Prediction for the He I 10830A Absorption Wing in the Coming Event of Eta Carinae

We propose an explanation to the puzzling appearance of a wide blue absorption wing in the He I 10830A P-Cygni profile of the massive binary star Eta Carinae several months before periastron passage. Our basic assumption is that the colliding winds region is responsible for the blue wing absorption. By fitting observations, we find that the maximum outflow velocity of this absorbing material is ~2300 km/s. We also assume that the secondary star is toward the observer at periastron passage. With a toy-model we achieve two significant results. (1) We show that the semimajor axis orientation we use can account for the appearance and evolution of the wide blue wing under our basic assumption. (2) We predict that the Doppler shift (the edge of the absorption profile) will reach a maximum 0-3 weeks before periastron passage, and not necessarily exactly at periastron passage or after periastron passage.

The Orientation of the Eta Carinae Binary System

We examine a variety of observations that shed light on the orientation of the semi-major axis of the Eta Carinae massive binary system. Under several assumptions we study the following observations: The Doppler shifts of some He I P-Cygni lines that is attributed to the secondarys wind, of one Fe II line that is attributed to the primarys wind, and of the Paschen emission lines which are attributed to the shocked primarys wind, are computed in our model and compared with observations. We compute the hydrogen column density toward the binary system in our model, and find a good agreement with that deduced from X-ray observations. We calculate the ionization of surrounding gas blobs by the radiation of the hotter secondary star, and compare with observations of a highly excited [Ar III] narrow line. We find that all of these support an orientation where for most of the time the secondary - the hotter less massive star - is behind the primary star. The secondary comes closer to the observer only for a short time near periastron passage, in its highly eccentric (e~0.9) orbit. Further supporting arguments are also listed, followed by discussion of some open and complicated issues.