Under the assumption that jets in active galactic nuclei are powered by accretion and the spin of the central supermassive black hole, we are able to reproduce the radio luminosity functions of high- and low-excitation galaxies. High-excitation galax
ies are explained as high-accretion rate but very low spin objects, while low-excitation galaxies have low accretion rates and bimodal spin distributions, with approximately half of the population having maximal spins. At higher redshifts (z~1), the prevalence of high accretion rate objects means the typical spin was lower, while in the present day Universe is dominated by low accretion rate objects, with bimodal spin distributions.
We use results from simulations of the production of magnetohydrodynamic jets around black holes to derive the cosmic spin history of the most massive black holes. We assume that the efficiency of jet production is a monotonic function of spin a, as
given by the simulations, and that the accretion flow geometry is similarly thick for quasars accreting close to the Eddington ratio and for low-excitation radio galaxies accreting at very small Eddington rates. We use the ratio of the comoving densities of the jet power and the radiated accretion power associated with supermassive black holes with Mbh>~10^8 Msol to estimate the cosmic history of the characteristic spin a. The evolution of this ratio, which increases with decreasing z, is consistent with a picture where the z~0 active galactic nuclei have typically higher spins than those at z~2 (with typical values a~0.35-0.95 and a~0.0-0.25 respectively). We discuss the implications in terms of the relative importance of accretion and mergers in the growth of supermassive black holes with Mbh>~10^8 Msol.
We use recent progress in simulating the production of magnetohydrodynamic jets around black holes to derive the cosmic spin history of the most massive black holes, with masses >~10^8 Msol. Assuming the jet efficiency depends on spin a, we can appro
ximately reproduce the observed `radio loudness of quasars and the local radio luminosity function. Using the X-ray luminosity function and the local mass function of supermassive black holes, SMBHs we can reproduce the individual radio luminosity functions of radio sources showing high- and low-excitation narrow emission lines. The data favour spin distributions that are bimodal, with one component around spin zero and the other close to maximal spin. In the low-excitation galaxies, the two components have similar amplitudes. For the high-excitation galaxies, the amplitude of the high-spin peak is typically much smaller than that of the low-spin peak. A bimodality should be seen in the radio loudness of quasars. We predict that the low-excitation galaxies are dominated by SMBHs with masses >~10^8 Msol, down to radio luminosity densities ~10^21 W Hz-1 sr-1 at 1.4~GHz. Our model is also able to predict the radio luminosity function at z=1, and predicts it to be dominated by high-excitation galaxies above luminosity densities >~10^26 W Hz-1 sr-1, in full agreement with the observations. From our parametrisation and using the best fitting jet efficiencies there is marginal evidence for evolution in spin: the mean spin increases slightly from <a>~0.25 at z=1 to <a>~0.35 at z=0, and the fraction of SMBHs with a>=0.5 increases from 0.16+-0.03 at z=1 to 0.24+-0.09 at z=0. Our results are in excellent agreement with the mean radiative efficiency of quasars, as well as recent cosmological simulations. We discuss the implications in terms of accretion and SMBH mergers, and galactic black holes (Abridged).
