The Australian Square Kilometer Array Pathfinder (ASKAP) will revolutionise our knowledge of gas-rich galaxies in the Universe. Here we present predictions for two proposed extragalactic ASKAP neutral hydrogen (HI) emission-line surveys, based on sem
i-analytic models applied to cosmological N-body simulations. The ASKAP HI All-Sky Survey, known as WALLABY, is a shallow 3 Pi survey (z = 0 - 0.26) which will probe the mass and dynamics of over 600,000 galaxies. A much deeper small-area HI survey, called DINGO, aims to trace the evolution of HI from z = 0 - 0.43, a cosmological volume of 40 million Mpc^3, detecting potentially 100,000 galaxies. The high-sensitivity 30 antenna ASKAP core (diameter ~2 km) will provide an angular resolution of 30 arcsec (at z=0). Our simulations show that the majority of galaxies detected in WALLABY (87.5%) will be resolved. About 5000 galaxies will be well resolved, i.e. more than five beams (2.5 arcmin) across the major axis, enabling kinematic studies of their gaseous disks. This number would rise to 160,000 galaxies if all 36 ASKAP antennas could be used; the additional six antennas provide baselines up to 6 km, resulting in an angular resolution of 10 arcsec. For DINGO this increased resolution is highly desirable to minimise source confusion; reducing confusion rates from a maximum of 10% of sources at the survey edge to 3%. We estimate that the sources detected by WALLABY and DINGO will span four orders of magnitude in total halo mass (from 10^{11} to 10^{15} Msol) and nearly seven orders of magnitude in stellar mass (from 10^{5} to 10^{12} Msol), allowing us to investigate the process of galaxy formation across the last four billion years.
We use a combination of three large N-body simulations to investigate the dependence of dark matter halo concentrations on halo mass and redshift in the WMAP year 5 cosmology. The median relation between concentration and mass is adequately described
by a power-law for halo masses in the range 10^11 - 10^15 Msol/h and redshifts z < 2, regardless of whether the halo density profiles are fit using NFW or Einasto profiles. Compared with recent analyses of the Millennium Simulation, which uses a value of sigma_8 that is higher than allowed by WMAP5, z = 0 halo concentrations are reduced by factors ranging from 23 per cent at 10^11 Msol/h to 16 per cent at 10^14 Msol/h. The predicted concentrations are much lower than inferred from X-ray observations of groups and clusters.
We discuss the possibility of performing a substantial spectroscopic galaxy redshift survey selected via the 21cm emission from neutral hydrogen using the Five-hundred metre Aperture Spherical Telescope (FAST) to be built in China. We consider issues
related to the estimation of the source counts and optimizations of the survey, and discuss the constraints on cosmological models that such a survey could provide. We find that a survey taking around two years could detect ~10^7 galaxies with an average redshift of ~0.15 making the survey complementary to those already carried out at optical wavelengths. These conservative estimates have used the z=0 HI mass function and have ignored the possibility of evolution. The results could be used to constrain Gamma = (Omega_m h) to 5 per cent and the spectral index, n_s, to 7 per cent independent of cosmic microwave background data. If we also use simulated power spectra from the Planck satellite, we can constrain w to be within 5 per cent of -1.
