Temporal scaling in information propagation

For the study of information propagation, one fundamental problem is uncovering universal laws governing the dynamics of information propagation. This problem, from the microscopic perspective, is formulated as estimating the propagation probability that a piece of information propagates from one individual to another. Such a propagation probability generally depends on two major classes of factors: the intrinsic attractiveness of information and the interactions between individuals. Despite the fact that the temporal effect of attractiveness is widely studied, temporal laws underlying individual interactions remain unclear, causing inaccurate prediction of information propagation on evolving social networks. In this report, we empirically study the dynamics of information propagation, using the dataset from a population-scale social media website. We discover a temporal scaling in information propagation: the probability a message propagates between two individuals decays with the length of time latency since their latest interaction, obeying a power-law rule. Leveraging the scaling law, we further propose a temporal model to estimate future propagation probabilities between individuals, reducing the error rate of information propagation prediction from 6.7% to 2.6% and improving viral marketing with 9.7% incremental customers.

Potential Theory for Directed Networks

Uncovering factors underlying the network formation is a long-standing challenge for data mining and network analysis. In particular, the microscopic organizing principles of directed networks are less understood than those of undirected networks. This article proposes a hypothesis named potential theory, which assumes that every directed link corresponds to a decrease of a unit potential and subgraphs with definable potential values for all nodes are preferred. Combining the potential theory with the clustering and homophily mechanisms, it is deduced that the Bi-fan structure consisting of 4 nodes and 4 directed links is the most favored local structure in directed networks. Our hypothesis receives strongly positive supports from extensive experiments on 15 directed networks drawn from disparate fields, as indicated by the most accurate and robust performance of Bi-fan predictor within the link prediction framework. In summary, our main contribution is twofold: (i) We propose a new mechanism for the local organization of directed networks; (ii) We design the corresponding link prediction algorithm, which can not only testify our hypothesis, but also find out direct applications in missing link prediction and friendship recommendation.