The recent discovery of a neutron star accretor in the ultra-luminous X-ray source M82 X-2 challenges our understanding of high-mass X-ray binary formation and evolution. By combining binary population synthesis and detailed mass-transfer models, how
ever, we show that the binary parameters of M82 X-2 are not surprising provided non-conservative mass transfer is allowed. Specifically, the donor-mass lower limit and orbital period measured for M82 X-2 lie near the most probable values predicted by population synthesis models, and systems such as M82 X-2 should exist in approximately 13% of the galaxies with a star-formation history similar to M82. We conclude that the binary system that formed M82 X-2 is most likely less than 50 Myr old and contains a donor star which had an initial mass of approximately 8-10 M$_odot$, while the NSs progenitor star had an initial mass in the $8-25,rm M_{odot}$ range. The donor star still currently resides on the main sequence, and is capable of continued MT on the thermal timescale, while in the ultra-luminous X-ray regime, for as long as 400,000 years.
We introduce a new Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach designed for efficient sampling of highly correlated and multimodal posteriors. Parallel tempering, though effective, is a costly technique for sampling such posteriors. Our approach minimiz
es the use of parallel tempering, only using it for a short time to tune a new jump proposal. For complex posteriors we find efficiency improvements up to a factor of ~13. The estimation of parameters of gravitational-wave signals measured by ground-based detectors is currently done through Bayesian inference with MCMC one of the leading sampling methods. Posteriors for these signals are typically multimodal with strong non-linear correlations, making sampling difficult. As we enter the advanced-detector era, improved sensitivities and wider bandwidths will drastically increase the computational cost of analyses, demanding more efficient search algorithms to meet these challenges.
An up-to-date catalog of nearby galaxies considered as hosts of binary compact objects is provided with complete information about sky position, distance, extinction-corrected blue luminosity and error estimates. With our current understanding of bin
ary evolution, rates of formation and coalescence for binary compact objects scale with massive-star formation and hence the (extinction-corrected) blue luminosity of host galaxies. Coalescence events in binary compact objects are among the most promising gravitational-wave sources for ground-based gravitational-wave detectors such as LIGO. Our catalog and associated error estimates are important for the interpretation of analyses, carried out for LIGO, to constrain the rates of compact binary coalescence, given an astrophysical population model for the sources considered. We discuss how the notion of effective distance, created to account for the antenna pattern of a gravitational-wave detector, must be used in conjunction with our catalog. We note that the catalog provided can be used on other astronomical analysis of populations that scale with galaxy blue luminosity.
