A Multilayer Network Model of the Coevolution of the Spread of a Disease and Competing Opinions

During the COVID-19 pandemic, conflicting opinions on physical distancing swept across social media, affecting both human behavior and the spread of COVID-19. Inspired by such phenomena, we construct a two-layer multiplex network for the coupled spread of a disease and conflicting opinions. We model each process as a contagion. On one layer, we consider the concurrent evolution of two opinions -- pro-physical-distancing and anti-physical-distancing -- that compete with each other and have mutual immunity to each other. The disease evolves on the other layer, and individuals are less likely (respectively, more likely) to become infected when they adopt the pro-physical-distancing (respectively, anti-physical-distancing) opinion. We develop approximations of mean-field type by generalizing monolayer pair approximations to multilayer networks; these approximations agree well with Monte Carlo simulations for a broad range of parameters and several network structures. Through numerical simulations, we illustrate the influence of opinion dynamics on the spread of the disease from complex interactions both between the two conflicting opinions and between the opinions and the disease. We find that lengthening the duration that individuals hold an opinion may help suppress disease transmission, and we demonstrate that increasing the cross-layer correlations or intra-layer correlations of node degrees may lead to fewer individuals becoming infected with the disease.

Forecasting Sequential Data using Consistent Koopman Autoencoders

Recurrent neural networks are widely used on time series data, yet such models often ignore the underlying physical structures in such sequences. A new class of physics-based methods related to Koopman theory has been introduced, offering an alternative for processing nonlinear dynamical systems. In this work, we propose a novel Consistent Koopman Autoencoder model which, unlike the majority of existing work, leverages the forward and backward dynamics. Key to our approach is a new analysis which explores the interplay between consistent dynamics and their associated Koopman operators. Our network is directly related to the derived analysis, and its computational requirements are comparable to other baselines. We evaluate our method on a wide range of high-dimensional and short-term dependent problems, and it achieves accurate estimates for significant prediction horizons, while also being robust to noise.