The extended Kepler mission, K2, is now providing photometry of new fields every three months in a search for transiting planets. In a recent study, Foreman-Mackey and collaborators presented a list of 36 planet candidates orbiting 31 stars in K2 Cam
paign 1. In this contribution, we present stellar and planetary properties for all systems. We combine ground-based seeing-limited survey data and adaptive optics imaging with an automated transit analysis scheme to validate 21 candidates as planets, 17 for the first time, and identify 6 candidates as likely false positives. Of particular interest is K2-18 (EPIC 201912552), a bright (K=8.9) M2.8 dwarf hosting a 2.23 pm 0.25 R_Earth planet with T_eq = 272 pm 15 K and an orbital period of 33 days. We also present two new open-source software packages which enable this analysis. The first, isochrones, is a flexible tool for fitting theoretical stellar models to observational data to determine stellar properties using a nested sampling scheme to capture the multimodal nature of the posterior distributions of the physical parameters of stars that may plausibly be evolved. The second is vespa, a new general-purpose procedure to calculate false positive probabilities and statistically validate transiting exoplanets.
No true extrasolar Earth analog is known. Hundreds of planets have been found around Sun-like stars that are either Earth-sized but on shorter periods, or else on year-long orbits but somewhat larger. Under strong assumptions, exoplanet catalogs have
been used to make an extrapolated estimate of the rate at which Sun-like stars host Earth analogs. These studies are complicated by the fact that every catalog is censored by non-trivial selection effects and detection efficiencies, and every property (period, radius, etc.) is measured noisily. Here we present a general hierarchical probabilistic framework for making justified inferences about the population of exoplanets, taking into account survey completeness and, for the first time, observational uncertainties. We are able to make fewer assumptions about the distribution than previous studies; we only require that the occurrence rate density be a smooth function of period and radius (employing a Gaussian process). By applying our method to synthetic catalogs, we demonstrate that it produces more accurate estimates of the whole population than standard procedures based on weighting by inverse detection efficiency. We apply the method to an existing catalog of small planet candidates around G dwarf stars (Petigura et al. 2013). We confirm a previous result that the radius distribution changes slope near Earths radius. We find that the rate density of Earth analogs is about 0.02 (per star per natural logarithmic bin in period and radius) with large uncertainty. This number is much smaller than previous estimates made with the same data but stronger assumptions.
The exoplanets known as hot Jupiters---Jupiter-sized planets with periods less than 10 days---likely are relics of dynamical processes that shape all planetary system architectures. Socrates et al. (2012) argued that high eccentricity migration (HEM)
mechanisms proposed for situating these close-in planets should produce an observable population of highly eccentric proto-hot Jupiters that have not yet tidally circularized. HEM should also create failed-hot Jupiters, with periapses just beyond the influence of fast circularization. Using the technique we previously presented for measuring eccentricities from photometry (the photoeccentric effect), we are distilling a collection of eccentric proto- and failed-hot Jupiters from the Kepler Objects of Interest (KOI). Here we present the first, KOI-1474.01, which has a long orbital period (69.7340 days) and a large eccentricity e = 0.81+0.10/-0.07, skirting the proto-hot Jupiter boundary. Combining Kepler photometry, ground-based spectroscopy, and stellar evolution models, we characterize host KOI-1474 as a rapidly-rotating F-star. Statistical arguments reveal that the transiting candidate has a low false-positive probability of 3.1%. KOI-1474.01 also exhibits transit timing variations of order an hour. We explore characteristics of the third-body perturber, which is possibly the smoking-gun cause of KOI-1474.01s large eccentricity. Using the host-stars rotation period, radius, and projected rotational velocity, we find KOI-1474.01s orbit is marginally consistent with aligned with the stellar spin axis, although a reanalysis is warranted with future additional data. Finally, we discuss how the number and existence of proto-hot Jupiters will not only demonstrate that hot Jupiters migrate via HEM, but also shed light on the typical timescale for the mechanism.
