For machine learning systems to be reliable, we must understand their performance in unseen, out-of-distribution environments. In this paper, we empirically show that out-of-distribution performance is strongly correlated with in-distribution perform
ance for a wide range of models and distribution shifts. Specifically, we demonstrate strong correlations between in-distribution and out-of-distribution performance on variants of CIFAR-10 & ImageNet, a synthetic pose estimation task derived from YCB objects, satellite imagery classification in FMoW-WILDS, and wildlife classification in iWildCam-WILDS. The strong correlations hold across model architectures, hyperparameters, training set size, and training duration, and are more precise than what is expected from existing domain adaptation theory. To complete the picture, we also investigate cases where the correlation is weaker, for instance some synthetic distribution shifts from CIFAR-10-C and the tissue classification dataset Camelyon17-WILDS. Finally, we provide a candidate theory based on a Gaussian data model that shows how changes in the data covariance arising from distribution shift can affect the observed correlations.
Conventional CNNs for texture synthesis consist of a sequence of (de)-convolution and up/down-sampling layers, where each layer operates locally and lacks the ability to capture the long-term structural dependency required by texture synthesis. Thus,
they often simply enlarge the input texture, rather than perform reasonable synthesis. As a compromise, many recent methods sacrifice generalizability by training and testing on the same single (or fixed set of) texture image(s), resulting in huge re-training time costs for unseen images. In this work, based on the discovery that the assembling/stitching operation in traditional texture synthesis is analogous to a transposed convolution operation, we propose a novel way of using transposed convolution operation. Specifically, we directly treat the whole encoded feature map of the input texture as transposed convolution filters and the features self-similarity map, which captures the auto-correlation information, as input to the transposed convolution. Such a design allows our framework, once trained, to be generalizable to perform synthesis of unseen textures with a single forward pass in nearly real-time. Our method achieves state-of-the-art texture synthesis quality based on various metrics. While self-similarity helps preserve the input textures regular structural patterns, our framework can also take random noise maps for irregular input textures instead of self-similarity maps as transposed convolution inputs. It allows to get more diverse results as well as generate arbitrarily large texture outputs by directly sampling large noise maps in a single pass as well.
We study how robust current ImageNet models are to distribution shifts arising from natural variations in datasets. Most research on robustness focuses on synthetic image perturbations (noise, simulated weather artifacts, adversarial examples, etc.),
which leaves open how robustness on synthetic distribution shift relates to distribution shift arising in real data. Informed by an evaluation of 204 ImageNet models in 213 different test conditions, we find that there is often little to no transfer of robustness from current synthetic to natural distribution shift. Moreover, most current techniques provide no robustness to the natural distribution shifts in our testbed. The main exception is training on larger and more diverse datasets, which in multiple cases increases robustness, but is still far from closing the performance gaps. Our results indicate that distribution shifts arising in real data are currently an open research problem. We provide our testbed and data as a resource for future work at https://modestyachts.github.io/imagenet-testbed/ .
