Studying the development of malignant tumours, it is important to know and predict the proportions of different cell types in tissue samples. Knowing the expected temporal evolution of the proportion of normal tissue cells, compared to stem-like and
non-stem like cancer cells, gives an indication about the progression of the disease and indicates the expected response to interventions with drugs. Such processes have been modeled using Markov processes. An essential step for the simulation of such models is then the determination of state transition probabilities. We here consider the experimentally more realistic scenario in which the measurement of cell population sizes is noisy, leading to a particular hidden Markov model. In this context, randomness in measurement is related to noisy measurements, which are used for the estimation of the transition probability matrix. Randomness in sampling, on the other hand, is here related to the error in estimating the state probability from small cell populations. Using aggregated data of fluorescence-activated cell sorting (FACS) measurement, we develop a minimum mean square error estimator (MMSE) and maximum likelihood (ML) estimator and formulate two problems to find the minimum number of required samples and measurements to guarantee the accuracy of predicted population sizes using a transition probability matrix estimated from noisy data. We analyze the properties of two estimators for different noise distributions and prove an optimal solution for Gaussian distributions with the MMSE. Our numerical results show, that for noisy measurements the convergence mechanism of transition probabilities and steady states differ widely from the real values if one uses the standard deterministic approach in which measurements are assumed to be noise free.
While ordinary differential equations (ODEs) form the conceptual framework for modelling many cellular processes, specific situations demand stochastic models to capture the influence of noise. The most common formulation of stochastic models for bio
chemical networks is the chemical master equation (CME). While stochastic simulations are a practical way to realise the CME, analytical approximations offer more insight into the influence of noise. Towards that end, the two-moment approximation (2MA) is a promising addition to the established analytical approaches including the chemical Langevin equation (CLE) and the related linear noise approximation (LNA). The 2MA approach directly tracks the mean and (co)variance which are coupled in general. This coupling is not obvious in CME and CLE and ignored by LNA and conventional ODE models. We extend previous derivations of 2MA by allowing a) non-elementary reactions and b) relative concentrations. Often, several elementary reactions are approximated by a single step. Furthermore, practical situations often require the use relative concentrations. We investigate the applicability of the 2MA approach to the well established fission yeast cell cycle model. Our analytical model reproduces the clustering of cycle times observed in experiments. This is explained through multiple resettings of MPF, caused by the coupling between mean and (co)variance, near the G2/M transition.
Motivated by applications in systems biology, we seek a probabilistic framework based on Markov processes to represent intracellular processes. We review the formal relationships between different stochastic models referred to in the systems biology
literature. As part of this review, we present a novel derivation of the differential Chapman-Kolmogorov equation for a general multidimensional Markov process made up of both continuous and jump processes. We start with the definition of a time-derivative for a probability density but place no restrictions on the probability distribution, in particular, we do not assume it to be confined to a region that has a surface (on which the probability is zero). In our derivation, the master equation gives the jump part of the Markov process while the Fokker-Planck equation gives the continuous part. We thereby sketch a {}``family tree for stochastic models in systems biology, providing explicit derivations of their formal relationship and clarifying assumptions involved.
