We make a frequentist analysis of the parameter space of the NUHM2, in which the soft supersymmetry (SUSY)-breaking contributions to the masses of the two Higgs multiplets, $m^2_{H_{u,d}}$, vary independently from the universal soft SUSY-breaking con
tributions $m^2_0$ to the masses of squarks and sleptons. Our analysis uses the MultiNest sampling algorithm with over $4 times 10^8$ points to sample the NUHM2 parameter space. It includes the ATLAS and CMS Higgs mass measurements as well as their searches for supersymmetric jets + MET signals using the full LHC Run~1 data, the measurements of $B_s to mu^+ mu^-$ by LHCb and CMS together with other B-physics observables, electroweak precision observables and the XENON100 and LUX searches for spin-independent dark matter scattering. We find that the preferred regions of the NUHM2 parameter space have negative SUSY-breaking scalar masses squared for squarks and sleptons, $m_0^2 < 0$, as well as $m^2_{H_u} < m^2_{H_d} < 0$. The tension present in the CMSSM and NUHM1 between the supersymmetric interpretation of $g_mu - 2$ and the absence to date of SUSY at the LHC is not significantly alleviated in the NUHM2. We find that the minimum $chi^2 = 32.5$ with 21 degrees of freedom (dof) in the NUHM2, to be compared with $chi^2/{rm dof} = 35.0/23$ in the CMSSM, and $chi^2/{rm dof} = 32.7/22$ in the NUHM1. We find that the one-dimensional likelihood functions for sparticle masses and other observables are similar to those found previously in the CMSSM and NUHM1.
We analyze the impact of data from the full Run 1 of the LHC at 7 and 8 TeV on the CMSSM with mu > 0 and < 0 and the NUHM1 with mu > 0, incorporating the constraints imposed by other experiments such as precision electroweak measurements, flavour mea
surements, the cosmological density of cold dark matter and the direct search for the scattering of dark matter particles in the LUX experiment. We use the following results from the LHC experiments: ATLAS searches for events with MET accompanied by jets with the full 7 and 8 TeV data, the ATLAS and CMS measurements of the mass of the Higgs boson, the CMS searches for heavy neutral Higgs bosons and a combination of the LHCb and CMS measurements of B_s to mu+mu- and B_d to mu+mu-. Our results are based on samplings of the parameter spaces of the CMSSM for both mu>0 and mu<0 and of the NUHM1 for mu > 0 with 6.8 x 10^6, 6.2 x 10^6 and 1.6 x 10^7 points, respectively, obtained using the MultiNest tool. The impact of the Higgs mass constraint is assessed using FeynHiggs 2.10.0, which provides an improved prediction for the masses of the MSSM Higgs bosons in the region of heavy squark masses. It yields in general larger values of M_h than previo
We make a frequentist analysis of the parameter space of the CMSSM and NUHM1, using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with 95 (221) million points to sample the CMSSM (NUHM1) parameter spaces. Our analysis includes the ATLAS search for supersymmetric
jets + MET signals using ~ 5/fb of LHC data at 7 TeV, which we apply using PYTHIA and a Delphes implementation that we validate in the relevant parameter regions of the CMSSM and NUHM1. Our analysis also includes the constraint imposed by searches for B_s to mu+mu- by LHCb, CMS, ATLAS and CDF, and the limit on spin-independent dark matter scattering from 225 live days of XENON100 data. We assume M_h ~ 125 GeV, and use a full set of electroweak precision and other flavour-physics observables, as well as the cold dark matter density constraint. The ATLAS 5/fb constraint has relatively limited effects on the 68 and 95% CL regions in the (m_0, m_1/2) planes of the CMSSM and NUHM1. The new B_s to mu+mu- constraint has greater impacts on these CL regions, and also impacts significantly the 68 and 95% CL regions in the (M_A, tan beta) planes of both models, reducing the best-fit values of tan beta. The recent XENON100 data eliminate the focus-point region in the CMSSM and affect the 68 and 95% CL regions in the NUHM1. In combination, these new constraints reduce the best-fit values of m_0, m_1/2 in the CMSSM, and increase the global chi^2 from 31.0 to 32.8, reducing the p-value from 12% to 8.5%. In the case of the NUHM1, they have little effect on the best-fit values of m_0, m_1/2, but increase the global chi^2 from 28.9 to 31.3, thereby reducing the p-value from 15% to 9.1%.
Global frequentist fits to the CMSSM and NUHM1 using the MasterCode framework predicted m_h simeq 119 GeV in fits incorporating the g_mu-2 constraint and simeq 126 GeV without it. Recent results by ATLAS and CMS could be compatible with a Standard
Model-like Higgs boson around m_h simeq 125 GeV. We use the previous MasterCode analysis to calculate the likelihood for a measurement of any nominal Higgs mass within the range of 115 to 130 GeV. Assuming a Higgs mass measurement at m_h simeq 125 GeV, we display updated global likelihood contours in the (m_0, m_{1/2}) and other parameter planes of the CMSSM and NUHM1, and present updated likelihood functions for m_gluino, m_squark, B to mu mu, and the spin-independent dark matter cross section sigma^si. The implications of dropping g_mu-2 from the fits are also discussed. We furthermore comment on a hypothetical measurement of m_h simeq 119 GeV.
