Crop yield is affected by various soil and environmental parameters and can vary significantly. Therefore, a crop yield estimation model which can predict pre-harvest yield is required for food security. The study is conducted on tea forms operating
under National Tea Research Institute, Pakistan. The data is recorded on monthly basis for ten years period. The parameters collected are minimum and maximum temperature, humidity, rainfall, PH level of the soil, usage of pesticide and labor expertise. The design of model incorporated all of these parameters and identified the parameters which are most crucial for yield predictions. Feature transformation is performed to obtain better performing model. The designed model is based on an ensemble of neural networks and provided an R-squared of 0.9461 and RMSE of 0.1204 indicating the usability of the proposed model in yield forecasting based on surface and environmental parameters.
Identification of plant disease is usually done through visual inspection or during laboratory examination which causes delays resulting in yield loss by the time identification is complete. On the other hand, complex deep learning models perform the
task with reasonable performance but due to their large size and high computational requirements, they are not suited to mobile and handheld devices. Our proposed approach contributes automated identification of plant diseases which follows a sequence of steps involving pre-processing, segmentation of diseased leaf area, calculation of features based on the Gray-Level Co-occurrence Matrix (GLCM), feature selection and classification. In this study, six color features and twenty-two texture features have been calculated. Support vector machines is used to perform one-vs-one classification of plant disease. The proposed model of disease identification provides an accuracy of 98.79% with a standard deviation of 0.57 on 10-fold cross-validation. The accuracy on a self-collected dataset is 82.47% for disease identification and 91.40% for healthy and diseased classification. The reported performance measures are better or comparable to the existing approaches and highest among the feature-based methods, presenting it as the most suitable method to automated leaf-based plant disease identification. This prototype system can be extended by adding more disease categories or targeting specific crop or disease categories.
Many state estimation algorithms must be tuned given the state space process and observation models, the process and observation noise parameters must be chosen. Conventional tuning approaches rely on heuristic hand-tuning or gradient-based optimizat
ion techniques to minimize a performance cost function. However, the relationship between tuned noise values and estimator performance is highly nonlinear and stochastic. Therefore, the tuning solutions can easily get trapped in local minima, which can lead to poor choices of noise parameters and suboptimal estimator performance. This paper describes how Bayesian Optimization (BO) can overcome these issues. BO poses optimization as a Bayesian search problem for a stochastic ``black box cost function, where the goal is to search the solution space to maximize the probability of improving the current best solution. As such, BO offers a principled approach to optimization-based estimator tuning in the presence of local minima and performance stochasticity. While extended Kalman filters (EKFs) are the main focus of this work, BO can be similarly used to tune other related state space filters. The method presented here uses performance metrics derived from normalized innovation squared (NIS) filter residuals obtained via sensor data, which renders knowledge of ground-truth states unnecessary. The robustness, accuracy, and reliability of BO-based tuning is illustrated on practical nonlinear state estimation problems,losed-loop aero-robotic control.
This work develops novel strategies for optimal planning with semantic observations using continuous state partially observable markov decision processes (CPOMDPs). Two major innovations are presented in relation to Gaussian mixture (GM) CPOMDP polic
y approximation methods. While existing methods have many desirable theoretical properties, they are unable to efficiently represent and reason over hybrid continuous-discrete probabilistic models. The first major innovation is the derivation of closed-form variational Bayes GM approximations of Point-Based Value Iteration Bellman policy backups, using softmax models of continuous-discrete semantic observation probabilities. A key benefit of this approach is that dynamic decision-making tasks can be performed with complex non-Gaussian uncertainties, while also exploiting continuous dynamic state space models (thus avoiding cumbersome and costly discretization). The second major innovation is a new clustering-based technique for mixture condensation that scales well to very large GM policy functions and belief functions. Simulation results for a target search and interception task with semantic observations show that the GM policies resulting from these innovations are more effective than those produced by other state of the art policy approximations, but require significantly less modeling overhead and online runtime cost. Additional results show the robustness of this approach to model errors and scaling to higher dimensions.
This note considers softmax parameter estimation when little/no labeled training data is available, but a priori information about the relative geometry of class label log-odds boundaries is available. It is shown that `data-free softmax model synthe
sis corresponds to solving a linear system of parameter equations, wherein desired dominant class log-odds boundaries are encoded via convex polytopes that decompose the input feature space. When solvable, the linear equations yield closed-form softmax parameter solution families using class boundary polytope specifications only. This allows softmax parameter learning to be implemented without expensive brute force data sampling and numerical optimization. The linear equations can also be adapted to constrained maximum likelihood estimation in data-sparse settings. Since solutions may also fail to exist for the linear parameter equations derived from certain polytope specifications, it is thus also shown that there exist probabilistic classification problems over m convexly separable classes for which the log-odds boundaries cannot be learned using an m-class softmax model.
This paper describes a novel communication-spare cooperative localization algorithm for a team of mobile unmanned robotic vehicles. Exploiting an event-based estimation paradigm, robots only send measurements to neighbors when the expected innovation
for state estimation is high. Since agents know the event-triggering condition for measurements to be sent, the lack of a measurement is thus also informative and fused into state estimates. The robots use a Covariance Intersection (CI) mechanism to occasionally synchronize their local estimates of the full network state. In addition, heuristic balancing dynamics on the robots CI-triggering thresholds ensure that, in large diameter networks, the local error covariances remains below desired bounds across the network. Simulations on both linear and nonlinear dynamics/measurement models show that the event-triggering approach achieves nearly optimal state estimation performance in a wide range of operating conditions, even when using only a fraction of the communication cost required by conventional full data sharing. The robustness of the proposed approach to lossy communications, as well as the relationship between network topology and CI-based synchronization requirements, are also examined.
Recent advances in communications, mobile computing, and artificial intelligence have greatly expanded the application space of intelligent distributed sensor networks. This in turn motivates the development of generalized Bayesian decentralized data
fusion (DDF) algorithms for robust and efficient information sharing among autonomous agents using probabilistic belief models. However, DDF is significantly challenging to implement for general real-world applications requiring the use of dynamic/ad hoc network topologies and complex belief models, such as Gaussian mixtures or hybrid Bayesian networks. To tackle these issues, we first discuss some new key mathematical insights about exact DDF and conservative approximations to DDF. These insights are then used to develop novel generalized DDF algorithms for complex beliefs based on mixture pdfs and conditional factors. Numerical examples motivated by multi-robot target search demonstrate that our methods lead to significantly better fusion results, and thus have great potential to enhance distributed intelligent reasoning in sensor networks.
