The last decade has seen an explosion in models that describe phenomena in systems medicine. Such models are especially useful for studying signaling pathways, such as the Wnt pathway. In this chapter we use the Wnt pathway to showcase current mathem
atical and statistical techniques that enable modelers to gain insight into (models of) gene regulation, and generate testable predictions. We introduce a range of modeling frameworks, but focus on ordinary differential equation (ODE) models since they remain the most widely used approach in systems biology and medicine and continue to offer great potential. We present methods for the analysis of a single model, comprising applications of standard dynamical systems approaches such as nondimensionalization, steady state, asymptotic and sensitivity analysis, and more recent statistical and algebraic approaches to compare models with data. We present parameter estimation and model comparison techniques, focusing on Bayesian analysis and coplanarity via algebraic geometry. Our intention is that this (non exhaustive) review may serve as a useful starting point for the analysis of models in systems medicine.
The likelihood-free sequential Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithms, are increasingly popular inference tools for complex biological models. Such algorithms proceed by constructing a succession of probability distributions over the param
eter space conditional upon the simulated data lying in an $epsilon$--ball around the observed data, for decreasing values of the threshold $epsilon$. While in theory, the distributions (starting from a suitably defined prior) will converge towards the unknown posterior as $epsilon$ tends to zero, the exact sequence of thresholds can impact upon the computational efficiency and success of a particular application. In particular, we show here that the current preferred method of choosing thresholds as a pre-determined quantile of the distances between simulated and observed data from the previous population, can lead to the inferred posterior distribution being very different to the true posterior. Threshold selection thus remains an important challenge. Here we propose an automated and adaptive method that allows us to balance the need to minimise the threshold with computational efficiency. Moreover, our method which centres around predicting the threshold - acceptance rate curve using the unscented transform, enables us to avoid local minima - a problem that has plagued previous threshold schemes.
For nearly any challenging scientific problem evaluation of the likelihood is problematic if not impossible. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) allows us to employ the whole Bayesian formalism to problems where we can use simulations from a model
, but cannot evaluate the likelihood directly. When summary statistics of real and simulated data are compared --- rather than the data directly --- information is lost, unless the summary statistics are sufficient. Here we employ an information-theoretical framework that can be used to construct (approximately) sufficient statistics by combining different statistics until the loss of information is minimized. Such sufficient sets of statistics are constructed for both parameter estimation and model selection problems. We apply our approach to a range of illustrative and real-world model selection problems.
The phenomena of stochasticity in biochemical processes have been intriguing life scientists for the past few decades. We now know that living cells take advantage of stochasticity in some cases and counteract stochastic effects in others. The source
of intrinsic stochasticity in biomolecular systems are random timings of individual reactions, which cumulatively drive the variability in outputs of such systems. Despite the acknowledged relevance of stochasticity in the functioning of living cells no rigorous method have been proposed to precisely identify sources of variability. In this paper we propose a novel methodology that allows us to calculate contributions of individual reactions into the variability of a systems output. We demonstrate that some reactions have dramatically different effects on noise than others. Surprisingly, in the class of open conversion systems that serve as an approximate model of signal transduction, the degradation of an output contributes half of the total noise. We also demonstrate the importance of degradation in other relevant systems and propose a degradation feedback control mechanism that has the capability of an effective noise suppression. Application of our method to some well studied biochemical systems such as: gene expression, Michaelis-Menten enzyme kinetics, and the p53 system indicates that our methodology reveals an unprecedented insight into the origins of variability in biochemical systems. For many systems an analytical decomposition is not available; therefore the method has been implemented as a Matlab package and is available from the authors upon request.
