Searches for electromagnetic counterparts of gravitational-wave signals have redoubled since the first detection in 2017 of a binary neutron star merger with a gamma-ray burst, optical/infrared kilonova, and panchromatic afterglow. Yet, one LIGO/Virg
o observing run later, there has not yet been a second, secure identification of an electromagnetic counterpart. This is not surprising given that the localization uncertainties of events in LIGO and Virgos third observing run, O3, were much larger than predicted. We explain this by showing that improvements in data analysis that now allow LIGO/Virgo to detect weaker and hence more poorly-localized events have increased the overall number of detections, of which well-localized, gold-plated events make a smaller proportion overall. We present simulations of the next two LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA observing runs, O4 and O5, that are grounded in the statistics of O3 public alerts. To illustrate the significant impact that the updated predictions can have, we study the follow-up strategy for the Zwicky Transient Facility. Realistic and timely forecasting of gravitational-wave localization accuracy is paramount given the large commitments of telescope time and the need to prioritize which events are followed up. We include a data release of our simulated localizations as a public proposal planning resource for astronomers.
Current and future optical and near-infrared wide-field surveys have the potential of finding kilonovae, the optical and infrared counterparts to neutron star mergers, independently of gravitational-wave or high-energy gamma-ray burst triggers. The a
bility to discover fast and faint transients such as kilonovae largely depends on the area observed, the depth of those observations, the number of re-visits per field in a given time frame, and the filters adopted by the survey; it also depends on the ability to perform rapid follow-up observations to confirm the nature of the transients. In this work, we assess kilonova detectability in existing simulations of the LSST strategy for the Vera C. Rubin Wide Fast Deep survey, with focus on comparing rolling to baseline cadences. Although currently available cadences can enable the detection of more than 300 kilonovae out to 1400 Mpc over the ten-year survey, we can expect only 3-32 kilonovae similar to GW170817 to be recognizable as fast-evolving transients. We also explore the detectability of kilonovae over the plausible parameter space, focusing on viewing angle and ejecta masses. We find that observations in redder izy bands are crucial for identification of nearby (within 300 Mpc) kilonovae that could be spectroscopically classified more easily than more distant sources. Rubins potential for serendipitous kilonova discovery could be increased by gain of efficiency with the employment of individual 30s exposures (as opposed to 2x15s snap pairs), with the addition of red-band observations coupled with same-night observations in g- or r-bands, and possibly with further development of a new rolling-cadence strategy.
In the past few years, new observations of neutron stars and neutron-star mergers have provided a wealth of data that allow one to constrain the equation of state of nuclear matter at densities above nuclear saturation density. However, most observat
ions were based on neutron stars with masses of about 1.4 solar masses, probing densities up to $sim$ 3-4 times the nuclear saturation density. Even higher densities are probed inside massive neutron stars such as PSR J0740+6620. Very recently, new radio observations provided an update to the mass estimate for PSR J0740+6620 and X-ray observations by the NICER and XMM telescopes constrained its radius. Based on these new measurements, we revisit our previous nuclear-physics multi-messenger astrophysics constraints and derive updated constraints on the equation of state describing the neutron-star interior. By combining astrophysical observations of two radio pulsars, two NICER measurements, the two gravitational-wave detections GW170817 and GW190425, detailed modeling of the kilonova AT2017gfo, as well as the gamma-ray burst GRB170817A, we are able to estimate the radius of a typical 1.4-solar mass neutron star to be $11.94^{+0.76}_{-0.87} rm{km}$ at 90% confidence. Our analysis allows us to revisit the upper bound on the maximum mass of neutron stars and disfavours the presence of a strong first-order phase transition from nuclear matter to exotic forms of matter, such as quark matter, inside neutron stars.
We present SNIascore, a deep-learning based method for spectroscopic classification of thermonuclear supernovae (SNe Ia) based on very low-resolution (R $sim100$) data. The goal of SNIascore is fully automated classification of SNe Ia with a very low
false-positive rate (FPR) so that human intervention can be greatly reduced in large-scale SN classification efforts, such as that undertaken by the public Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) Bright Transient Survey (BTS). We utilize a recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture with a combination of bidirectional long short-term memory and gated recurrent unit layers. SNIascore achieves a $<0.6%$ FPR while classifying up to $90%$ of the low-resolution SN Ia spectra obtained by the BTS. SNIascore simultaneously performs binary classification and predicts the redshifts of secure SNe Ia via regression (with a typical uncertainty of $<0.005$ in the range from $z = 0.01$ to $z = 0.12$). For the magnitude-limited ZTF BTS survey ($approx70%$ SNe Ia), deploying SNIascore reduces the amount of spectra in need of human classification or confirmation by $approx60%$. Furthermore, SNIascore allows SN Ia classifications to be automatically announced in real-time to the public immediately following a finished observation during the night.
While optical surveys regularly discover slow transients like supernovae on their own, the most common way to discover extragalactic fast transients, fading away in a few nights, is via follow-up observations of gamma-ray burst and gravitational-wave
triggers. However, wide-field surveys have the potential to also identify rapidly fading transients independently of such external triggers. The volumetric survey speed of the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) makes it sensitive to faint and fast-fading objects as kilonovae, the optical counterparts to binary neutron stars and neutron star-black hole mergers, out to almost 200Mpc. We introduce an open-source software infrastructure, the ZTF REaltime Search and Triggering, ZTFReST, designed to identify kilonovae and fast optical transients in ZTF data. Using the ZTF alert stream combined with forced photometry, we have implemented automated candidate ranking based on their photometric evolution and fitting to kilonova models. Automated triggering of follow-up systems, such as Las Cumbres Observatory, has also been implemented. In 13 months of science validation, we found several extragalactic fast transients independent of any external trigger (though some counterparts were identified later), including at least one supernova with post-shock cooling emission, two known afterglows with an associated gamma-ray burst, two known afterglows without any known gamma-ray counterpart, and three new fast-declining sources (ZTF20abtxwfx, ZTF20acozryr, and ZTF21aagwbjr) that are likely associated with GRB200817A, GRB201103B, and GRB210204A. However, we have not found any objects which appear to be kilonovae; therefore, we constrain the rate of GW170817-like kilonovae to $R < 900$Gpc$^{-3}$yr$^{-1}$. A framework such as ZTFReST could become a prime tool for kilonova and fast transient discovery with the Vera C. Rubin Observatory.
Searches for gravitational-wave counterparts have been going in earnest since GW170817 and the discovery of AT2017gfo. Since then, the lack of detection of other optical counterparts connected to binary neutron star or black hole - neutron star candi
dates has highlighted the need for a better discrimination criterion to support this effort. At the moment, the low-latency gravitational-wave alerts contain preliminary information about the binary properties and, hence, on whether a detected binary might have an electromagnetic counterpart. The current alert method is a classifier that estimates the probability that there is a debris disc outside the black hole created during the merger as well as the probability of a signal being a binary neutron star, a black hole - neutron star, a binary black hole or of terrestrial origin. In this work, we expand upon this approach to predict both the ejecta properties and provide contours of potential lightcurves for these events in order to improve follow-up observation strategy. The various sources of uncertainty are discussed, and we conclude that our ignorance about the ejecta composition and the insufficient constraint of the binary parameters, by the low-latency pipelines, represent the main limitations. To validate the method, we test our approach on real events from the second and third Advanced LIGO-Virgo observing runs.
The rise of multi-messenger astronomy has brought with it the need to exploit all available data streams and learn more about the astrophysical objects that fall within its breadth. One possible avenue is the search for serendipitous optical/near-inf
rared counterparts of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) and gravitational-wave (GW) signals, known as kilonovae. With surveys such as the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), which observes the sky with a cadence of ~ three days, the existing counterpart locations are likely to be observed; however, due to the significant amount of sky to explore, it is difficult to search for these fast-evolving candidates. Thus, it is beneficial to optimize the survey cadence for realtime kilonova identification and enable further photometric and spectroscopic observations. We explore how the cadence of wide field-of-view surveys like ZTF can be improved to facilitate such identifications. We show that with improved observational choices, e.g., the adoption of three epochs per night on a ~ nightly basis, and the prioritization of redder photometric bands, detection efficiencies improve by about a factor of two relative to the nominal cadence. We also provide realistic hypothetical constraints on the kilonova rate as a form of comparison between strategies, assuming that no kilonovae are detected throughout the long-term execution of the respective observing plan. These results demonstrate how an optimal use of ZTF increases the likelihood of kilonova discovery independent of GWs or GRBs, thereby allowing for a sensitive search with less interruption of its nominal cadence through Target of Opportunity programs.
We report the discovery of ZTF J2243+5242, an eclipsing double white dwarf binary with an orbital period of just $8.8$ minutes, the second known eclipsing binary with an orbital period less than ten minutes. The system likely consists of two low-mass
white dwarfs, and will merge in approximately 400,000 years to form either an isolated hot subdwarf or an R Coronae Borealis star. Like its $6.91, rm min$ counterpart, ZTF J1539+5027, ZTF J2243+5242 will be among the strongest gravitational wave sources detectable by the space-based gravitational-wave detector The Laser Space Interferometer Antenna (LISA) because its gravitational-wave frequency falls near the peak of LISAs sensitivity. Based on its estimated distance of $d=2120^{+131}_{-115},rm pc$, LISA should detect the source within its first few months of operation, and should achieve a signal-to-noise ratio of $87pm5$ after four years. We find component masses of $M_A= 0.349^{+0.093}_{-0.074},M_odot$ and $M_B=0.384^{+0.114}_{-0.074},M_odot$, radii of $R_A=0.0308^{+0.0026}_{-0.0025},R_odot$ and $R_B = 0.0291^{+0.0032}_{-0.0024},R_odot$, and effective temperatures of $T_A=22200^{+1800}_{-1600},rm K$ and $T_B=16200^{+1200}_{-1000},rm K$. We determined all of these properties, and the distance to this system, using only photometric measurements, demonstrating a feasible way to estimate parameters for the large population of optically faint ($r>21 , m_{rm AB}$) gravitational-wave sources which the Vera Rubin Observatory (VRO) and LISA should identify.
The current generation of all-sky surveys is rapidly expanding our ability to study variable and transient sources. These surveys, with a variety of sensitivities, cadences, and fields of view, probe many ranges of timescale and magnitude. Data from
the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) yields an opportunity to find variables on timescales from minutes to months. In this paper, we present the codebase, ztfperiodic, and the computational metrics employed for the catalogue based on ZTFs Second Data Release. We describe the publicly available, graphical-process-unit optimized period-finding algorithms employed, and highlight the benefit of existing and future graphical-process-unit clusters. We show how generating metrics as input to catalogues of this scale is possible for future ZTF data releases. Further work will be needed for future data from the Vera C. Rubin Observatorys Legacy Survey of Space and Time.
LIGO and Virgos third observing run (O3) revealed the first neutron star-black hole (NSBH) merger candidates in gravitational waves. These events are predicted to synthesize r-process elements creating optical/near-IR kilonova (KN) emission. The join
t gravitational-wave (GW) and electromagnetic detection of an NSBH merger could be used to constrain the equation of state of dense nuclear matter, and independently measure the local expansion rate of the universe. Here, we present the optical follow-up and analysis of two of the only three high-significance NSBH merger candidates detected to date, S200105ae and S200115j, with the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF). ZTF observed $sim$,48% of S200105ae and $sim$,22% of S200115js localization probabilities, with observations sensitive to KNe brighter than $-$17.5,mag fading at 0.5,mag/day in g- and r-bands; extensive searches and systematic follow-up of candidates did not yield a viable counterpart. We present state-of-the-art KN models tailored to NSBH systems that place constraints on the ejecta properties of these NSBH mergers. We show that with depths of $rm m_{rm AB}approx 22$ mag, attainable in meter-class, wide field-of-view survey instruments, strong constraints on ejecta mass are possible, with the potential to rule out low mass ratios, high BH spins, and large neutron star radii.
