We introduce a theoretical framework which is suitable for the description of all spatial and time-multiplexed periodic single-photon sources realized or proposed thus far. Our model takes into account all possibly relevant loss mechanisms. This stat
istical analysis of the known schemes shows that multiplexing systems can be optimized in order to produce maximal single-photon probability for various sets of loss parameters by the appropriate choice of the number of multiplexed units of spatial multiplexers or multiplexed time intervals and the input mean photon pair number, and reveals the physical reasons of the existence of the optimum. We propose a novel time-multiplexed scheme to be realized in bulk optics, which, according to the present analysis, would have promising performance when experimentally realized. It could provide a single-photon probability of 85% with a choice of experimental parameters which are feasible according to the experiments known from the literature.
