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95 - Jing Shi , Marcel Ausloos , 2020
This paper investigates the heterogeneous impacts of either Global or Local Investor Sentiments on stock returns. We study 10 industry sectors through the lens of 6 (so called) emerging countries: China, Brazil, India, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey, o ver the 2000 to 2014 period. Using a panel data framework, our study sheds light on a significant effect of Local Investor Sentiments on expected returns for basic materials, consumer goods, industrial, and financial industries. Moreover, our results suggest that from Global Investor Sentiments alone, one cannot predict expected stock returns in these markets.
105 - Marcel Ausloos 2020
Many still rightly wonder whether accounting numbers affect business value. Basic questions are why? and how? I aim at promoting an objective choice on how optimizing the most suitable valuation methods under a value-based management framework throug h some performance measurement systems. First, I present a comprehensive review of valuation methods. Three valuations methods, (i) Free Cash Flow Valuation Model (FCFVM), (ii) Residual Earning Valuation Model (REVM) and (iii) Abnormal Earning Growth Model (AEGM), are presented. I point out to advantages and limitations. As applications, the proofs of the findings are illustrated on three study cases: Marks & Spencers business pattern (size and growth prospect), which had a recently advertised valuation problem, and two comparable companies, Tesco and Sainsburys, all three chosen for multiple-based valuation. For the purpose, two value drivers are chosen, EnV/EBIT (entity value/earnings before interests and taxes) and the corresponding EnV/Sales. Thus, the question whether accounting numbers through models based on mathematical economics truly affect business value has an answer: Maybe, yes.
This paper analyzes the connection between innovation activities of companies -- implemented before a financial crisis -- and their performance -- measured after such a time of crisis. Pertinent data about companies listed in the STAR Market Segment of the Italian Stock Exchange is analyzed. Innovation is measured through the level of investments in total tangible and intangible fixed assets in 2006-2007, while performance is captured through growth -- expressed by variations of sales or of total assets, -- profitability -- through ROI or ROS evolution, - and productivity -- through asset turnover or sales/employee in the period 2008-2010. The variables of interest are analyzed and compared through statistical techniques and by adopting a cluster analysis. In particular, a Voronoi tessellation is implemented in a varying centroids framework. In accord with a large part of the literature, we find that the behavior of the performance of the companies is not univocal when they innovate. The statistical outliers are the best cases in order to suggest efficient strategies. In brief, it is found that a positive rate of investments is preferable.
We study the fundamental differences that separate: Litecoin; Bitcoin Gold; Bitcoin Cash; Ethereum; and Zcash from Bitcoin, and draw analysis to how these features are appreciated by the market, to ultimately make an inference as to how future succes sful cryptocurrencies may behave. We use Google Trend data, as well as price, volume and market capitalization data sourced from coinmarketcap.com to support this analysis. We find that Litecoins shorter block times offer benefits in commerce, but drawbacks in the mining process through orphaned blocks. Zcash holds a niche use for anonymous transactions, benefitting areas of the world lacking in economic freedom. Bitcoin Cash suffers from centralization in the mining process, while the greater decentralization of Bitcoin Gold has generally left it to stagnate. Ethers greater functionality offers the greatest threat to Bitcoins dominance in the market. A coin that incorporates several of these features can be technically better than Bitcoin, but the first-to-marketadvantage of Bitcoin should keep its dominant position in the market.
After the 2007/2008 financial crisis, the UK government decided that a change in regulation was required to amend the poor control of financial markets. The Financial Services Act 2012 was developed as a result in order to give more control and autho rity to the regulators of financial markets. Thus, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) succeeded the Financial Services Authority (FSA). An area requiring an improvement in regulation was insider trading. Our study examines the effectiveness of the FCA in its duty of regulating insider trading through utilising the event study methodology to assess abnormal returns in the run-up to the first announcement of mergers. Samples of abnormal returns are examined on periods, under regulation either by the FSA or by the FCA. Practically, stock price data on the London Stock Exchange from 2008-2012 and 2015-2019 is investigated. The results from this study determine that abnormal returns are reduced after the implementation of the Financial Services Act 2012; prices are also found to be noisier in the period before the 2012 Act. Insignificant abnormal returns are found in the run-up to the first announcement of mergers in the 2015-2019 period. This concludes that the FCA is efficient in regulating insider trading.
60 - Marcel Ausloos 2020
A spectacular order-order-like transition is presented in the distribution of hagiotoponyms in France. Data analysis and displays distinguish male and female cases. The respective hapax values point to a very large variety of saints with a specific d evotion. The most popular ones are St. Martin and the apostles. The less popular ones are not so well known. These features are explained in terms of herding in agent behaviors: people have either preferred popular saints with supposedly good links to God, whence a herding behavior, or (non-herding) agents have preferred to name their local human settlement through a reference to some holy person(s) with more local specificities -- yet with moral or religious leadership, and conjectured to have good contact with God, whence at least locally defined as a saint.
The objective of this study is to examine empirically the impact of good corporate governance on financial performance of United Kingdom non-financial listed firms. Agency theory and stewardship theory serve as the bases of a conceptual model. Five c orporate governance mechanisms are examined on two financial performance indicators, return on assets (ROA) and Tobins Q, employing cross-sectional regression methodology. The conclusion drawn from empirical test so performed on 252 firms listed on London Stock Exchange for the year 2014 indicates a positive or a negative relationship, but also sometimes no effect, of corporate governance mechanisms impact on financial performance. The implications are discussed. Thereby, so distinguishing effects due to causes, we present a proof that, when the right corporate governance mechanisms are chosen, the finances of a firm can be improved. The results of this research should have some implication on academia and policy makers thoughts.
114 - Marcel Ausloos 2019
This note examines financial distributions to competing teams at the end of the most famous multiple stage professional (male) bicyclist race, TOUR DE FRANCE. A rank-size law (RSL) is calculated for the team financial gains. The RSL is found to be hy perbolic with a surprisingly simple decay exponent (about equal to -1). Yet, the financial gain distributions unexpectedly do not obey Pareto principle of factor sparsity. Next, several (8) inequality indices are considered : the Entropy, the Hirschman-Herfindahl, Theil, Pietra-Hoover, Gini, Rosenbluth indices, the Coefficient of Variation and the Concentration Index are calculated for outlining diversity measures. The connection between such indices and their concentration aspects meanings are presented as support of the RSL findings. The results emphasize that the sum of skills and team strategies are effectively contributing to the financial gains distributions. From theoretical and practical points of view, the findings suggest that one should investigate other long multiple stage races and rewarding rules. Indeed, money prize rules coupling to stage difficulty might influence and maybe enhance (or deteriorate) purely sportive aspects in group competitions. Due to the delay in the peer review process, the 2019 results can be examined. They are discussed in an Appendix; the value of the exponent (-1.2) is pointed out to mainly originating from the so called king effect; the tail of the RSL rather looks like an exponential.
This dataset contains the annual aggregated income taxes of all the Italian municipalities over the years 2007-2011. Data are clustered over the Italian regions and provinces. The source of the data is the Italian Ministry of Economics and Finance. T he administrative variations in Italy over the quinquennium have been taken into account. Data are useful to understand the economic structure of Italy at the microscopic level of municipalities. They can serve also for making comparisons between economical aspects and other features of the Italian cities.
One successful model of interacting biological systems is the Boolean network. The dynamics of a Boolean network, controlled with Boolean functions, is usually considered to be a Markovian (memory-less) process. However, both self organizing features of biological phenomena and their intelligent nature should raise some doubt about ignoring the history of their time evolution. Here, we extend the Boolean network Markovian approach: we involve the effect of memory on the dynamics. This can be explored by modifying Boolean functions into non-Markovian functions, for example, by investigating the usual non-Markovian threshold function, - one of the most applied Boolean functions. By applying the non-Markovian threshold function on the dynamical process of a cell cycle network, we discover a power law memory with a more robust dynamics than the Markovian dynamics.
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