Large deviation principles for cumulative processes and applications

The aim of this paper is to prove a Large Deviation Principle (LDP) for cumulative processes also known as coumpound renewal processes. These processes cumulate independent random variables occuring in time interval given by a renewal process. Our result extends the one obtained in Lefevere et al. (2011) in the sense that we impose no specific dependency between the cumulated random variables and the renewal process. The proof is inspired from Lefevere et al. (2011) but deals with additional difficulties due to the general framework that is considered here. In the companion paper Cattiaux-Costa-Colombani (2021) we apply this principle to Hawkes processes with inhibition. Under some assumptions Hawkes processes are indeed cumulative processes, but they do not enter the framework of Lefevere et al. (2011).

Limit theorems for Hawkes processes including inhibition

In this paper we consider some non linear Hawkes processes with signed reproduction function (or memory kernel) thus exhibiting both self-excitation and inhibition. We provide a Law of Large Numbers, a Central Limit Theorem and large deviation results, as time growths to infinity. The proofs lie on a renewal structure for these processes introduced in Costa et al. (2020) which leads to a comparison with cumulative processes. Explicit computations are made on some examples. Similar results have been obtained in the literature for self-exciting Hawkes processes only.

Non asymptotic controls on a recursive superquantile approximation

In this work, we study a new recursive stochastic algorithm for the joint estimation of quantile and superquantile of an unknown distribution. The novelty of this algorithm is to use the Cesaro averaging of the quantile estimation inside the recursive approximation of the superquantile. We provide some sharp non-asymptotic bounds on the quadratic risk of the superquantile estimator for different step size sequences. We also prove new non-asymptotic $L^p$-controls on the Robbins Monro algorithm for quantile estimation and its averaged version. Finally, we derive a central limit theorem of our joint procedure using the diffusion approximation point of view hidden behind our stochastic algorithm.

Stochastic approximation algorithms for superquantiles estimation

This paper is devoted to two different two-time-scale stochastic approximation algorithms for superquantile estimation. We shall investigate the asymptotic behavior of a Robbins-Monro estimator and its convexified version. Our main contribution is to establish the almost sure convergence, the quadratic strong law and the law of iterated logarithm for our estimates via a martingale approach. A joint asymptotic normality is also provided. Our theoretical analysis is illustrated by numerical experiments on real datasets.

Survival criterion for a population subject to selection and mutations ; Application to temporally piecewise constant environments

We study a parabolic Lotka-Volterra type equation that describes the evolution of a population structured by a phenotypic trait, under the effects of mutations and competition for resources modelled by a nonlocal feedback. The limit of small mutations is characterized by a Hamilton-Jacobi equation with constraint that describes the concentration of the population on some traits. This result was already established in Barles-Perthame 2008, Barles-Mirrahimi-Perthame 2009, Lorz-Mirrahimi-Perthame 2011 in a time-homogenous environment, when the asymptotic persistence of the population was ensured by assumptions on either the growth rate or the initial data. Here, we relax these assumptions to extend the study to situations where the population may go extinct at the limit. For that purpose, we provide conditions on the initial data for the asymptotic fate of the population. Finally, we show how this study for a time-homogenous environment allows to consider temporally piecewise constant environments.

Renewal in Hawkes processes with self-excitation and inhibition

This paper investigates Hawkes processes on the positive real line exhibiting both self-excitation and inhibition. Each point of this point process impacts its future intensity by the addition of a signed reproduction function. The case of a nonnegative reproduction function corresponds to self-excitation, and has been widely investigated in the literature. In particular, there exists a cluster representation of the Hawkes process which allows to apply results known for Galton-Watson trees. In the present paper, we establish limit theorems for Hawkes process with signed reproduction functions by using renewal techniques. We notably prove exponential concentration inequalities, and thus extend results of Reynaud-Bouret and Roy (2007) which were proved for nonnegative reproduction functions using this cluster representation which is no longer valid in our case. An important step for this is to establish the existence of exponential moments for renewal times of M/G/infinity queues that appear naturally in our problem. These results have their own interest, independently of the original problem for the Hawkes processes.

Cytometry inference through adaptive atomic deconvolution

In this paper we consider a statistical estimation problem known as atomic deconvolution. Introduced in reliability, this model has a direct application when considering biological data produced by flow cytometers. In these experiments, biologists measure the fluorescence emission of treated cells and compare them with their natural emission to study the presence of specific molecules on the cells surface. They observe a signal which is composed of a noise (the natural fluorescence) plus some additional signal related to the quantity of molecule present on the surface if any. From a statistical point of view, we aim at inferring the percentage of cells expressing the selected molecule and the probability distribution function associated with its fluorescence emission. We propose here an adap-tive estimation procedure based on a previous deconvolution procedure introduced by [vEGS08, GvES11]. For both estimating the mixing parameter and the mixing density automatically, we use the Lepskii method based on the optimal choice of a bandwidth using a bias-variance decomposition. We then derive some concentration inequalities for our estimators and obtain the convergence rates, that are shown to be minimax optimal (up to some log terms) in Sobolev classes. Finally, we apply our algorithm on simulated and real biological data.