We make a frequentist analysis of the parameter space of the NUHM2, in which the soft supersymmetry (SUSY)-breaking contributions to the masses of the two Higgs multiplets, $m^2_{H_{u,d}}$, vary independently from the universal soft SUSY-breaking con
tributions $m^2_0$ to the masses of squarks and sleptons. Our analysis uses the MultiNest sampling algorithm with over $4 times 10^8$ points to sample the NUHM2 parameter space. It includes the ATLAS and CMS Higgs mass measurements as well as their searches for supersymmetric jets + MET signals using the full LHC Run~1 data, the measurements of $B_s to mu^+ mu^-$ by LHCb and CMS together with other B-physics observables, electroweak precision observables and the XENON100 and LUX searches for spin-independent dark matter scattering. We find that the preferred regions of the NUHM2 parameter space have negative SUSY-breaking scalar masses squared for squarks and sleptons, $m_0^2 < 0$, as well as $m^2_{H_u} < m^2_{H_d} < 0$. The tension present in the CMSSM and NUHM1 between the supersymmetric interpretation of $g_mu - 2$ and the absence to date of SUSY at the LHC is not significantly alleviated in the NUHM2. We find that the minimum $chi^2 = 32.5$ with 21 degrees of freedom (dof) in the NUHM2, to be compared with $chi^2/{rm dof} = 35.0/23$ in the CMSSM, and $chi^2/{rm dof} = 32.7/22$ in the NUHM1. We find that the one-dimensional likelihood functions for sparticle masses and other observables are similar to those found previously in the CMSSM and NUHM1.
We make a frequentist analysis of the parameter space of the CMSSM and NUHM1, using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with 95 (221) million points to sample the CMSSM (NUHM1) parameter spaces. Our analysis includes the ATLAS search for supersymmetric
jets + MET signals using ~ 5/fb of LHC data at 7 TeV, which we apply using PYTHIA and a Delphes implementation that we validate in the relevant parameter regions of the CMSSM and NUHM1. Our analysis also includes the constraint imposed by searches for B_s to mu+mu- by LHCb, CMS, ATLAS and CDF, and the limit on spin-independent dark matter scattering from 225 live days of XENON100 data. We assume M_h ~ 125 GeV, and use a full set of electroweak precision and other flavour-physics observables, as well as the cold dark matter density constraint. The ATLAS 5/fb constraint has relatively limited effects on the 68 and 95% CL regions in the (m_0, m_1/2) planes of the CMSSM and NUHM1. The new B_s to mu+mu- constraint has greater impacts on these CL regions, and also impacts significantly the 68 and 95% CL regions in the (M_A, tan beta) planes of both models, reducing the best-fit values of tan beta. The recent XENON100 data eliminate the focus-point region in the CMSSM and affect the 68 and 95% CL regions in the NUHM1. In combination, these new constraints reduce the best-fit values of m_0, m_1/2 in the CMSSM, and increase the global chi^2 from 31.0 to 32.8, reducing the p-value from 12% to 8.5%. In the case of the NUHM1, they have little effect on the best-fit values of m_0, m_1/2, but increase the global chi^2 from 28.9 to 31.3, thereby reducing the p-value from 15% to 9.1%.
