Within the next few years, Advanced LIGO and Virgo should detect gravitational waves from binary neutron star and neutron star-black hole mergers. These sources are also predicted to power a broad array of electromagnetic transients. Because the elec
tromagnetic signatures can be faint and fade rapidly, observing them hinges on rapidly inferring the sky location from the gravitational-wave observations. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for gravitational-wave parameter estimation can take hours or more. We introduce BAYESTAR, a rapid, Bayesian, non-Markov chain Monte Carlo sky localization algorithm that takes just seconds to produce probability sky maps that are comparable in accuracy to the full analysis. Prompt localizations from BAYESTAR will make it possible to search electromagnetic counterparts of compact binary mergers.
We anticipate the first direct detections of gravitational waves (GWs) with Advanced LIGO and Virgo later this decade. Though this groundbreaking technical achievement will be its own reward, a still greater prize could be observations of compact bin
ary mergers in both gravitational and electromagnetic channels simultaneously. During Advanced LIGO and Virgos first two years of operation, 2015 through 2016, we expect the global GW detector array to improve in sensitivity and livetime and expand from two to three detectors. We model the detection rate and the sky localization accuracy for binary neutron star (BNS) mergers across this transition. We have analyzed a large, astrophysically motivated source population using real-time detection and sky localization codes and higher-latency parameter estimation codes that have been expressly built for operation in the Advanced LIGO/Virgo era. We show that for most BNS events the rapid sky localization, available about a minute after a detection, is as accurate as the full parameter estimation. We demonstrate that Advanced Virgo will play an important role in sky localization, even though it is anticipated to come online with only one-third as much sensitivity as the Advanced LIGO detectors. We find that the median 90% confidence region shrinks from ~500 square degrees in 2015 to ~200 square degrees in 2016. A few distinct scenarios for the first LIGO/Virgo detections emerge from our simulations.
Several mechanisms exist for generating a stochastic background of gravitational waves in the period following inflation. These mechanisms are generally classical in nature, with the gravitational waves being produced from inhomogeneities in the fiel
ds that populate the early universe and not quantum fluctuations. The resulting stochastic background could be accessible to next generation gravitational wave detectors. We develop a framework for computing such a background analytically and computationally. As an application of our framework, we consider the stochastic background of gravitational waves generated in a simple model of preheating.
