Level and length of cyclic solar activity during the Maunder minimum as deduced from the active day statistics

The Maunder minimum (MM) of greatly reduced solar activity took place in 1645-1715, but the exact level of sunspot activity is uncertain as based, to a large extent, on historical generic statements of the absence of spots on the Sun. Here we aim, using a conservative approach, to assess the level and length of solar cycle during the Maunder minimum, on the basis of direct historical records by astronomers of that time. A database of the active and inactive days (days with and without recorded sunspots on the solar disc respectively) is constructed for three models of different levels of conservatism (loose ML, optimum MO and strict MS models) regarding generic no-spot records. We have used the active day fraction to estimate the group sunspot number during the MM. A clear cyclic variability is found throughout the MM with peaks at around 1655--1657, 1675, 1684 and 1705, and possibly 1666, with the active day fraction not exceeding 0.2, 0.3 or 0.4 during the core MM, for the three models. Estimated sunspot numbers are found very low in accordance with a grand minimum of solar activity. We have found, for the core MM (1650-1700), that: (1) A large fraction of no-spot records, corresponding to the solar meridian observations, may be unreliable in the conventional database. (2) The active day fraction remained low (below 0.3-0.4) throughout the MM, indicating the low level of sunspot activity. (3) The solar cycle appears clearly during the core MM. (4) The length of the solar cycle during the core MM appears $9pm 1$ years, but there is an uncertainty in that. (5) The magnitude of the sunspot cycle during MM is assessed to be below 5-10 in sunspot numbers; A hypothesis of the high solar cycles during the MM is not confirmed.

Evidence for distinct modes of solar activity

Aims. The Sun shows strong variability in its magnetic activity, from Grand minima to Grand maxima, but the nature of the variability is not fully understood, mostly because of the insufficient length of the directly observed solar activity records and of uncertainties related to long-term reconstructions. Here we present a new adjustment-free reconstruction of solar activity over three millennia and study its different modes. Methods. We present a new adjustment-free, physical reconstruction of solar activity over the past three millennia, using the latest verified carbon cycle, 14C production, and archeomagnetic field models. This great improvement allowed us to study different modes of solar activity at an unprecedented level of details. Results. The distribution of solar activity is clearly bi-modal, implying the existence of distinct modes of activity. The main regular activity mode corresponds to moderate activity that varies in a relatively narrow band between sunspot numbers about 20 and 67. The existence of a separate Grand minimum mode with reduced solar activity, which cannot be explained by random fluctuations of the regular mode, is confirmed at a high confidence level. The possible existence of a separate Grand maximum mode is also suggested, but the statistics is too low to reach a confident conclusion. Conclusions. The Sun is shown to operate in distinct modes - a main general mode, a Grand minimum mode corresponding to an inactive Sun, and a possible Grand maximum mode corresponding to an unusually active Sun. These results provide important constraints for both dynamo models of Sun-like stars and investigations of possible solar influence on Earths climate.

Inconsistency of the Wolf sunspot number series around 1848

Aims. Sunspot number is a benchmark series in many studies, but may still contain inhomogeneities and inconsistencies. In particular, an essential discrepancy exists between the two main sunspot number series, Wolf (WSN) and group (GSN) sunspot numbers, before 1848. The source of this discrepancy has so far remained unresolved. However, the recently digitized series of solar observations in 1825-1867 by Samuel Heinrich Schwabe, who was the primary observer of the WSN before 1848, makes such an assessment possible. Methods. We construct sunspot series, similar to WSN and GSN, but using only Schwabes data. These series, called WSN-S and GSN-S, respectively, were compared with the original WSN and GSN series for the period 1835-1867 to look for possible inhomogeneities. Results. We show that: (1) The GSN series is homogeneous and consistent with the Schwabe data throughout the entire studied period; (2) The WSN series decreases by roughly ~20% around 1848 caused by the change of the primary observer from Schwabe to Wolf and an inappropriate individual correction factor used for Schwabe in the WSN; (3) This implies a major inhomogeneity in the WSN, which needs to be corrected by reducing its values by 20% before 1848; (4) The corrected WSN series is in good agreement with the GSN series. This study supports the earlier conclusions that the GSN series is more consistent and homogeneous in the earlier part than the WSN series.

The AD775 cosmic event revisited: the Sun is to blame

Miyake et al. (henceforth M12) recently reported, based on 14C data, an extreme cosmic event ca. AD775. Using a simple model, M12 claimed that the event was too strong to be caused by a solar flare within the standard theory. This implied a new paradigm of either an impossibly strong solar flare or a very strong cosmic ray event of unknown origin occurred ca. AD775. We show that the strength of the event was significantly overestimated by M12. Several subsequent works have attempted to find a possible exotic source for such an event, but they are all based on incorrect estimates by M12. We revisit this event with analysis of new datasets and consistent theoretical modelling. We verified the experimental result for the AD775 event using independent datasets including 10Be series and newly measured 14C annual data. We surveyed available historical chronicles for astronomical observations for the AD770s to identify potential sightings of aurorae or supernovae. We interpreted the 14C measurements using an appropriate carbon cycle model. We show that: (1) The reality of the AD775 event is confirmed by new measurements of 14C; (2) by using an inappropriate carbon cycle model, M12 strongly overestimated the events strength; (3) The revised magnitude of the event is consistent with different independent datasets (14C, 10Be, 36Cl) and can be associated with a strong, but not inexplicably strong, SEP event (or a sequence of events), and provides the first evidence for an event of this magnitude (the fluence >30 MeV was about 4.5*10^{10} /cm2) in multiple datasets; (4) This is in agreement with increased auroral activity identified in historical chronicles. This point to the likely solar origin of the event, which is the greatest solar event on a multi-millennial time scale, placing a strong observational constraint on the theory of explosive energy releases on the Sun and cool stars.