Low-frequency type II radio detections and coronagraph data to describe and forecast the propagation of 71 CMEs/shocks

The vulnerability of technology on which present society relies demands that a solar event, its time of arrival at Earth, and its degree of geoeffectiveness be promptly forecasted. Motivated by improving predictions of arrival times at Earth of shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), we have analyzed 71 Earth-directed events in different stages of their propagation. The study is primarily based on approximated locations of interplanetary (IP) shocks derived from type II radio emissions detected by the Wind/WAVES experiment during 1997-2007. Distance-time diagrams resulting from the combination of white-light corona, IP type II radio, and in situ data lead to the formulation of descriptive profiles of each CMEs journey toward Earth. Furthermore, two different methods to track and predict the location of CME-driven IP shocks are presented. The linear method, solely based on Wind/WAVES data, arises after key modifications to a pre-existing technique that linearly projects the drifting low-frequency type II emissions to 1 AU. This upgraded method improves forecasts of shock arrival time by almost 50%. The second predictive method is proposed on the basis of information derived from the descriptive profiles, and relies on a single CME height-time point and on low-frequency type II radio emissions to obtain an approximate value of the shock arrival time at Earth. In addition, we discuss results on CME-radio emission associations, characteristics of IP propagation, and the relative success of the forecasting methods.

Coronal mass ejections from the same active region cluster: Two different perspectives

The cluster formed by active regions (ARs) NOAA 11121 and 11123, approximately located on the solar central meridian on 11 November 2010, is of great scientific interest. This complex was the site of violent flux emergence and the source of a series of Earth-directed events on the same day. The onset of the events was nearly simultaneously observed by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) telescope aboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and the Extreme-Ultraviolet Imagers (EUVI) on the Sun-Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation (SECCHI) suite of telescopes onboard the Solar-Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) twin spacecraft. The progression of these events in the low corona was tracked by the Large Angle Spectroscopic Coronagraphs (LASCO) onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and the SECCHI/COR coronagraphs on STEREO. SDO and SOHO imagers provided data from the Earths perspective, whilst the STEREO twin instruments procured images from the orthogonal directions. This spatial configuration of spacecraft allowed optimum simultaneous observations of the AR cluster and the coronal mass ejections that originated in it. Quadrature coronal observations provided by STEREO revealed a notably large amount of ejective events compared to those detected from Earths perspective. Furthermore, joint observations by SDO/AIA and STEREO/SECCHI EUVI of the source region indicate that all events classified by GOES as X-ray flares had an ejective coronal counterpart in quadrature observations. These results have direct impact on current space weather forecasting because of the probable missing alarms when there is a lack of solar observations in a view direction perpendicular to the Sun-Earth line.