The generalized fractional Brownian motion is a Gaussian self-similar process whose increments are not necessarily stationary. It appears in applications as the scaling limit of a shot noise process with a power law shape function and non-stationary
noises with a power-law variance function. In this paper we study sample path properties of the generalized fractional Brownian motion, including Holder continuity, path differentiability/non-differentiability, and functional and local Law of the Iterated Logarithms.
We introduce a system-wide safety staffing (SWSS) parameter for multiclass multi-pool networks of any tree topology, Markovian or non-Markovian, in the Halfin-Whitt regime. This parameter can be regarded as the optimal reallocation of the capacity fl
uctuations (positive or negative) of order $sqrt{n}$ when each server pool employs a square-root staffing rule. We provide an explicit form of the SWSS as a function of the system parameters, which is derived using a graph theoretic approach based on Gaussian elimination. For Markovian networks, we give an equivalent characterization of the SWSS parameter via the drift parameters of the limiting diffusion. We show that if the SWSS parameter is negative, the limiting diffusion and the diffusion-scaled queueing processes are transient under any Markov control, and cannot have a stationary distribution when this parameter is zero. If it is positive, we show that the diffusion-scaled queueing processes are uniformly stabilizable, that is, there exists a scheduling policy under which the stationary distributions of the controlled processes are tight over the size of the network. In addition, there exists a control under which the limiting controlled diffusion is exponentially ergodic. Thus we have identified a necessary and sufficient condition for the uniform stabilizability of such networks in the Halfin-Whitt regime. We use a constant control resulting from the leaf elimination algorithm to stabilize the limiting controlled diffusion, while a family of Markov scheduling policies which are easy to compute are used to stabilize the diffusion-scaled processes. Finally, we show that under these controls the processes are exponentially ergodic and the stationary distributions have exponential tails.
We introduce an epidemic model with varying infectivity and general exposed and infectious periods, where the infectivity of each individual is a random function of the elapsed time since infection, those function being i.i.d. for the various individ
uals in the population. This approach models infection-age dependent infectivity, and extends the classical SIR and SEIR models. We focus on the infectivity process (total force of infection at each time), and prove a functional law of large number (FLLN). In the deterministic limit of this LLN, the infectivity process and the susceptible process are determined by a two-dimensional deterministic integral equation. From its solutions, we then derive the exposed, infectious and recovered processes, again using integral equations. For the early phase, we study the stochastic model directly by using an approximate (non--Markovian) branching process, and show that the epidemic grows at an exponential rate on the event of non-extinction, which matches the rate of growth derived from the deterministic linearized equations. We also use these equations to derive the basic reproduction number $R_0$ during the early stage of an epidemic, in terms of the average individual infectivity function and the exponential rate of growth of the epidemic.
We study non-Markovian stochastic epidemic models (SIS, SIR, SIRS, and SEIR), in which the infectious (and latent/exposing, immune) periods have a general distribution. We provide a representation of the evolution dynamics using the time epochs of in
fection (and latency/exposure, immunity). Taking the limit as the size of the population tends to infinity, we prove both a functional law of large number (FLLN) and a functional central limit theorem (FCLT) for the processes of interest in these models. In the FLLN, the limits are a unique solution to a system of deterministic Volterra integral equations, while in the FCLT, the limit processes are multidimensional Gaussian solutions of linear Volterra stochastic integral equations. In the proof of the FCLT, we provide an important Poisson random measures representation of the diffusion-scaled processes converging to Gaussian components driving the limit process.
A Markovian single-server queue is studied in an interactive random environment. The arrival and service rates of the queue depend on the environment, while the transition dynamics of the random environment depends on the queue length. We consider in
detail two types of Markov random environments: a pure jump process and a reflected jump-diffusion. In both cases, the joint dynamics is constructed so that the stationary distribution can be explicitly found in a simple form (weighted geometric). We also derive an explicit estimate for exponential rate of convergence to the stationary distribution via coupling.
