This paper presents a novel spatio-temporal LSTM (SPATIAL) architecture for time series forecasting applied to environmental datasets. The framework was evaluated across multiple sensors and for three different oceanic variables: current speed, tempe
rature, and dissolved oxygen. Network implementation proceeded in two directions that are nominally separated but connected as part of a natural environmental system -- across the spatial (between individual sensors) and temporal components of the sensor data. Data from four sensors sampling current speed, and eight measuring both temperature and dissolved oxygen evaluated the framework. Results were compared against RF and XGB baseline models that learned on the temporal signal of each sensor independently by extracting the date-time features together with the past history of data using sliding window matrix. Results demonstrated ability to accurately replicate complex signals and provide comparable performance to state-of-the-art benchmarks. Notably, the novel framework provided a simpler pre-processing and training pipeline that handles missing values via a simple masking layer. Enabling learning across the spatial and temporal directions, this paper addresses two fundamental challenges of ML applications to environmental science: 1) data sparsity and the challenges and costs of collecting measurements of environmental conditions such as ocean dynamics, and 2) environmental datasets are inherently connected in the spatial and temporal directions while classical ML approaches only consider one of these directions. Furthermore, sharing of parameters across all input steps makes SPATIAL a fast, scalable, and easily-parameterized forecasting framework.
In situ and remotely sensed observations have potential to facilitate data-driven predictive models for oceanography. A suite of machine learning models, including regression, decision tree and deep learning approaches were developed to estimate sea
surface temperatures (SST). Training data consisted of satellite-derived SST and atmospheric data from The Weather Company. Models were evaluated in terms of accuracy and computational complexity. Predictive skill were assessed against observations and a state-of-the-art, physics-based model from the European Centre for Medium Weather Forecasting. Results demonstrated that by combining automated feature engineering with machine-learning approaches, accuracy comparable to existing state-of-the-art can be achieved. Models captured seasonal patterns in the data and qualitatively reproduce short-term variations driven by atmospheric forcing. Further, it demonstrated that machine-learning-based approaches can be used as transportable prediction tools for ocean variables -- the data-driven nature of the approach naturally integrates with automatic deployment frameworks, where model deployments are guided by data rather than user-parametrisation and expertise. The low computational cost of inference makes the approach particularly attractive for edge-based computing where predictive models could be deployed on low-power devices in the marine environment.
This study investigated an approach to improve the accuracy of computationally lightweight surrogate models by updating forecasts based on historical accuracy relative to sparse observation data. Using a lightweight, ocean-wave forecasting model, we
created a large number of model ensembles, with perturbed inputs, for a two-year study period. Forecasts were aggregated using a machine-learning algorithm that combined forecasts from multiple, independent models into a single best-estimate prediction of the true state. The framework was applied to a case-study site in Monterey Bay, California. A~learning-aggregation technique used historical observations and model forecasts to calculate a weight for each ensemble member. Weighted ensemble predictions were compared to measured wave conditions to evaluate performance against present state-of-the-art. Finally, we discussed how this framework, which integrates ensemble aggregations and surrogate models, can be used to improve forecasting systems and further enable scientific process studies.
This paper presents a new iterative state estimation algorithm for advection dominated flows with non-Gaussian uncertainty description of $L^infty$-type: uncertain initial condition and model error are assumed to be pointvise bounded in space and tim
e, and the observation noise has uncertain but bounded second moments. The algorithm approximates this $L^infty$-type bounding set by a union of possibly overlapping ellipsoids, which are localized (in space) on a number of sub-domains. On each sub-domain the state of the original system is estimated by the standard $L^2$-type filter (e.g. Kalman/minimax filter) which uses Gaussian/ellipsoidal uncertainty description and observations (if any) which correspond to this sub-domain. The resulting local state estimates are stitched together by the iterative d-ADN Schwartz method to reconstruct the state of the original system. The efficacy of the proposed method is demonstrated with a set of numerical examples.
A~machine learning framework is developed to estimate ocean-wave conditions. By supervised training of machine learning models on many thousands of iterations of a physics-based wave model, accurate representations of significant wave heights and per
iod can be used to predict ocean conditions. A model of Monterey Bay was used as the example test site; it was forced by measured wave conditions, ocean-current nowcasts, and reported winds. These input data along with model outputs of spatially variable wave heights and characteristic period were aggregated into supervised learning training and test data sets, which were supplied to machine learning models. These machine learning models replicated wave heights with a root-mean-squared error of 9cm and correctly identify over 90% of the characteristic periods for the test-data sets. Impressively, transforming model inputs to outputs through matrix operations requires only a fraction (<1/1,000) of the computation time compared to forecasting with the physics-based model.
