We describe a method that infers whether statistical dependences between two observed variables X and Y are due to a direct causal link or only due to a connecting causal path that contains an unobserved variable of low complexity, e.g., a binary var
iable. This problem is motivated by statistical genetics. Given a genetic marker that is correlated with a phenotype of interest, we want to detect whether this marker is causal or it only correlates with a causal one. Our method is based on the analysis of the location of the conditional distributions P(Y|x) in the simplex of all distributions of Y. We report encouraging results on semi-empirical data.
