It is possible that ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) are generated by active galactic nuclei (AGNs), but there is currently no conclusive evidence for this hypothesis. Several reports of correlations between the arrival directions of UHECRs and
the positions of nearby AGNs have been made, the strongest detection coming from a sample of 27 UHECRs detected by the Pierre Auger Observatory (PAO). However, the PAO results were based on a statistical methodology that not only ignored some relevant information (most obviously the UHECR arrival energies but also some of the information in the arrival directions) but also involved some problematic fine-tuning of the correlation parameters. Here we present a fully Bayesian analysis of the PAO data (collected before 2007 September), which makes use of more of the available information, and find that a fraction F_AGN = 0.15^(+0.10)_(-0.07) of the UHECRs originate from known AGNs in the Veron-Cetty & Veron (VCV) catalogue. The hypothesis that all the UHECRs come from VCV AGNs is ruled out, although there remains a small possibility that the PAO-AGN correlation is coincidental (F_AGN = 0.15 is 200 times as probable as F_AGN = 0.00).
abridged] A method to rapidly estimate the Fourier power spectrum of a point distribution is presented. This method relies on a Taylor expansion of the trigonometric functions. It yields the Fourier modes from a number of FFTs, which is controlled by
the order N of the expansion and by the dimension D of the system. In three dimensions, for the practical value N=3, the number of FFTs required is 20. We apply the method to the measurement of the power spectrum of a periodic point distribution that is a local Poisson realization of an underlying stationary field. We derive explicit analytic expression for the spectrum, which allows us to quantify--and correct for--the biases induced by discreteness and by the truncation of the Taylor expansion, and to bound the unknown effects of aliasing of the power spectrum. We show that these aliasing effects decrease rapidly with the order N. The only remaining significant source of errors is reduced to the unavoidable cosmic/sample variance due to the finite size of the sample. The analytical calculations are successfully checked against a cosmological N-body experiment. We also consider the initial conditions of this simulation, which correspond to a perturbed grid. This allows us to test a case where the local Poisson assumption is incorrect. Even in that extreme situation, the third-order Fourier-Taylor estimator behaves well. We also show how to reach arbitrarily large dynamic range in Fourier space (i.e., high wavenumber), while keeping statistical errors in control, by appropriately folding the particle distribution.
