Real-time solar wind prediction based on SDO/AIA coronal hole data

We present an empirical model based on the visible area covered by coronal holes close to the central meridian in order to predict the solar wind speed at 1 AU with a lead time up to four days in advance with a 1hr time resolution. Linear prediction functions are used to relate coronal hole areas to solar wind speed. The function parameters are automatically adapted by using the information from the previous 3 Carrington Rotations. Thus the algorithm automatically reacts on the changes of the solar wind speed during different phases of the solar cycle. The adaptive algorithm has been applied to and tested on SDO/AIA-193A observations and ACE measurements during the years 2011-2013, covering 41 Carrington Rotations. The solar wind speed arrival time is delayed and needs on average 4.02 +/- 0.5 days to reach Earth. The algorithm produces good predictions for the 156 solar wind high speed streams peak amplitudes with correlation coefficients of cc~0.60. For 80% of the peaks, the predicted arrival matches within a time window of 0.5 days of the ACE in situ measurements. The same algorithm, using linear predictions, was also applied to predict the magnetic field strength from coronal hole areas but did not give reliable predictions (cc~0.2).

CME acceleration and non-thermal flare characteristics

We investigate the relationship between the main acceleration phase of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and the particle acceleration in the associated flares as evidenced in RHESSI non-thermal X-rays for a set of 37 impulsive flare-CME events. CME peak velocity and peak acceleration yield distinct correlations with various parameters characterizing the flare-accelerated electron spectra. The highest correlation coefficient is obtained for the relation of the CME peak velocity and the total energy in accelerated electrons (c = 0.85), supporting the idea that the acceleration of the CME and the particle acceleration in the associated flare draw their energy from a common source, probably magnetic reconnection in the current sheet behind the erupting structure. In general, the CME peak velocity shows somewhat higher correlations with the non-thermal flare parameters than the CME peak acceleration, except for the spectral index of the accelerated electron spectrum which yields a higher correlation with the CME peak acceleration (c = -0.6), indicating that the hardness of the flare-accelerated electron spectrum is tightly coupled to the impulsive acceleration process of the rising CME structure. We also obtained high correlations between the CME initiation height $h_0$ and the non-thermal flare parameters, with the highest correlation of $h_0$ to the spectral index of flare-accelerated electrons (c = 0.8). This means that CMEs erupting at low coronal heights, i.e. in regions of stronger magnetic fields, are accompanied with flares which are more efficient to accelerate electrons to high energies. In the majority of events (80%), the non-thermal flare emission starts after the CME acceleration (6 min), giving a current sheet length at the onset of magnetic reconnection of 21 pm 7 Mm. The flare HXR peaks are well synchronized with the peak of the CME acceleration profile.

Multiwavelength imaging and spectroscopy of chromospheric evaporation in an M-class solar flare

We study spectroscopic observations of chromospheric evaporation mass flows in comparison to the energy input by electron beams derived from hard X-ray data for the white-light M2.5 flare of 2006 July 6. The event was captured in high cadence spectroscopic observing mode by SOHO/CDS combined with high-cadence imaging at various wavelengths in the visible, EUV and X-ray domain during the joint observing campaign JOP171. During the flare peak, we observe downflows in the He,{sc i} and O,{sc v} lines formed in the chromosphere and transition region, respectively, and simultaneous upflows in the hot coronal Si~{sc xii} line. The energy deposition rate by electron beams derived from RHESSI hard X-ray observations is suggestive of explosive chromospheric evaporation, consistent with the observed plasma motions. However, for a later distinct X-ray burst, where the site of the strongest energy deposition is exactly located on the CDS slit, the situation is intriguing. The O,{sc v} transition region line spectra show the evolution of double components, indicative of the superposition of a stationary plasma volume and upflowing plasma elements with high velocities (up to 280~km~s$^{-1}$) in single CDS pixels on the flare ribbon. However, the energy input by electrons during this period is too small to drive explosive chromospheric evaporation. These unexpected findings indicate that the flaring transition region is much more dynamic, complex, and fine-structured than is captured in single-loop hydrodynamic simulations.

First observations of a dome-shaped large-scale coronal EUV wave

We present first observations of a dome-shaped large-scale EUV coronal wave, recorded by the EUVI instrument onboard STEREO-B on January 17, 2010. The main arguments that the observed structure is the wave dome (and not the CME) are: a) the spherical form and sharpness of the domes outer edge and the erupting CME loops observed inside the dome; b) the low-coronal wave signatures above the limb perfectly connecting to the on-disk signatures of the wave; c) the lateral extent of the expanding dome which is much larger than that of the coronal dimming; d) the associated high-frequency type II burst indicating shock formation low in the corona. The velocity of the upward expansion of the wave dome ($v sim 650$ km s$^{-1}$) is larger than that of the lateral expansion of the wave ($v sim 280$ km s$^{-1}$), indicating that the upward dome expansion is driven all the time, and thus depends on the CME speed, whereas in the lateral direction it is freely propagating after the CME lateral expansion stops. We also examine the evolution of the perturbation characteristics: First the perturbation profile steepens and the amplitude increases. Thereafter, the amplitude decreases with r$^{-2.5 pm 0.3}$, the width broadens, and the integral below the perturbation remains constant. Our findings are consistent with the spherical expansion and decay of a weakly shocked fast-mode MHD wave.

Large amplitude oscillatory motion along a solar filament

Large amplitude oscillations of solar filaments is a phenomenon known for more than half a century. Recently, a new mode of oscillations, characterized by periodical plasma motions along the filament axis, was discovered. We analyze such an event, recorded on 23 January 2002 in Big Bear Solar Observatory H$alpha$ filtergrams, in order to infer the triggering mechanism and the nature of the restoring force. Motion along the filament axis of a distinct buldge-like feature was traced, to quantify the kinematics of the oscillatory motion. The data were fitted by a damped sine function, to estimate the basic parameters of the oscillations. In order to identify the triggering mechanism, morphological changes in the vicinity of the filament were analyzed. The observed oscillations of the plasma along the filament was characterized by an initial displacement of 24 Mm, initial velocity amplitude of 51 km/s, period of 50 min, and damping time of 115 min. We interpret the trigger in terms of poloidal magnetic flux injection by magnetic reconnection at one of the filament legs. The restoring force is caused by the magnetic pressure gradient along the filament axis. The period of oscillations, derived from the linearized equation of motion (harmonic oscillator) can be expressed as $P=pisqrt{2}L/v_{Aphi}approx4.4L/v_{Aphi}$, where $v_{Aphi} =B_{phi0}/sqrt{mu_0rho}$ represents the Alfven speed based on the equilibrium poloidal field $B_{phi0}$. Combination of our measurements with some previous observations of the same kind of oscillations shows a good agreement with the proposed interpretation.