Blindly detecting orbital modulations of jets from merging supermassive black holes

In the last few years before merger, supermassive black hole binaries will rapidly inspiral and precess in a magnetic field imposed by a surrounding circumbinary disk. Multiple simulations suggest this relative motion will convert some of the local energy to a Poynting-dominated outflow, with a luminosity 10^{43} erg/s * (B/10^4 G)^2(M/10^8 Msun)^2 (v/0.4 c)^2, some of which may emerge as synchrotron emission at frequencies near 1 GHz where current and planned wide-field radio surveys will operate. On top of a secular increase in power on the gravitational wave inspiral timescale, orbital motion will produce significant, detectable modulations, both on orbital periods and (if black hole spins are not aligned with the binarys total angular momenta) spin-orbit precession timescales. Because the gravitational wave merger time increases rapidly with separation, we find vast numbers of these transients are ubiquitously predicted, unless explicitly ruled out (by low efficiency $epsilon$) or obscured (by accretion geometry f_{geo}). If the fraction of Poynting flux converted to radio emission times the fraction of lines of sight accessible $f_{geo}$ is sufficiently large (f_{geo} epsilon > 2times 10^{-4} for a 1 year orbital period), at least one event is accessible to future blind surveys at a nominal 10^4 {deg}^2 with 0.5 mJy sensitivity. Our procedure generalizes to other flux-limited surveys designed to investigate EM signatures associated with many modulations produced by merging SMBH binaries.

Gravitational waves from resolvable massive black hole binary systems and observations with Pulsar Timing Arrays

Massive black holes are key components of the assembly and evolution of cosmic structures and a number of surveys are currently on-going or planned to probe the demographics of these objects and to gain insight into the relevant physical processes. Pulsar Timing Arrays (PTAs) currently provide the only means to observe gravitational radiation from massive black hole binary systems with masses >10^7 solar masses. The whole cosmic population produces a stochastic background that could be detectable with upcoming Pulsar Timing Arrays. Sources sufficiently close and/or massive generate gravitational radiation that significantly exceeds the level of the background and could be individually resolved. We consider a wide range of massive black hole binary assembly scenarios, we investigate the distribution of the main physical parameters of the sources, such as masses and redshift, and explore the consequences for Pulsar Timing Arrays observations. Depending on the specific massive black hole population model, we estimate that on average at least one resolvable source produces timing residuals in the range ~5-50 ns. Pulsar Timing Arrays, and in particular the future Square Kilometre Array (SKA), can plausibly detect these unique systems, although the events are likely to be rare. These observations would naturally complement on the high-mass end of the massive black hole distribution function future surveys carried out by the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA)

LISA detection of massive black hole binaries: imprint of seed populations and of exterme recoils

All the physical processes involved in the formation, merging, and accretion history of massive black holes along the hierarchical build--up of cosmic structures are likely to leave an imprint on the gravitational waves detectable by future space--borne missions, such as LISA. We report here the results of recent studies, carried out by means of dedicated simulations of black hole build--up, aiming at understanding the impact on LISA observations of two ingredients that are crucial in every massive black hole formation scenario, namely: (i) the nature and abundance of the first black hole seeds and (ii) the large gravitational recoils following the merger of highly spinning black holes. We predict LISA detection rates spanning two order of magnitude, in the range 3-300 events per year, depending on the detail of the assumed massive black hole seed model. On the other hand, large recoil velocities do not dramatically compromise the efficiency of LISA observations. The number of detections may drop substantially (by ~60%), in scenarios characterized byabundant light seeds, but if seeds are already massive and/or relatively rare, the detection rate is basically unaffected.