The proposed PINGU project (Precision IceCube Next Generation Upgrade) is expected to collect O(10^5) atmospheric muon and electron neutrino in a few years of exposure, and to probe the neutrino mass hierarchy through its imprint on the event spectra
in energy and direction. In the presence of nonnegligible and partly unknown shape systematics, the analysis of high-statistics spectral variations will face subtle challenges that are largely unprecedented in neutrino physics. We discuss these issues both on general grounds and in the currently envisaged PINGU configuration, where we find that possible shape uncertainties at the (few) percent level can noticeably affect the sensitivity to the hierarchy. We also discuss the interplay between the mixing angle theta_23 and the PINGU sensitivity to the hierarchy. Our results suggest that more refined estimates of spectral uncertainties are needed in next-generation, large-volume atmospheric neutrino experiments.
Proposed medium-baseline reactor neutrino experiments offer unprecedented opportunities to probe, at the same time, the mass-mixing parameters which govern $ u_e$ oscillations both at short wavelength (delta m^2 and theta_{12}) and at long wavelength
(Delta m^2 and theta_{13}), as well as their tiny interference effects related to the mass hierarchy (i.e., the relative sign of Delta m^2 and delta m^2). In order to take full advantage of these opportunities, precision calculations and refined statistical analyses of event spectra are required. In such a context, we revisit several input ingredients, including: nucleon recoil in inverse beta decay and its impact on energy reconstruction and resolution, hierarchy and matter effects in the oscillation probability, spread of reactor distances, irreducible backgrounds from geoneutrinos and from far reactors, and degeneracies between energy scale and spectrum shape uncertainties. We also introduce a continuous parameter alpha, which interpolates smoothly between normal hierarchy (alpha=+1) and inverted hierarchy (alpha=-1). The determination of the hierarchy is then transformed from a test of hypothesis to a parameter estimation, with a sensitivity given by the distance of the true case (either alpha=+1 or alpha=-1) from the undecidable case (alpha=0). Numerical experiments are performed for the specific set up envisaged for the JUNO project, assuming a realistic sample of O(10^5) reactor events. We find a typical sensitivity of ~2 sigma to the hierarchy in JUNO, which, however, can be challenged by energy scale and spectrum shape systematics, whose possible conspiracy effects are investigated. The prospective accuracy reachable for the other mass-mixing parameters is also discussed.
