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Register a new user(Un)fairness in Post-operative Complication Prediction Models
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Sandhya Tripathi
Publication date
2020
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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With the current ongoing debate about fairness, explainability and transparency of machine learning models, their application in high-impact clinical decision-making systems must be scrutinized. We consider a real-life example of risk estimation before surgery and investigate the potential for bias or unfairness of a variety of algorithms. Our approach creates transparent documentation of potential bias so that the users can apply the model carefully. We augment a model-card like analysis using propensity scores with a decision-tree based guide for clinicians that would identify predictable shortcomings of the model. In addition to functioning as a guide for users, we propose that it can guide the algorithm development and informatics team to focus on data sources and structures that can address these shortcomings.
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Machine learning and data mining algorithms have been increasingly used recently to support decision-making systems in many areas of high societal importance such as healthcare, education, or security. While being very efficient in their predictive abilities, the deployed algorithms sometimes tend to learn an inductive model with a discriminative bias due to the presence of this latter in the learning sample. This problem gave rise to a new field of algorithmic fairness where the goal is to correct the discriminative bias introduced by a certain attribute in order to decorrelate it from the models output. In this paper, we study the problem of fairness for the task of edge prediction in graphs, a largely underinvestigated scenario compared to a more popular setting of fair classification. To this end, we formulate the problem of fair edge prediction, analyze it theoretically, and propose an embedding-agnostic repairing procedure for the adjacency matrix of an arbitrary graph with a trade-off between the group and individual fairness. We experimentally show the versatility of our approach and its capacity to provide explicit control over different notions of fairness and prediction accuracy.
Non-invasive and cost effective in nature, the echocardiogram allows for a comprehensive assessment of the cardiac musculature and valves. Despite progressive improvements over the decades, the rich temporally resolved data in echocardiography videos remain underutilized. Human reads of echocardiograms reduce the complex patterns of cardiac wall motion, to a small list of measurements of heart function. Furthermore, all modern echocardiography artificial intelligence (AI) systems are similarly limited by design - automating measurements of the same reductionist metrics rather than utilizing the wealth of data embedded within each echo study. This underutilization is most evident in situations where clinical decision making is guided by subjective assessments of disease acuity, and tools that predict disease onset within clinically actionable timeframes are unavailable. Predicting the likelihood of developing post-operative right ventricular failure (RV failure) in the setting of mechanical circulatory support is one such clinical example. To address this, we developed a novel video AI system trained to predict post-operative right ventricular failure (RV failure), using the full spatiotemporal density of information from pre-operative echocardiography scans. We achieve an AUC of 0.729, specificity of 52% at 80% sensitivity and 46% sensitivity at 80% specificity. Furthermore, we show that our ML system significantly outperforms a team of human experts tasked with predicting RV failure on independent clinical evaluation. Finally, the methods we describe are generalizable to any cardiac clinical decision support application where treatment or patient selection is guided by qualitative echocardiography assessments.
We present an approximation algorithm that takes a pool of pre-trained models as input and produces from it a cascaded model with similar accuracy but lower average-case cost. Applied to state-of-the-art ImageNet classification models, this yields up to a 2x reduction in floating point multiplications, and up to a 6x reduction in average-case memory I/O. The auto-generated cascades exhibit intuitive properties, such as using lower-resolution input for easier images and requiring higher prediction confidence when using a computationally cheaper model.
We introduce the framework of continuous-depth graph neural networks (GNNs). Neural graph differential equations (Neural GDEs) are formalized as the counterpart to GNNs where the input-output relationship is determined by a continuum of GNN layers, blending discrete topological structures and differential equations. The proposed framework is shown to be compatible with static GNN models and is extended to dynamic and stochastic settings through hybrid dynamical system theory. Here, Neural GDEs improve performance by exploiting the underlying dynamics geometry, further introducing the ability to accommodate irregularly sampled data. Results prove the effectiveness of the proposed models across applications, such as traffic forecasting or prediction in genetic regulatory networks.
We propose a novel formulation of group fairness in the contextual multi-armed bandit (CMAB) setting. In the CMAB setting a sequential decision maker must at each time step choose an arm to pull from a finite set of arms after observing some context for each of the potential arm pulls. In our model arms are partitioned into two or more sensitive groups based on some protected feature (e.g., age, race, or socio-economic status). Despite the fact that there may be differences in expected payout between the groups, we may wish to ensure some form of fairness between picking arms from the various groups. In this work we explore two definitions of fairness: equal group probability, wherein the probability of pulling an arm from any of the protected groups is the same; and proportional parity, wherein the probability of choosing an arm from a particular group is proportional to the size of that group. We provide a novel algorithm that can accommodate these notions of fairness for an arbitrary number of groups, and provide bounds on the regret for our algorithm. We then validate our algorithm using synthetic data as well as two real-world datasets for intervention settings wherein we want to allocate resources fairly across protected groups.
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