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Neural Processes (NPs) (Garnelo et al 2018a;b) approach regression by learning to map a context set of observed input-output pairs to a distribution over regression functions. Each function models the distribution of the output given an input, conditioned on the context. NPs have the benefit of fitting observed data efficiently with linear complexity in the number of context input-output pairs, and can learn a wide family of conditional distributions; they learn predictive distributions conditioned on context sets of arbitrary size. Nonetheless, we show that NPs suffer a fundamental drawback of underfitting, giving inaccurate predictions at the inputs of the observed data they condition on. We address this issue by incorporating attention into NPs, allowing each input location to attend to the relevant context points for the prediction. We show that this greatly improves the accuracy of predictions, results in noticeably faster training, and expands the range of functions that can be modelled.
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Asynchronous events on the continuous time domain, e.g., social media actions and stock transactions, occur frequently in the world. The ability to recognize occurrence patterns of event sequences is crucial to predict which typeof events will happen next and when. A de facto standard mathematical framework to do this is the Hawkes process. In order to enhance expressivity of multivariate Hawkes processes, conventional statistical methods and deep recurrent networks have been employed to modify its intensity function. The former is highly interpretable and requires small size of training data but relies on correct model design while the latter has less dependency on prior knowledge and is more powerful in capturing complicated patterns. We leverage pros and cons of these models and propose a self-attentive Hawkes process(SAHP). The proposed method adapts self-attention to fit the intensity function of Hawkes processes. This design has two benefits:(1) compared with conventional statistical methods, the SAHP is more powerful to identify complicated dependency relationships between temporal events; (2)compared with deep recurrent networks, the self-attention mechanism is able to capture longer historical information, and is more interpretable because the learnt attention weight tensor shows contributions of each historical event. Experiments on four real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
A neural network (NN) is a parameterised function that can be tuned via gradient descent to approximate a labelled collection of data with high precision. A Gaussian process (GP), on the other hand, is a probabilistic model that defines a distribution over possible functions, and is updated in light of data via the rules of probabilistic inference. GPs are probabilistic, data-efficient and flexible, however they are also computationally intensive and thus limited in their applicability. We introduce a class of neural latent variable models which we call Neural Processes (NPs), combining the best of both worlds. Like GPs, NPs define distributions over functions, are capable of rapid adaptation to new observations, and can estimate the uncertainty in their predictions. Like NNs, NPs are computationally efficient during training and evaluation but also learn to adapt their priors to data. We demonstrate the performance of NPs on a range of learning tasks, including regression and optimisation, and compare and contrast with related models in the literature.
Unlike in the traditional statistical modeling for which a user typically hand-specify a prior, Neural Processes (NPs) implicitly define a broad class of stochastic processes with neural networks. Given a data stream, NP learns a stochastic process that best describes the data. While this data-driven way of learning stochastic processes has proven to handle various types of data, NPs still rely on an assumption that uncertainty in stochastic processes is modeled by a single latent variable, which potentially limits the flexibility. To this end, we propose the Boostrapping Neural Process (BNP), a novel extension of the NP family using the bootstrap. The bootstrap is a classical data-driven technique for estimating uncertainty, which allows BNP to learn the stochasticity in NPs without assuming a particular form. We demonstrate the efficacy of BNP on various types of data and its robustness in the presence of model-data mismatch.
We present the group equivariant conditional neural process (EquivCNP), a meta-learning method with permutation invariance in a data set as in conventional conditional neural processes (CNPs), and it also has transformation equivariance in data space. Incorporating group equivariance, such as rotation and scaling equivariance, provides a way to consider the symmetry of real-world data. We give a decomposition theorem for permutation-invariant and group-equivariant maps, which leads us to construct EquivCNPs with an infinite-dimensional latent space to handle group symmetries. In this paper, we build architecture using Lie group convolutional layers for practical implementation. We show that EquivCNP with translation equivariance achieves comparable performance to conventional CNPs in a 1D regression task. Moreover, we demonstrate that incorporating an appropriate Lie group equivariance, EquivCNP is capable of zero-shot generalization for an image-completion task by selecting an appropriate Lie group equivariance.
Self- and mutually-exciting point processes are popular models in machine learning and statistics for dependent discrete event data. To date, most existing models assume stationary kernels (including the classical Hawkes processes) and simple parametric models. Modern applications with complex event data require more general point process models that can incorporate contextual information of the events, called marks, besides the temporal and location information. Moreover, such applications often require non-stationary models to capture more complex spatio-temporal dependence. To tackle these challenges, a key question is to devise a versatile influence kernel in the point process model. In this paper, we introduce a novel and general neural network-based non-stationary influence kernel with high expressiveness for handling complex discrete events data while providing theoretical performance guarantees. We demonstrate the superior performance of our proposed method compared with the state-of-the-art on synthetic and real data.
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