Subscribe to the gold package and get unlimited access to Shamra Academy
Register a new userInfluence of synoptic and local atmospheric patterns on PM10 air pollution levels: a model application to Naples (Italy)
70
0
0.0
(
0
)
Ask ChatGPT about the research
No Arabic abstract
We investigate the relationship between synoptic/local meteorological patterns and PM10 air pollution levels in the metropolitan area of Naples, Italy. We found that severe air pollution crises occurred when the 850 and 500 hpa geopotential heights and their relative temperatures present maximum values above the city. The most relevant synoptic parameter was the 850 hPa geopotential height, which is located about 1500 m of altitude. We compared local meteorological conditions (specifically wind stress, rain amount and thermal inversion) against the urban air pollution levels from 2009 to 2013. We found several empirical criteria for forecasting high daily PM10 air pollution levels in Naples. Pollution crises occurred when (a) the wind stress was between 1 and 2 m/s, (b) the thermal inversion between two strategic locations was at least 3{deg}C/200m and (c) it did not significantly rain for at least 7 days. Beside these meteorological conditions, severe pollution crises occurred also during festivals when fireworks and bonfires are lighted, and during anomalous breeze conditions and severe fire accidents. Finally, we propose a basic model to predict PM10 concentration levels from local meteorological conditions that can be easily forecast a few days in advance. The synthetic PM10 record predicted by the model was found to correlate with the PM10 observations with a correlation coefficient close to 0.80 with a confidence greater than 99%. The proposed model is expected to provide reliable information to city officials to carry out practical strategies to mitigate air pollution effects. Although the proposed model equation is calibrated on the topographical and meteorological conditions of Naples, it should be easily adaptable to alternative locations.
rate research
Read More
One the major factors determining the development and evolution of atmospheric convection is the sea surface temperature and its variability. Results of this thesis show that state of atmospheric convection impacts the diurnal distribution of thermal energy in the upper ocean. Under calm and clear sky conditions a shallow warm layer of several meters depth develops on the surface of the ocean. This warm layer drives an anomalous flux from the ocean to the atmosphere. A novel Kelvin wave trajectory database based on satellite data is introduced in this study. The investigation of its data shows that substantial fraction of Kelvin waves is initiated as a result of interaction with another Kelvin wave. Two distinct categories are defined and analyzed: the two- and multiple Kelvin wave initiations, and a spin off initiation. Results show that primary forcing of such waves are high diurnal cycle and/or increased wind speed and latent heat flux at the ocean surface. Variability of the ocean surface and subsurface along Kelvin wave trajectories over Indian Ocean is investigated: wind speed and latent heat flux increase and a sea surface temperature anomaly decreases during a wave passage. It is also shown that Kelvin waves are longitude-diurnal cycle phase locked over the Maritime Continent. This cycle phase locking is such that it agrees with mean, local diurnal cycle of convection in the atmosphere. The strength of the longitude-diurnal cycle phase locking differs between non-blocked Kelvin waves, which make successful transition over the Maritime Continent, and blocked waves that terminate within it. The distance between the islands of Sumatra and Borneo agrees with the distance travelled by an average Kelvin wave in one day. This suggests that the Maritime Continent may act as a filter, favoring successful propagation waves, which are in phase with the local diurnal cycle of convection.
Air pollution is a major risk factor for global health, with both ambient and household air pollution contributing substantial components of the overall global disease burden. One of the key drivers of adverse health effects is fine particulate matter ambient pollution (PM$_{2.5}$) to which an estimated 3 million deaths can be attributed annually. The primary source of information for estimating exposures has been measurements from ground monitoring networks but, although coverage is increasing, there remain regions in which monitoring is limited. Ground monitoring data therefore needs to be supplemented with information from other sources, such as satellite retrievals of aerosol optical depth and chemical transport models. A hierarchical modelling approach for integrating data from multiple sources is proposed allowing spatially-varying relationships between ground measurements and other factors that estimate air quality. Set within a Bayesian framework, the resulting Data Integration Model for Air Quality (DIMAQ) is used to estimate exposures, together with associated measures of uncertainty, on a high resolution grid covering the entire world. Bayesian analysis on this scale can be computationally challenging and here approximate Bayesian inference is performed using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations. Model selection and assessment is performed by cross-validation with the final model offering substantial increases in predictive accuracy, particularly in regions where there is sparse ground monitoring, when compared to current approaches: root mean square error (RMSE) reduced from 17.1 to 10.7, and population weighted RMSE from 23.1 to 12.1 $mu$gm$^{-3}$. Based on summaries of the posterior distributions for each grid cell, it is estimated that 92% of the worlds population reside in areas exceeding the World Health Organizations Air Quality Guidelines.
The Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) is a powerful tool for parallel computing. In the past years the performance and capabilities of GPUs have increased, and the Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA) - a parallel computing architecture - has been developed by NVIDIA to utilize this performance in general purpose computations. Here we show for the first time a possible application of GPU for environmental studies serving as a basement for decision making strategies. A stochastic Lagrangian particle model has been developed on CUDA to estimate the transport and the transformation of the radionuclides from a single point source during an accidental release. Our results show that parallel implementation achieves typical acceleration values in the order of 80-120 times compared to CPU using a single-threaded implementation on a 2.33 GHz desktop computer. Only very small differences have been found between the results obtained from GPU and CPU simulations, which are comparable with the effect of stochastic transport phenomena in atmosphere. The relatively high speedup with no additional costs to maintain this parallel architecture could result in a wide usage of GPU for diversified environmental applications in the near future.
How can we model influence between individuals in a social system, even when the network of interactions is unknown? In this article, we review the literature on the influence model, which utilizes independent time series to estimate how much the state of one actor affects the state of another actor in the system. We extend this model to incorporate dynamical parameters that allow us to infer how influence changes over time, and we provide three examples of how this model can be applied to simulated and real data. The results show that the model can recover known estimates of influence, it generates results that are consistent with other measures of social networks, and it allows us to uncover important shifts in the way states may be transmitted between actors at different points in time.
COVID-19 has forced quarantine measures in several countries across the world. These measures have proven to be effective in significantly reducing the prevalence of the virus. To date, no effective treatment or vaccine is available. In the effort of preserving both public health as well as the economical and social textures, France and Italy governments have partially released lockdown measures. Here we extrapolate the long-term behavior of the epidemics in both countries using a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model where parameters are stochastically perturbed to handle the uncertainty in the estimates of COVID-19 prevalence. Our results suggest that uncertainties in both parameters and initial conditions rapidly propagate in the model and can result in different outcomes of the epidemics leading or not to a second wave of infections. Using actual knowledge, asymptotic estimates of COVID-19 prevalence can fluctuate of order of ten millions units in both countries.
Log in to be able to interact and post comments
comments
Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
