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Register a new userTarget atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim?
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Paleoclimate data show that climate sensitivity is ~3 deg-C for doubled CO2, including only fast feedback processes. Equilibrium sensitivity, including slower surface albedo feedbacks, is ~6 deg-C for doubled CO2 for the range of climate states between glacial conditions and ice-free Antarctica. Decreasing CO2 was the main cause of a cooling trend that began 50 million years ago, large scale glaciation occurring when CO2 fell to 450 +/- 100 ppm, a level that will be exceeded within decades, barring prompt policy changes. If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm. The largest uncertainty in the target arises from possible changes of non-CO2 forcings. An initial 350 ppm CO2 target may be achievable by phasing out coal use except where CO2 is captured and adopting agricultural and forestry practices that sequester carbon. If the present overshoot of this target CO2 is not brief, there is a possibility of seeding irreversible catastrophic effects.
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Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 co-variations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise paleoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity 3 +/- 1{deg}C for 4 W/m2 CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e., 3-4{deg}C for 4 W/m2 CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state-dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapor elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make much of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.
A great possible achievement for the MMS mission would be crossing electron diffusion regions (EDR). EDR are regions in proximity of reconnection sites where electrons decouple from field lines, breaking the frozen in condition. Decades of research on reconnection have produced a widely shared map of where EDRs are. We expect reconnection to take place around a so called x-point formed by the intersection of the separatrices dividing inflowing from outflowing plasma. The EDR forms around this x-point as a small electron scale box nested inside a larger ion diffusion region. But this point of view is based on a 2D mentality. We have recently proposed that once the problem is considered in full 3D, secondary reconnection events can form [Lapenta et al., Nature Physics, 11, 690, 2015] in the outflow regions even far downstream from the primary reconnection site. We revisit here this new idea confirming that even using additional indicators of reconnection and even considering longer periods and wider distances the conclusion remains true: secondary reconnection sites form downstream of a reconnection outflow causing a sort of chain reaction of cascading reconnection sites. If we are right, MMS will have an interesting journey even when not crossing necessarily the primary site. The chances are greatly increased that even if missing a primary site during an orbit, MMS could stumble instead on one of these secondary sites.
We investigate parking in a one-dimensional lot, where cars enter at a rate $lambda$ and each attempts to park close to a target at the origin. Parked cars also depart at rate 1. An entering driver cannot see beyond the parked cars for more desirable open spots. We analyze a class of strategies in which a driver ignores open spots beyond $tau L$, where $tau$ is a risk threshold and $L$ is the location of the most distant parked car, and attempts to park at the first available spot encountered closer than $tau L$. When all drivers use this strategy, the probability to park at the best available spot is maximal when $tau=frac{1}{2}$, and parking at the best available spot occurs with probability $frac{1}{4}$.
Global temperature is a fundamental climate metric highly correlated with sea level, which implies that keeping shorelines near their present location requires keeping global temperature within or close to its preindustrial Holocene range. However, global temperature excluding short-term variability now exceeds +1degC relative to the 1880-1920 mean and annual 2016 global temperature was almost +1.3degC. We show that global temperature has risen well out of the Holocene range and Earth is now as warm as during the prior interglacial, when sea level reached 6-9 meters higher than today. Further, Earth is out of energy balance with present atmospheric composition, implying more warming is in the pipeline, and we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has accelerated markedly in the past decade. The rapidity of ice sheet and sea level response to global temperature is difficult to predict but is dependent on the magnitude of warming. Targets for limiting global warming should aim to avoid leaving global temperature at Eemian or higher levels for centuries. Such targets require negative emissions, extraction of CO2 from the air. If phasedown of fossil fuel emissions begins soon, improved agricultural and forestry practices may provide much of the extraction, and the magnitude and duration of global temperature excursion above the natural range of the current interglacial could be limited and irreversible impacts minimized. In contrast, continued high emissions place a burden on young people to undertake massive technological CO2 extraction to limit climate change and its consequences. Proposed methods of extraction have minimal estimated costs of 89-535 trillion dollars this century and have large risks and uncertain feasibility. Continued high emissions unarguably sentences young people to a massive, implausible cleanup, growing deleterious climate impacts or both.
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