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Register a new userThe human statistics of terrestrial impact cratering rate
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Lauri Jetsu
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The most significant periodicities in the terrestrial impact crater record are due to the human-signal: the bias of assigning integer values for the crater ages. This bias seems to have eluded the proponents and opponents of real periodicity in the occurrence of these events, as well as the theorists searching for an extraterrestrial explanation for such periodicity. The human-signal should be seriously considered by scientists in astronomy, geology and paleontology when searching for a connection between terrestrial major comet or asteroid impacts and mass extinctions of species.
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Rampino & Caldeira (2015) carry out a circular spectral analysis (CSA) of the terrestrial impact cratering record over the past 260 million years (Ma), and suggest a ~26 Ma periodicity of impact events. For some of the impacts in that analysis, new accurate and high-precision (robust; 2SE<2%) 40Ar-39Ar ages have recently been published, resulting in significant age shifts. In a CSA of the updated impact age list, the periodicity is strongly reduced. In a CSA of a list containing only impacts with robust ages, we find no significant periodicity for the last 500 Ma. We show that if we relax the assumption of a fully periodic impact record, assuming it to be a mix of a periodic and a random component instead, we should have found a periodic component if it contributes more than ~80% of the impacts in the last 260 Ma. The difference between our CSA and the one by Rampino & Caldeira (2015) originates in a subset of clustered impacts (i.e., with overlapping ages). The ~26 Ma periodicity seemingly carried by these clusters alone is strongly significant if tested against a random distribution of ages, but this significance disappears if it is tested against a distribution containing (randomly-spaced) clusters. The presence of a few impact age clusters (e.g., from asteroid break-up events) in an otherwise random impact record can thus give rise to false periodicity peaks in a CSA. There is currently no evidence for periodicity in the impact record.
A set of 50,000 artificial Earth impacting asteroids was used to obtain, for the first time, information about the dominance of individual impact effects such as wind blast, overpressure shock, thermal radiation, cratering, seismic shaking, ejecta deposition and tsunami for the loss of human life during an impact event for impactor sizes between 15 to 400 m and how the dominance of impact effects changes over size. Information about the dominance of each impact effect can enable disaster managers to plan for the most relevant effects in the event of an asteroid impact. Furthermore, the analysis of average casualty numbers per impactor shows that there is a significant difference in expected loss for airburst and surface impacts and that the average impact over land is an order of magnitude more dangerous than one over water.
How does the impact of a deformable droplet on a granular bed differ from that caused by a solid impactor of similar size and density? Here, we experimentally study this question and focus on the effect of intruder deformability on the crater shape. For comparable impact energies, we show that the crater diameter is larger for droplets than for solid intruders but that the impact of the latter results in deeper craters. Interestingly, for initially dense beds of packing fractions larger than 0.58, we find that the resultant excavated crater volume is independent of the intruder deformability, suggesting an impactor-independent dissipation mechanism within the sand for these dense beds.
Earth has a unique surface character among Solar System worlds. Not only does it harbor liquid water, but also large continents. An exoplanet with a similar appearance would remind us of home, but it is not obvious whether such a planet is more likely to bear life than an entirely ocean-covered waterworld---after all, surface liquid water defines the canonical habitable zone. In this proceeding, I argue that 1) Earths bimodal surface character is critical to its long-term climate stability and hence is a signpost of habitability, and 2) we will be able to constrain the surface character of terrestrial exoplanets with next-generation space missions.
Any model of tides is based on a specific hypothesis of how lagging depends on the tidal-flexure frequency. For example, Gerstenkorn (1955), MacDonald (1964), and Kaula (1964) assumed constancy of the geometric lag angle, while Singer (1968) and Mignard (1979, 1980) asserted constancy of the time lag. Thus, each of these two models was based on a certain law of scaling of the geometric lag. The actual dependence of the geometric lag on the frequency is more complicated and is determined by the rheology of the planet. Besides, each particular functional form of this dependence will unambiguously fix the appropriate form of the frequency dependence of the tidal quality factor, Q. Since at present we know the shape of the dependence of Q upon the frequency, we can reverse our line of reasoning and single out the appropriate actual frequency-dependence of the angular lag. This dependence turns out to be different from those employed hitherto, and it entails considerable alterations in the time scales of the tide-generated dynamical evolution. Phobos fall on Mars is an example we consider.
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