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Register a new userThe colour of noise in SuperWASP data and the implications for finding extra-solar planets
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A recent study demonstrated that there is significant covariance structure in the noise on data from ground-based photometric surveys designed to detect transiting extrasolar planets. Such correlation in the noise has often been overlooked, especially when predicting the number of planets a particular survey is likely to find. Indeed, the shortfall in the number of transiting extrasolar planets discovered by such surveys seems to be explained by co-variance in the noise. We analyse SuperWASP (Wide Angle Search for Planets) data and determine that there is a significant amount of correlated systematic noise present. After modelling the potential planet catch, we conclude that this noise places a significant limit on the number of planets that SuperWASP is likely to detect; and that the best way to boost the signal-to-noise ratio and limit the impact of co-variant noise is to increase the number of observed transits for each candidate transiting planet.
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We present a model of the stellar populations in the fields observed by one of the SuperWASP-N cameras in the 2004 observing season. We use the Besancon Galactic model to define the range of stellar types and metallicities present, and populate these objects with transiting extra-solar planets using the metallicity relation of Fischer & Valenti (2005). We investigate the ability of SuperWASP to detect these planets in the presence of realistic levels of correlated systematic noise (`red noise). We find that the number of planets that transit with a signal-to-noise ratio of 10 or more increases linearly with the number of nights of observations. Based on a simulation of detection rates across 20 fields observed by one camera, we predict that a total of 18.6 pm 8.0 planets should be detectable from the SuperWASP-N 2004 data alone. The best way to limit the impact of co-variant noise and increase the number of detectable planets is to boost the signal-to-noise ratio, by increasing the number of observed transits for each candidate transiting planet. This requires the observing baseline to be increased, by spending a second observing season monitoring the same fields.
We present the results of realistic end-to-end simulations of observations of nearby stars with the proposed global astrometry mission GAIA, recently recommended within the context of ESAs Horizon 2000 Plus long-term scientific program. We show that under realistic, if challenging, assumptions, GAIA will be capable of surveying the solar neighborhood within 100-200 pc for the astrometric signatures of planets around stars down to V = 16 mag. The wealth of results on the frequency and properties of massive planets from GAIA observations will provide a formidable testing ground on which to confront the most sophisticated theories on planetary formation and evolution. Finally, we suggest the possibility of more sophisticated probabilistic detection techniques which may be able to detect the presence of Earth-like planets around stars within 20 pc.
Exoplanet surveys have confirmed one of humanitys (and all teenagers) worst fears: we are weird. If our Solar System were observed with present-day Earth technology -- to put our system and exoplanets on the same footing -- Jupiter is the only planet that would be detectable. The statistics of exo-Jupiters indicate that the Solar System is unusual at the ~1% level among Sun-like stars (or ~0.1% among all stars). But why are we different? Successful formation models for both the Solar System and exoplanet systems rely on two key processes: orbital migration and dynamical instability. Systems of close-in super-Earths or sub-Neptunes require substantial radial inward motion of solids either as drifting mm- to cm-sized pebbles or migrating Earth-mass or larger planetary embryos. We argue that, regardless of their formation mode, the late evolution of super-Earth systems involves migration into chains of mean motion resonances, generally followed by instability when the disk dissipates. This pattern is likely also ubiquitous in giant planet systems. We present three models for inner Solar System formation -- the low-mass asteroid belt, Grand Tack, and Early Instability models -- each invoking a combination of migration and instability. We identify bifurcation points in planetary system formation. We present a series of events to explain why our Solar System is so weird. Jupiters core must have formed fast enough to quench the growth of Earths building blocks by blocking the flux of inward-drifting pebbles. The large Jupiter/Saturn mass ratio is rare among giant exoplanets but may be required to maintain Jupiters wide orbit. The giant planets instability must have been gentle, with no close encounters between Jupiter and Saturn, also unusual in the larger (exoplanet) context. Our Solar System system is thus the outcome of multiple unusual, but not unheard of, events.
All extra-solar planet masses that have been derived spectroscopically are lower limits since the inclination of the orbit to our line-of-sight is unknown except for transiting systems. It is, however, possible to determine the inclination angle, i, between the rotation axis of a star and an observers line-of-sight from measurements of the projected equatorial velocity (v sin i), the stellar rotation period (P_rot) and the stellar radius (R_star). This allows the removal of the sin i dependency of spectroscopically derived extra-solar planet masses under the assumption that the planetary orbits lie perpendicular to the stellar rotation axis. We have carried out an extensive literature search and present a catalogue of v sin i, P_rot, and R_star estimates for exoplanet host stars. In addition, we have used Hipparcos parallaxes and the Barnes-Evans relationship to further supplement the R_star estimates obtained from the literature. Using this catalogue, we have obtained sin i estimates using a Markov-chain Monte Carlo analysis. This allows proper 1-sigma two-tailed confidence limits to be placed on the derived sin is along with the transit probability for each planet to be determined. While a small proportion of systems yield sin is significantly greater than 1, most likely due to poor P_rot estimations, the large majority are acceptable. We are further encouraged by the cases where we have data on transiting systems, as the technique indicates inclinations of ~90 degrees and high transit probabilities. In total, we estimate the true masses of 133 extra-solar planets. Of these, only 6 have revised masses that place them above the 13 Jupiter mass deuterium burning limit. Our work reveals a population of high-mass planets with low eccentricities and we speculate that these may represent the signature of different planetary formation mechanisms at work.
This paper summarizes the information gathered for 16 still unpublished exoplanet candidates discovered with the CORALIE echelle spectrograph mounted on the Euler Swiss telescope at La Silla Observatory. Amongst these new candidates, 10 are typical extrasolar Jupiter-like planets on intermediate- or long-period (100<P<1350d) and fairly eccentric (0.2<e<0.5) orbits (HD19994, HD65216, HD92788, HD111232, HD114386, HD142415, HD147513, HD196050, HD216437, HD216770). Two of these stars are in binary systems. The next 3 candidates are shorter-period planets (HD6434, HD121504) with lower eccentricities among which a hot Jupiter (HD83443). More interesting cases are finally given by the multiple-planet systems HD82943 and HD169830. The former is a resonant P_2/P_1=2/1 system in which planet-planet interactions are influencing the system evolution. The latter is more hierarchically structured.
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