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Conditional Neural Processes (CNP; Garnelo et al., 2018) are an attractive family of meta-learning models which produce well-calibrated predictions, enable fast inference at test time, and are trainable via a simple maximum likelihood procedure. A limitation of CNPs is their inability to model dependencies in the outputs. This significantly hurts predictive performance and renders it impossible to draw coherent function samples, which limits the applicability of CNPs in down-stream applications and decision making. Neural Processes (NPs; Garnelo et al., 2018) attempt to alleviate this issue by using latent variables, relying on these to model output dependencies, but introduces difficulties stemming from approximate inference. One recent alternative (Bruinsma et al.,2021), which we refer to as the FullConvGNP, models dependencies in the predictions while still being trainable via exact maximum-likelihood. Unfortunately, the FullConvGNP relies on expensive 2D-dimensional convolutions, which limit its applicability to only one-dimensional data. In this work, we present an alternative way to model output dependencies which also lends itself maximum likelihood training but, unlike the FullConvGNP, can be scaled to two- and three-dimensional data. The proposed models exhibit good performance in synthetic experiments.
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Motivated by objects such as electric fields or fluid streams, we study the problem of learning stochastic fields, i.e. stochastic processes whose samples are fields like those occurring in physics and engineering. Considering general transformations such as rotations and reflections, we show that spatial invariance of stochastic fields requires an inference model to be equivariant. Leveraging recent advances from the equivariance literature, we study equivariance in two classes of models. Firstly, we fully characterise equivariant Gaussian processes. Secondly, we introduce Steerable Conditional Neural Processes (SteerCNPs), a new, fully equivariant member of the Neural Process family. In experiments with Gaussian process vector fields, images, and real-world weather data, we observe that SteerCNPs significantly improve the performance of previous models and equivariance leads to improvements in transfer learning tasks.
Gaussian processes (GPs) enable principled computation of model uncertainty, making them attractive for safety-critical applications. Such scenarios demand that GP decisions are not only accurate, but also robust to perturbations. In this paper we present a framework to analyse adversarial robustness of GPs, defined as invariance of the models decision to bounded perturbations. Given a compact subset of the input space $Tsubseteq mathbb{R}^d$, a point $x^*$ and a GP, we provide provable guarantees of adversarial robustness of the GP by computing lower and upper bounds on its prediction range in $T$. We develop a branch-and-bound scheme to refine the bounds and show, for any $epsilon > 0$, that our algorithm is guaranteed to converge to values $epsilon$-close to the actual values in finitely many iterations. The algorithm is anytime and can handle both regression and classification tasks, with analytical formulation for most kernels used in practice. We evaluate our methods on a collection of synthetic and standard benchmark datasets, including SPAM, MNIST and FashionMNIST. We study the effect of approximate inference techniques on robustness and demonstrate how our method can be used for interpretability. Our empirical results suggest that the adversarial robustness of GPs increases with accurate posterior estimation.
Approximate inference techniques are the cornerstone of probabilistic methods based on Gaussian process priors. Despite this, most work approximately optimizes standard divergence measures such as the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, which lack the basic desiderata for the task at hand, while chiefly offering merely technical convenience. We develop a new approximate inference method for Gaussian process models which overcomes the technical challenges arising from abandoning these convenient divergences. Our method---dubbed Quantile Propagation (QP)---is similar to expectation propagation (EP) but minimizes the $L_2$ Wasserstein distance (WD) instead of the KL divergence. The WD exhibits all the required properties of a distance metric, while respecting the geometry of the underlying sample space. We show that QP matches quantile functions rather than moments as in EP and has the same mean update but a smaller variance update than EP, thereby alleviating EPs tendency to over-estimate posterior variances. Crucially, despite the significant complexity of dealing with the WD, QP has the same favorable locality property as EP, and thereby admits an efficient algorithm. Experiments on classification and Poisson regression show that QP outperforms both EP and variational Bayes.
The generalization properties of Gaussian processes depend heavily on the choice of kernel, and this choice remains a dark art. We present the Neural Kernel Network (NKN), a flexible family of kernels represented by a neural network. The NKN architecture is based on the composition rules for kernels, so that each unit of the network corresponds to a valid kernel. It can compactly approximate compositional kernel structures such as those used by the Automatic Statistician (Lloyd et al., 2014), but because the architecture is differentiable, it is end-to-end trainable with gradient-based optimization. We show that the NKN is universal for the class of stationary kernels. Empirically we demonstrate pattern discovery and extrapolation abilities of NKN on several tasks that depend crucially on identifying the underlying structure, including time series and texture extrapolation, as well as Bayesian optimization.
A neural network (NN) is a parameterised function that can be tuned via gradient descent to approximate a labelled collection of data with high precision. A Gaussian process (GP), on the other hand, is a probabilistic model that defines a distribution over possible functions, and is updated in light of data via the rules of probabilistic inference. GPs are probabilistic, data-efficient and flexible, however they are also computationally intensive and thus limited in their applicability. We introduce a class of neural latent variable models which we call Neural Processes (NPs), combining the best of both worlds. Like GPs, NPs define distributions over functions, are capable of rapid adaptation to new observations, and can estimate the uncertainty in their predictions. Like NNs, NPs are computationally efficient during training and evaluation but also learn to adapt their priors to data. We demonstrate the performance of NPs on a range of learning tasks, including regression and optimisation, and compare and contrast with related models in the literature.
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