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Register a new userData-driven expectations for electromagnetic counterpart searches based on LIGO/Virgo public alerts
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Searches for electromagnetic counterparts of gravitational-wave signals have redoubled since the first detection in 2017 of a binary neutron star merger with a gamma-ray burst, optical/infrared kilonova, and panchromatic afterglow. Yet, one LIGO/Virgo observing run later, there has not yet been a second, secure identification of an electromagnetic counterpart. This is not surprising given that the localization uncertainties of events in LIGO and Virgos third observing run, O3, were much larger than predicted. We explain this by showing that improvements in data analysis that now allow LIGO/Virgo to detect weaker and hence more poorly-localized events have increased the overall number of detections, of which well-localized, gold-plated events make a smaller proportion overall. We present simulations of the next two LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA observing runs, O4 and O5, that are grounded in the statistics of O3 public alerts. To illustrate the significant impact that the updated predictions can have, we study the follow-up strategy for the Zwicky Transient Facility. Realistic and timely forecasting of gravitational-wave localization accuracy is paramount given the large commitments of telescope time and the need to prioritize which events are followed up. We include a data release of our simulated localizations as a public proposal planning resource for astronomers.
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The Fermi collaboration identified a possible electromagnetic counterpart of the gravitational wave event of September 14, 2015. Our goal is to provide an unsupervised data analysis algorithm to identify similar events in Fermis Gamma-ray Burst Monitor CTTE data stream. We are looking for signals that are typically weak. Therefore, they can only be found by a careful analysis of count rates of all detectors and energy channels simultaneously. Our Automatized Detector Weight Optimization (ADWO) method consists of a search for the signal, and a test of its significance. We developed ADWO, a virtual detector analysis tool for multi-channel multi-detector signals, and performed successful searches for short transients in the data-streams. We have identified GRB150522B, as well as possible electromagnetic candidates of the transients GW150914 and LVT151012. ADWO is an independently developed, unsupervised data analysis tool that only relies on the raw data of the Fermi satellite. It can therefore provide a strong, independent test to any electromagnetic signal accompanying future gravitational wave observations.
In this work we continue a line of inquiry begun in Kanner et al. which detailed a strategy for utilizing telescopes with narrow fields of view, such as the Swift X-ray Telescope (XRT), to localize gravity wave (GW) triggers from LIGO/Virgo. If one considers the brightest galaxies that produce ~50% of the light, then the number of galaxies inside typical GW error boxes will be several tens. We have found that this result applies both in the early years of Advanced LIGO when the range is small and the error boxes large, and in the later years when the error boxes will be small and the range large. This strategy has the beneficial property of reducing the number of telescope pointings by a factor 10 to 100 compared with tiling the entire error box. Additional galaxy count reduction will come from a GW rapid distance estimate which will restrict the radial slice in search volume. Combining the bright galaxy strategy with a convolution based on anticipated GW localizations, we find that the searches can be restricted to about 18+/-5 galaxies for 2015, about 23+/-4 for 2017, and about 11+/-2 for 2020. This assumes a distance localization at or near the putative NS-NS merger range for each target year, and these totals are integrated out to the range. Integrating out to the horizon would roughly double the totals. For nearer localizations the totals would decrease. The galaxy strategy we present in this work will enable numerous sensitive optical and X-ray telescopes with small fields of view to participate meaningfully in searches wherein the prospects for rapidly fading afterglow place a premium on a fast response time.
We anticipate the first direct detections of gravitational waves (GWs) with Advanced LIGO and Virgo later this decade. Though this groundbreaking technical achievement will be its own reward, a still greater prize could be observations of compact binary mergers in both gravitational and electromagnetic channels simultaneously. During Advanced LIGO and Virgos first two years of operation, 2015 through 2016, we expect the global GW detector array to improve in sensitivity and livetime and expand from two to three detectors. We model the detection rate and the sky localization accuracy for binary neutron star (BNS) mergers across this transition. We have analyzed a large, astrophysically motivated source population using real-time detection and sky localization codes and higher-latency parameter estimation codes that have been expressly built for operation in the Advanced LIGO/Virgo era. We show that for most BNS events the rapid sky localization, available about a minute after a detection, is as accurate as the full parameter estimation. We demonstrate that Advanced Virgo will play an important role in sky localization, even though it is anticipated to come online with only one-third as much sensitivity as the Advanced LIGO detectors. We find that the median 90% confidence region shrinks from ~500 square degrees in 2015 to ~200 square degrees in 2016. A few distinct scenarios for the first LIGO/Virgo detections emerge from our simulations.
We present results from searches of recent LIGO and Virgo data for continuous gravitational wave signals (CW) from spinning neutron stars and for a stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB). The first part of the talk is devoted to CW analysis with a focus on two types of searches. In the targeted search of known neutron stars a precise knowledge of the star parameters is used to apply optimal filtering methods. In the absence of a signal detection, in a few cases, an upper limit on strain amplitude can be set that beats the spindown limit derived from attributing spin-down energy loss to the emission of gravitational waves. In contrast, blind all-sky searches are not directed at specific sources, but rather explore as large a portion of the parameter space as possible. Fully coherent methods cannot be used for these kind of searches which pose a non trivial computational challenge. The second part of the talk is focused on SGWB searches. A stochastic background of gravitational waves is expected to be produced by the superposition of many incoherent sources of cosmological or astrophysical origin. Given the random nature of this kind of signal, it is not possible to distinguish it from noise using a single detector. A typical data analysis strategy relies on cross-correlating the data from a pair or several pairs of detectors, which allows discriminating the searched signal from instrumental noise. Expected sensitivities and prospects for detection from the next generation of interferometers are also discussed for both kind of sources.
The first two LIGO and Virgo observation runs have been important milestones in the gravitational wave (GW) field, thanks to the detection of GW signals from ten binary black hole systems and a binary neutron star system. In order to fully characterize the emitting source, the remnant object and its environment, electromagnetic follow-up observations at different wavelengths are essential, as learned from the GW170817/GRB170817A case. Given the quite large localization uncertainties provided by interferometers, the main challenge faced by facilities with a narrow field of view (e.g. Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes, IACTs) is to setup a suitable follow-up strategy in order to observe sky regions with the highest probability to host the electromagnetic (EM) counterpart of the GW signal. As member of the EM follow-up community, the MAGIC collaboration joined this effort in 2014. As the third observation run (O3) is currently ongoing, where both LIGO and Virgo are expected to have much better sensitivities, MAGIC is refining its follow-up strategy to maximize the chances of observing the EM counterparts as soon as possible. In this contribution we will describe this strategy, focusing on the different observation cases, which mainly depends on the information available from both GW and EM partner facilities.
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