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Register a new userIdentifiable Energy-based Representations: An Application to Estimating Heterogeneous Causal Effects
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Conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) allow us to understand the effect heterogeneity across a large population of individuals. However, typical CATE learners assume all confounding variables are measured in order for the CATE to be identifiable. Often, this requirement is satisfied by simply collecting many variables, at the expense of increased sample complexity for estimating CATEs. To combat this, we propose an energy-based model (EBM) that learns a low-dimensional representation of the variables by employing a noise contrastive loss function. With our EBM we introduce a preprocessing step that alleviates the dimensionality curse for any existing model and learner developed for estimating CATE. We prove that our EBM keeps the representations partially identifiable up to some universal constant, as well as having universal approximation capability to avoid excessive information loss from model misspecification; these properties combined with our loss function, enable the representations to converge and keep the CATE estimation consistent. Experiments demonstrate the convergence of the representations, as well as show that estimating CATEs on our representations performs better than on the variables or the representations obtained via various benchmark dimensionality reduction methods.
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Estimating the Individual Treatment Effect from observational data, defined as the difference between outcomes with and without treatment or intervention, while observing just one of both, is a challenging problems in causal learning. In this paper, we formulate this problem as an inference from hidden variables and enforce causal constraints based on a model of four exclusive causal populations. We propose a new version of the EM algorithm, coined as Expected-Causality-Maximization (ECM) algorithm and provide hints on its convergence under mild conditions. We compare our algorithm to baseline methods on synthetic and real-world data and discuss its performances.
It is commonplace to encounter heterogeneous or nonstationary data, of which the underlying generating process changes across domains or over time. Such a distribution shift feature presents both challenges and opportunities for causal discovery. In this paper, we develop a framework for causal discovery from such data, called Constraint-based causal Discovery from heterogeneous/NOnstationary Data (CD-NOD), to find causal skeleton and directions and estimate the properties of mechanism changes. First, we propose an enhanced constraint-based procedure to detect variables whose local mechanisms change and recover the skeleton of the causal structure over observed variables. Second, we present a method to determine causal orientations by making use of independent changes in the data distribution implied by the underlying causal model, benefiting from information carried by changing distributions. After learning the causal structure, next, we investigate how to efficiently estimate the driving force of the nonstationarity of a causal mechanism. That is, we aim to extract from data a low-dimensional representation of changes. The proposed methods are nonparametric, with no hard restrictions on data distributions and causal mechanisms, and do not rely on window segmentation. Furthermore, we find that data heterogeneity benefits causal structure identification even with particular types of confounders. Finally, we show the connection between heterogeneity/nonstationarity and soft intervention in causal discovery. Experimental results on various synthetic and real-world data sets (task-fMRI and stock market data) are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methods.
Forest-based methods have recently gained in popularity for non-parametric treatment effect estimation. Building on this line of work, we introduce causal survival forests, which can be used to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects in a survival and observational setting where outcomes may be right-censored. Our approach relies on orthogonal estimating equations to robustly adjust for both censoring and selection effects. In our experiments, we find our approach to perform well relative to a number of baselines.
Proxy causal learning (PCL) is a method for estimating the causal effect of treatments on outcomes in the presence of unobserved confounding, using proxies (structured side information) for the confounder. This is achieved via two-stage regression: in the first stage, we model relations among the treatment and proxies; in the second stage, we use this model to learn the effect of treatment on the outcome, given the context provided by the proxies. PCL guarantees recovery of the true causal effect, subject to identifiability conditions. We propose a novel method for PCL, the deep feature proxy variable method (DFPV), to address the case where the proxies, treatments, and outcomes are high-dimensional and have nonlinear complex relationships, as represented by deep neural network features. We show that DFPV outperforms recent state-of-the-art PCL methods on challenging synthetic benchmarks, including settings involving high dimensional image data. Furthermore, we show that PCL can be applied to off-policy evaluation for the confounded bandit problem, in which DFPV also exhibits competitive performance.
Causal discovery aims to recover causal structures or models underlying the observed data. Despite its success in certain domains, most existing methods focus on causal relations between observed variables, while in many scenarios the observed ones may not be the underlying causal variables (e.g., image pixels), but are generated by latent causal variables or confounders that are causally related. To this end, in this paper, we consider Linear, Non-Gaussian Latent variable Models (LiNGLaMs), in which latent confounders are also causally related, and propose a Generalized Independent Noise (GIN) condition to estimate such latent variable graphs. Specifically, for two observed random vectors $mathbf{Y}$ and $mathbf{Z}$, GIN holds if and only if $omega^{intercal}mathbf{Y}$ and $mathbf{Z}$ are statistically independent, where $omega$ is a parameter vector characterized from the cross-covariance between $mathbf{Y}$ and $mathbf{Z}$. From the graphical view, roughly speaking, GIN implies that causally earlier latent common causes of variables in $mathbf{Y}$ d-separate $mathbf{Y}$ from $mathbf{Z}$. Interestingly, we find that the independent noise condition, i.e., if there is no confounder, causes are independent from the error of regressing the effect on the causes, can be seen as a special case of GIN. Moreover, we show that GIN helps locate latent variables and identify their causal structure, including causal directions. We further develop a recursive learning algorithm to achieve these goals. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.
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