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Register a new userGeneralized Independent Noise Condition for Estimating Latent Variable Causal Graphs
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Causal discovery aims to recover causal structures or models underlying the observed data. Despite its success in certain domains, most existing methods focus on causal relations between observed variables, while in many scenarios the observed ones may not be the underlying causal variables (e.g., image pixels), but are generated by latent causal variables or confounders that are causally related. To this end, in this paper, we consider Linear, Non-Gaussian Latent variable Models (LiNGLaMs), in which latent confounders are also causally related, and propose a Generalized Independent Noise (GIN) condition to estimate such latent variable graphs. Specifically, for two observed random vectors $mathbf{Y}$ and $mathbf{Z}$, GIN holds if and only if $omega^{intercal}mathbf{Y}$ and $mathbf{Z}$ are statistically independent, where $omega$ is a parameter vector characterized from the cross-covariance between $mathbf{Y}$ and $mathbf{Z}$. From the graphical view, roughly speaking, GIN implies that causally earlier latent common causes of variables in $mathbf{Y}$ d-separate $mathbf{Y}$ from $mathbf{Z}$. Interestingly, we find that the independent noise condition, i.e., if there is no confounder, causes are independent from the error of regressing the effect on the causes, can be seen as a special case of GIN. Moreover, we show that GIN helps locate latent variables and identify their causal structure, including causal directions. We further develop a recursive learning algorithm to achieve these goals. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.
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How do we learn from biased data? Historical datasets often reflect historical prejudices; sensitive or protected attributes may affect the observed treatments and outcomes. Classification algorithms tasked with predicting outcomes accurately from these datasets tend to replicate these biases. We advocate a causal modeling approach to learning from biased data, exploring the relationship between fair classification and intervention. We propose a causal model in which the sensitive attribute confounds both the treatment and the outcome. Building on prior work in deep learning and generative modeling, we describe how to learn the parameters of this causal model from observational data alone, even in the presence of unobserved confounders. We show experimentally that fairness-aware causal modeling provides better estimates of the causal effects between the sensitive attribute, the treatment, and the outcome. We further present evidence that estimating these causal effects can help learn policies that are both more accurate and fair, when presented with a historically biased dataset.
Current supervised learning can learn spurious correlation during the data-fitting process, imposing issues regarding interpretability, out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization, and robustness. To avoid spurious correlation, we propose a Latent Causal Invariance Model (LaCIM) which pursues causal prediction. Specifically, we introduce latent variables that are separated into (a) output-causative factors and (b) others that are spuriously correlated to the output via confounders, to model the underlying causal factors. We further assume the generating mechanisms from latent space to observed data to be causally invariant. We give the identifiable claim of such invariance, particularly the disentanglement of output-causative factors from others, as a theoretical guarantee for precise inference and avoiding spurious correlation. We propose a Variational-Bayesian-based method for estimation and to optimize over the latent space for prediction. The utility of our approach is verified by improved interpretability, prediction power on various OOD scenarios (including healthcare) and robustness on security.
A popular way to estimate the causal effect of a variable x on y from observational data is to use an instrumental variable (IV): a third variable z that affects y only through x. The more strongly z is associated with x, the more reliable the estimate is, but such strong IVs are difficult to find. Instead, practitioners combine more commonly available IV candidates---which are not necessarily strong, or even valid, IVs---into a single summary that is plugged into causal effect estimators in place of an IV. In genetic epidemiology, such approaches are known as allele scores. Allele scores require strong assumptions---independence and validity of all IV candidates---for the resulting estimate to be reliable. To relax these assumptions, we propose Ivy, a new method to combine IV candidates that can handle correlated and invalid IV candidates in a robust manner. Theoretically, we characterize this robustness, its limits, and its impact on the resulting causal estimates. Empirically, Ivy can correctly identify the directionality of known relationships and is robust against false discovery (median effect size <= 0.025) on three real-world datasets with no causal effects, while allele scores return more biased estimates (median effect size >= 0.118).
Estimating the Individual Treatment Effect from observational data, defined as the difference between outcomes with and without treatment or intervention, while observing just one of both, is a challenging problems in causal learning. In this paper, we formulate this problem as an inference from hidden variables and enforce causal constraints based on a model of four exclusive causal populations. We propose a new version of the EM algorithm, coined as Expected-Causality-Maximization (ECM) algorithm and provide hints on its convergence under mild conditions. We compare our algorithm to baseline methods on synthetic and real-world data and discuss its performances.
Runtime and scalability of large neural networks can be significantly affected by the placement of operations in their dataflow graphs on suitable devices. With increasingly complex neural network architectures and heterogeneous device characteristics, finding a reasonable placement is extremely challenging even for domain experts. Most existing automated device placement approaches are impractical due to the significant amount of compute required and their inability to generalize to new, previously held-out graphs. To address both limitations, we propose an efficient end-to-end method based on a scalable sequential attention mechanism over a graph neural network that is transferable to new graphs. On a diverse set of representative deep learning models, including Inception-v3, AmoebaNet, Transformer-XL, and WaveNet, our method on average achieves 16% improvement over human experts and 9.2% improvement over the prior art with 15 times faster convergence. To further reduce the computation cost, we pre-train the policy network on a set of dataflow graphs and use a superposition network to fine-tune it on each individual graph, achieving state-of-the-art performance on large hold-out graphs with over 50k nodes, such as an 8-layer GNMT.
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