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Register a new userPolicy Optimization in Bayesian Network Hybrid Models of Biomanufacturing Processes
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Added by
Wei Xie
Publication date
2021
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Biopharmaceutical manufacturing is a rapidly growing industry with impact in virtually all branches of medicine. Biomanufacturing processes require close monitoring and control, in the presence of complex bioprocess dynamics with many interdependent factors, as well as extremely limited data due to the high cost and long duration of experiments. We develop a novel model-based reinforcement learning framework that can achieve human-level control in low-data environments. The model uses a probabilistic knowledge graph to capture causal interdependencies between factors in the underlying stochastic decision process, leveraging information from existing kinetic models from different unit operations while incorporating real-world experimental data. We then present a computationally efficient, provably convergent stochastic gradient method for policy optimization. Validation is conducted on a realistic application with a multi-dimensional, continuous state variable.
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We tackle the issue of finding a good policy when the number of policy updates is limited. This is done by approximating the expected policy reward as a sequence of concave lower bounds which can be efficiently maximized, drastically reducing the number of policy updates required to achieve good performance. We also extend existing methods to negative rewards, enabling the use of control variates.
We study worst-case guarantees on the expected return of fixed-dataset policy optimization algorithms. Our core contribution is a unified conceptual and mathematical framework for the study of algorithms in this regime. This analysis reveals that for naive approaches, the possibility of erroneous value overestimation leads to a difficult-to-satisfy requirement: in order to guarantee that we select a policy which is near-optimal, we may need the dataset to be informative of the value of every policy. To avoid this, algorithms can follow the pessimism principle, which states that we should choose the policy which acts optimally in the worst possible world. We show why pessimistic algorithms can achieve good performance even when the dataset is not informative of every policy, and derive families of algorithms which follow this principle. These theoretical findings are validated by experiments on a tabular gridworld, and deep learning experiments on four MinAtar environments.
Bayesian hybrid models fuse physics-based insights with machine learning constructs to correct for systematic bias. In this paper, we compare Bayesian hybrid models against physics-based glass-box and Gaussian process black-box surrogate models. We consider ballistic firing as an illustrative case study for a Bayesian decision-making workflow. First, Bayesian calibration is performed to estimate model parameters. We then use the posterior distribution from Bayesian analysis to compute optimal firing conditions to hit a target via a single-stage stochastic program. The case study demonstrates the ability of Bayesian hybrid models to overcome systematic bias from missing physics with less data than the pure machine learning approach. Ultimately, we argue Bayesian hybrid models are an emerging paradigm for data-informed decision-making under parametric and epistemic uncertainty.
In Goal-oriented Reinforcement learning, relabeling the raw goals in past experience to provide agents with hindsight ability is a major solution to the reward sparsity problem. In this paper, to enhance the diversity of relabeled goals, we develop FGI (Foresight Goal Inference), a new relabeling strategy that relabels the goals by looking into the future with a learned dynamics model. Besides, to improve sample efficiency, we propose to use the dynamics model to generate simulated trajectories for policy training. By integrating these two improvements, we introduce the MapGo framework (Model-Assisted Policy Optimization for Goal-oriented tasks). In our experiments, we first show the effectiveness of the FGI strategy compared with the hindsight one, and then show that the MapGo framework achieves higher sample efficiency when compared to model-free baselines on a set of complicated tasks.
Heuristics in theorem provers are often parameterised. Modern theorem provers such as Vampire utilise a wide array of heuristics to control the search space explosion, thereby requiring optimisation of a large set of parameters. An exhaustive search in this multi-dimensional parameter space is intractable in most cases, yet the performance of the provers is highly dependent on the parameter assignment. In this work, we introduce a principled probablistic framework for heuristics optimisation in theorem provers. We present results using a heuristic for premise selection and The Archive of Formal Proofs (AFP) as a case study.
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