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Register a new userA Metamodel Structure For Regression Analysis: Application To Prediction Of Autism Spectrum Disorder Severity
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Traditional regression models do not generalize well when learning from small and noisy datasets. Here we propose a novel metamodel structure to improve the regression result. The metamodel is composed of multiple classification base models and a regression model built upon the base models. We test this structure on the prediction of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) severity as measured by the ADOS communication (ADOS COMM) score from resting-state fMRI data, using a variety of base models. The metamodel outperforms traditional regression models as measured by the Pearson correlation coefficient between true and predicted scores and stability. In addition, we found that the metamodel is more flexible and more generalizable.
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Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a developmental disorder that influences the communication and social behavior of a person in a way that those in the spectrum have difficulty in perceiving other peoples facial expressions, as well as presenting and communicating emotions and affect via their own faces and bodies. Some efforts have been made to predict and improve children with ASDs affect states in play therapy, a common method to improve childrens social skills via play and games. However, many previous works only used pre-trained models on benchmark emotion datasets and failed to consider the distinction in emotion between typically developing children and children with autism. In this paper, we present an open-source two-stage multi-modal approach leveraging acoustic and visual cues to predict three main affect states of children with ASDs affect states (positive, negative, and neutral) in real-world play therapy scenarios, and achieved an overall accuracy of 72:40%. This work presents a novel way to combine human expertise and machine intelligence for ASD affect recognition by proposing a two-stage schema.
While unsupervised variational autoencoders (VAE) have become a powerful tool in neuroimage analysis, their application to supervised learning is under-explored. We aim to close this gap by proposing a unified probabilistic model for learning the latent space of imaging data and performing supervised regression. Based on recent advances in learning disentangled representations, the novel generative process explicitly models the conditional distribution of latent representations with respect to the regression target variable. Performing a variational inference procedure on this model leads to joint regularization between the VAE and a neural-network regressor. In predicting the age of 245 subjects from their structural Magnetic Resonance (MR) images, our model is more accurate than state-of-the-art methods when applied to either region-of-interest (ROI) measurements or raw 3D volume images. More importantly, unlike simple feed-forward neural-networks, disentanglement of age in latent representations allows for intuitive interpretation of the structural developmental patterns of the human brain.
Various approaches have explored the covariation of residues in multiple-sequence alignments of homologous proteins to extract functional and structural information. Among those are principal component analysis (PCA), which identifies the most correlated groups of residues, and direct coupling analysis (DCA), a global inference method based on the maximum entropy principle, which aims at predicting residue-residue contacts. In this paper, inspired by the statistical physics of disordered systems, we introduce the Hopfield-Potts model to naturally interpolate between these two approaches. The Hopfield-Potts model allows us to identify relevant patterns of residues from the knowledge of the eigenmodes and eigenvalues of the residue-residue correlation matrix. We show how the computation of such statistical patterns makes it possible to accurately predict residue-residue contacts with a much smaller number of parameters than DCA. This dimensional reduction allows us to avoid overfitting and to extract contact information from multiple-sequence alignments of reduced size. In addition, we show that low-eigenvalue correlation modes, discarded by PCA, are important to recover structural information: the corresponding patterns are highly localized, that is, they are concentrated in few sites, which we find to be in close contact in the three-dimensional protein fold.
As the second wave in India mitigates, COVID-19 has now infected about 29 million patients countrywide, leading to more than 350 thousand people dead. As the infections surged, the strain on the medical infrastructure in the country became apparent. While the country vaccinates its population, opening up the economy may lead to an increase in infection rates. In this scenario, it is essential to effectively utilize the limited hospital resources by an informed patient triaging system based on clinical parameters. Here, we present two interpretable machine learning models predicting the clinical outcomes, severity, and mortality, of the patients based on routine non-invasive surveillance of blood parameters from one of the largest cohorts of Indian patients at the day of admission. Patient severity and mortality prediction models achieved 86.3% and 88.06% accuracy, respectively, with an AUC-ROC of 0.91 and 0.92. We have integrated both the models in a user-friendly web app calculator, https://triage-COVID-19.herokuapp.com/, to showcase the potential deployment of such efforts at scale.
Confounding variables are a well known source of nuisance in biomedical studies. They present an even greater challenge when we combine them with black-box machine learning techniques that operate on raw data. This work presents two case studies. In one, we discovered biases arising from systematic errors in the data generation process. In the other, we found a spurious source of signal unrelated to the prediction task at hand. In both cases, our prediction models performed well but under careful examination hidden confounders and biases were revealed. These are cautionary tales on the limits of using machine learning techniques on raw data from scientific experiments.
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