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Register a new userPrediction in the presence of response-dependent missing labels
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In a variety of settings, limitations of sensing technologies or other sampling mechanisms result in missing labels, where the likelihood of a missing label in the training set is an unknown function of the data. For example, satellites used to detect forest fires cannot sense fires below a certain size threshold. In such cases, training datasets consist of positive and pseudo-negative observations where pseudo-negative observations can be either true negatives or undetected positives with small magnitudes. We develop a new methodology and non-convex algorithm P(ositive) U(nlabeled) - O(ccurrence) M(agnitude) M(ixture) which jointly estimates the occurrence and detection likelihood of positive samples, utilizing prior knowledge of the detection mechanism. Our approach uses ideas from positive-unlabeled (PU)-learning and zero-inflated models that jointly estimate the magnitude and occurrence of events. We provide conditions under which our model is identifiable and prove that even though our approach leads to a non-convex objective, any local minimizer has optimal statistical error (up to a log term) and projected gradient descent has geometric convergence rates. We demonstrate on both synthetic data and a California wildfire dataset that our method out-performs existing state-of-the-art approaches.
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The problem of machine learning with missing values is common in many areas. A simple approach is to first construct a dataset without missing values simply by discarding instances with missing entries or by imputing a fixed value for each missing entry, and then train a prediction model with the new dataset. A drawback of this naive approach is that the uncertainty in the missing entries is not properly incorporated in the prediction. In order to evaluate prediction uncertainty, the multiple imputation (MI) approach has been studied, but the performance of MI is sensitive to the choice of the probabilistic model of the true values in the missing entries, and the computational cost of MI is high because multiple models must be trained. In this paper, we propose an alternative approach called the Interval-based Prediction Uncertainty Bounding (IPUB) method. The IPUB method represents the uncertainties due to missing entries as intervals, and efficiently computes the lower and upper bounds of the prediction results when all possible training sets constructed by imputing arbitrary values in the intervals are considered. The IPUB method can be applied to a wide class of convex learning algorithms including penalized least-squares regression, support vector machine (SVM), and logistic regression. We demonstrate the advantages of the IPUB method by comparing it with an existing method in numerical experiment with benchmark datasets.
We consider the dynamic assortment optimization problem under the multinomial logit model (MNL) with unknown utility parameters. The main question investigated in this paper is model mis-specification under the $varepsilon$-contamination model, which is a fundamental model in robust statistics and machine learning. In particular, throughout a selling horizon of length $T$, we assume that customers make purchases according to a well specified underlying multinomial logit choice model in a ($1-varepsilon$)-fraction of the time periods, and make arbitrary purchasing decisions instead in the remaining $varepsilon$-fraction of the time periods. In this model, we develop a new robust online assortment optimization policy via an active elimination strategy. We establish both upper and lower bounds on the regret, and show that our policy is optimal up to logarithmic factor in T when the assortment capacity is constant. Furthermore, we develop a fully adaptive policy that does not require any prior knowledge of the contamination parameter $varepsilon$. Our simulation study shows that our policy outperforms the existing policies based on upper confidence bounds (UCB) and Thompson sampling.
In many application settings, the data have missing entries which make analysis challenging. An abundant literature addresses missing values in an inferential framework: estimating parameters and their variance from incomplete tables. Here, we consider supervised-learning settings: predicting a target when missing values appear in both training and testing data. We show the consistency of two approaches in prediction. A striking result is that the widely-used method of imputing with a constant, such as the mean prior to learning is consistent when missing values are not informative. This contrasts with inferential settings where mean imputation is pointed at for distorting the distribution of the data. That such a simple approach can be consistent is important in practice. We also show that a predictor suited for complete observations can predict optimally on incomplete data,through multiple imputation.Finally, to compare imputation with learning directly with a model that accounts for missing values, we analyze further decision trees. These can naturally tackle empirical risk minimization with missing values, due to their ability to handle the half-discrete nature of incomplete variables. After comparing theoretically and empirically different missing values strategies in trees, we recommend using the missing incorporated in attribute method as it can handle both non-informative and informative missing values.
Outliers arise in networks due to different reasons such as fraudulent behavior of malicious users or default in measurement instruments and can significantly impair network analyses. In addition, real-life networks are likely to be incompletely observed, with missing links due to individual non-response or machine failures. Identifying outliers in the presence of missing links is therefore a crucial problem in network analysis. In this work, we introduce a new algorithm to detect outliers in a network that simultaneously predicts the missing links. The proposed method is statistically sound: we prove that, under fairly general assumptions, our algorithm exactly detects the outliers, and achieves the best known error for the prediction of missing links with polynomial computation cost. It is also computationally efficient: we prove sub-linear convergence of our algorithm. We provide a simulation study which demonstrates the good behavior of the algorithm in terms of outliers detection and prediction of the missing links. We also illustrate the method with an application in epidemiology, and with the analysis of a political Twitter network. The method is freely available as an R package on the Comprehensive R Archive Network.
Human annotations serve an important role in computational models where the target constructs under study are hidden, such as dimensions of affect. This is especially relevant in machine learning, where subjective labels derived from related observable signals (e.g., audio, video, text) are needed to support model training and testing. Current research trends focus on correcting artifacts and biases introduced by annotators during the annotation process while fusing them into a single annotation. In this work, we propose a novel annotation approach using triplet embeddings. By lifting the absolute annotation process to relative annotations where the annotator compares individual target constructs in triplets, we leverage the accuracy of comparisons over absolute ratings by human annotators. We then build a 1-dimensional embedding in Euclidean space that is indexed in time and serves as a label for regression. In this setting, the annotation fusion occurs naturally as a union of sets of sampled triplet comparisons among different annotators. We show that by using our proposed sampling method to find an embedding, we are able to accurately represent synthetic hidden constructs in time under noisy sampling conditions. We further validate this approach using human annotations collected from Mechanical Turk and show that we can recover the underlying structure of the hidden construct up to bias and scaling factors.
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