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Register a new userOn the consistency of supervised learning with missing values
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In many application settings, the data have missing entries which make analysis challenging. An abundant literature addresses missing values in an inferential framework: estimating parameters and their variance from incomplete tables. Here, we consider supervised-learning settings: predicting a target when missing values appear in both training and testing data. We show the consistency of two approaches in prediction. A striking result is that the widely-used method of imputing with a constant, such as the mean prior to learning is consistent when missing values are not informative. This contrasts with inferential settings where mean imputation is pointed at for distorting the distribution of the data. That such a simple approach can be consistent is important in practice. We also show that a predictor suited for complete observations can predict optimally on incomplete data,through multiple imputation.Finally, to compare imputation with learning directly with a model that accounts for missing values, we analyze further decision trees. These can naturally tackle empirical risk minimization with missing values, due to their ability to handle the half-discrete nature of incomplete variables. After comparing theoretically and empirically different missing values strategies in trees, we recommend using the missing incorporated in attribute method as it can handle both non-informative and informative missing values.
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The problem of machine learning with missing values is common in many areas. A simple approach is to first construct a dataset without missing values simply by discarding instances with missing entries or by imputing a fixed value for each missing entry, and then train a prediction model with the new dataset. A drawback of this naive approach is that the uncertainty in the missing entries is not properly incorporated in the prediction. In order to evaluate prediction uncertainty, the multiple imputation (MI) approach has been studied, but the performance of MI is sensitive to the choice of the probabilistic model of the true values in the missing entries, and the computational cost of MI is high because multiple models must be trained. In this paper, we propose an alternative approach called the Interval-based Prediction Uncertainty Bounding (IPUB) method. The IPUB method represents the uncertainties due to missing entries as intervals, and efficiently computes the lower and upper bounds of the prediction results when all possible training sets constructed by imputing arbitrary values in the intervals are considered. The IPUB method can be applied to a wide class of convex learning algorithms including penalized least-squares regression, support vector machine (SVM), and logistic regression. We demonstrate the advantages of the IPUB method by comparing it with an existing method in numerical experiment with benchmark datasets.
Recently proposed consistency-based Semi-Supervised Learning (SSL) methods such as the $Pi$-model, temporal ensembling, the mean teacher, or the virtual adversarial training, have advanced the state of the art in several SSL tasks. These methods can typically reach performances that are comparable to their fully supervised counterparts while using only a fraction of labelled examples. Despite these methodological advances, the understanding of these methods is still relatively limited. In this text, we analyse (variations of) the $Pi$-model in settings where analytically tractable results can be obtained. We establish links with Manifold Tangent Classifiers and demonstrate that the quality of the perturbations is key to obtaining reasonable SSL performances. Importantly, we propose a simple extension of the Hidden Manifold Model that naturally incorporates data-augmentation schemes and offers a framework for understanding and experimenting with SSL methods.
Missing data imputation can help improve the performance of prediction models in situations where missing data hide useful information. This paper compares methods for imputing missing categorical data for supervised classification tasks. We experiment on two machine learning benchmark datasets with missing categorical data, comparing classifiers trained on non-imputed (i.e., one-hot encoded) or imputed data with different levels of additional missing-data perturbation. We show imputation methods can increase predictive accuracy in the presence of missing-data perturbation, which can actually improve prediction accuracy by regularizing the classifier. We achieve the state-of-the-art on the Adult dataset with missing-data perturbation and k-nearest-neighbors (k-NN) imputation.
How to learn a good predictor on data with missing values? Most efforts focus on first imputing as well as possible and second learning on the completed data to predict the outcome. Yet, this widespread practice has no theoretical grounding. Here we show that for almost all imputation functions, an impute-then-regress procedure with a powerful learner is Bayes optimal. This result holds for all missing-values mechanisms, in contrast with the classic statistical results that require missing-at-random settings to use imputation in probabilistic modeling. Moreover, it implies that perfect conditional imputation may not be needed for good prediction asymptotically. In fact, we show that on perfectly imputed data the best regression function will generally be discontinuous, which makes it hard to learn. Crafting instead the imputation so as to leave the regression function unchanged simply shifts the problem to learning discontinuous imputations. Rather, we suggest that it is easier to learn imputation and regression jointly. We propose such a procedure, adapting NeuMiss, a neural network capturing the conditional links across observed and unobserved variables whatever the missing-value pattern. Experiments confirm that joint imputation and regression through NeuMiss is better than various two step procedures in our experiments with finite number of samples.
In the context of supervised learning of a function by a Neural Network (NN), we claim and empirically justify that a NN yields better results when the distribution of the data set focuses on regions where the function to learn is steeper. We first traduce this assumption in a mathematically workable way using Taylor expansion. Then, theoretical derivations allow to construct a methodology that we call Variance Based Samples Weighting (VBSW). VBSW uses local variance of the labels to weight the training points. This methodology is general, scalable, cost effective, and significantly increases the performances of a large class of NNs for various classification and regression tasks on image, text and multivariate data. We highlight its benefits with experiments involving NNs from shallow linear NN to Resnet or Bert.
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