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Register a new userRelative occurrence rates of terrestrial planets orbiting FGK stars
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Sheng Jin
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This paper aims to derive a map of relative planet occurrence rates that can provide constraints on the overall distribution of terrestrial planets around FGK stars. Based on the planet candidates in the Kepler DR25 data release, I first generate a continuous density map of planet distribution using a Gaussian kernel model and correct the geometric factor that the discovery space of a transit event decreases along with the increase of planetary orbital distance. Then I fit two exponential decay functions of detection efficiency along with the increase of planetary orbital distance and the decrease of planetary radius. Finally, the density map of planet distribution is compensated for the fitted exponential decay functions of detection efficiency to obtain a relative occurrence rate distribution of terrestrial planets. The result shows two regions with planet abundance: one corresponds to planets with radii between 0.5 and 1.5 R_Earth within 0.2 AU, the other corresponds to planets with radii between 1.5 and 3 R_Earth beyond 0.5 AU. It also confirms the features that may be caused by atmospheric evaporation: there is a vacancy of planets of sizes between 2.0 and 4.0 R_Earth inside of ~ 0.5 AU, and a valley with relatively low occurrence rates between 0.2 and 0.5 AU for planets with radii between 1.5 and 3.0 R_Earth.
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Kepler is a space telescope that searches Sun-like stars for planets. Its major goal is to determine {eta}_Earth, the fraction of Sunlike stars that have planets like Earth. When a planet transits or moves in front of a star, Kepler can measure the concomitant dimming of the starlight. From analysis of the first four months of those measurements for over 150,000 stars, Keplers science team has determined sizes, surface temperatures, orbit sizes and periods for over a thousand new planet candidates. In this paper, we characterize the period probability distribution function of the super-Earth and Neptune planet candidates with periods up to 132 days, and find three distinct period regimes. For candidates with periods below 3 days the density increases sharply with increasing period; for periods between 3 and 30 days the density rises more gradually with increasing period, and for periods longer than 30 days, the density drops gradually with increasing period. We estimate that 1% to 3% of stars like the Sun are expected to have Earth analog planets, based on the Kepler data release of Feb 2011. This estimate of is based on extrapolation from a fiducial subsample of the Kepler planet candidates that we chose to be nominally complete (i.e., no missed detections) to the realm of the Earth-like planets, by means of simple power law models. The accuracy of the extrapolation will improve as more data from the Kepler mission is folded in. Accurate knowledge of {eta}_Earth is essential for the planning of future missions that will image and take spectra of Earthlike planets. Our result that Earths are relatively scarce means that a substantial effort will be needed to identify suitable target stars prior to these future missions.
One core goal of the Kepler mission was to determine the frequency of Earth-like planets that orbit Sun-like stars. Accurately estimating this planet occurrence rate requires both a well-vetted list of planets and a clear understanding of the stars searched for planets. Previous ground-based follow-up observations have, through a variety of methods, sought to improve our knowledge of stars that are known to host planets. Kepler targets without detected planets, however, have not been subjected to the same intensity of follow-up observations. In this paper, we better constrain stellar multiplicity for stars around which Kepler could have theoretically detected a transiting Earth-sized planet in the habitable zone. We subsequently aim to improve estimates of the exoplanet search completeness -- the fraction of exoplanets that were detected by Kepler -- with our analysis. By obtaining adaptive optics observations of 71 Kepler target stars from the Shane 3-m telescope at Lick Observatory, we detected 14 candidate stellar companions within 4 of 13 target stars. Of these 14 candidate stellar companions, we determine through multiple independent methods that 3 are likely to be bound to their corresponding target star. We then assess the impact of our observations on exoplanet occurrence rate calculations, finding an increase in occurrence of 6% (0.9 $sigma$) for various estimates of the frequency of Earth-like planets and an increase of 26% (4.5 $sigma$) for super-Earths and sub-Neptunes. These occurrence increases are not entirely commensurate with theoretical predictions, though this discrepancy may be due to differences in the treatment of stellar binarity.
We present exoplanet occurrence rates estimated with approximate Bayesian computation for planets with radii between 0.5 and 16 $R_{bigoplus}$ and orbital periods between 0.78 and 400 days, orbiting FGK dwarf stars. We base our results on an independent planet catalogue compiled from our search of all ~200,000 stars observed over the Kepler mission, with precise planetary radii supplemented by Gaia DR2-incorporated stellar radii. We take into account detection and vetting efficiency, planet radius uncertainty, and reliability against transit-like noise signals in the data. By analyzing our FGK occurrence rates as well as those computed after separating F-, G-, and K-type stars, we explore dependencies on stellar effective temperature, planet radius, and orbital period. We reveal new characteristics of the photoevaporation-driven radius gap between ~1.5 and 2 $R_{bigoplus}$, indicating that the bimodal distribution previously revealed for $P$ < 100 days exists only over a much narrower range of orbital periods, above which sub-Neptunes dominate and below which super-Earths dominate. Finally, we provide several estimates of the eta-Earth value -- the frequency of potentially habitable, rocky planets orbiting Sun-like stars. For planets with sizes 0.75 - 1.5 $R_{bigoplus}$ orbiting in a conservatively defined habitable zone (0.99 - 1.70 AU) around G-type stars, we place an upper limit (84.1th percentile) of <0.18 planets per star.
We use the optical and near-infrared photometry from the Kepler Input Catalog to provide improved estimates of the stellar characteristics of the smallest stars in the Kepler target list. We find 3897 dwarfs with temperatures below 4000K, including 64 planet candidate host stars orbited by 95 transiting planet candidates. We refit the transit events in the Kepler light curves for these planet candidates and combine the revised planet/star radius ratios with our improved stellar radii to revise the radii of the planet candidates orbiting the cool target stars. We then compare the number of observed planet candidates to the number of stars around which such planets could have been detected in order to estimate the planet occurrence rate around cool stars. We find that the occurrence rate of 0.5-4 Earth radius planets with orbital periods shorter than 50 days is 0.90 (+0.04/-0.03) planets per star. The occurrence rate of Earth-size (0.5-1.4 Earth radius) planets is constant across the temperature range of our sample at 0.51 (+0.06/-0.05) Earth-size planets per star, but the occurrence of 1.4-4 Earth radius planets decreases significantly at cooler temperatures. Our sample includes 2 Earth-size planet candidates in the habitable zone, allowing us to estimate that the mean number of Earth-size planets in the habitable zone is 0.15 (+0.13/-0.06) planets per cool star. Our 95% confidence lower limit on the occurrence rate of Earth-size planets in the habitable zones of cool stars is 0.04 planets per star. With 95% confidence, the nearest transiting Earth-size planet in the habitable zone of a cool star is within 21 pc. Moreover, the nearest non-transiting planet in the habitable zone is within 5 pc with 95% confidence.
Some highly irradiated close-in exoplanets orbit stars showing anomalously low stellar chromospheric emission. We attribute this to absorption by circumstellar gas replenished by mass loss from ablating planets. Here we report statistics validating this hypothesis. Among ~3000 nearby, bright, main sequence stars ~40 show depressed chromospheric emission indicative of undiscovered mass-losing planets. The Dispersed Matter Planet Project uses high precision, high cadence radial velocity measurements to detect these planets. We summarise results for two planetary systems (DMPP-1 and DMPP-3) and fully present observations revealing a Mp sin i = 0.469 M$_{rm J}$ planet in a 5.207 d orbit around the $gamma$-Doradus pulsator HD 11231 (DMPP-2). We have detected short period planets wherever we have made more than 60 RV measurements, demonstrating that we have originated a very efficient method for detecting nearby compact planetary systems. Our shrouded, ablating planetary systems may be a short-lived phase related to the Neptunian desert: i.e. the dearth of intermediate-mass planets at short orbital periods. The circumstellar gas facilitates compositional analysis; allowing empirical exogeology in the cases of sublimating rocky planets. Dispersed Matter Planet Project discoveries will be important for establishing the empirical mass-radius-composition relationship(s) for low mass planets.
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