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Register a new userThe Occurrence Rate of Earth Analog Planets Orbiting Sunlike Stars
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Kepler is a space telescope that searches Sun-like stars for planets. Its major goal is to determine {eta}_Earth, the fraction of Sunlike stars that have planets like Earth. When a planet transits or moves in front of a star, Kepler can measure the concomitant dimming of the starlight. From analysis of the first four months of those measurements for over 150,000 stars, Keplers science team has determined sizes, surface temperatures, orbit sizes and periods for over a thousand new planet candidates. In this paper, we characterize the period probability distribution function of the super-Earth and Neptune planet candidates with periods up to 132 days, and find three distinct period regimes. For candidates with periods below 3 days the density increases sharply with increasing period; for periods between 3 and 30 days the density rises more gradually with increasing period, and for periods longer than 30 days, the density drops gradually with increasing period. We estimate that 1% to 3% of stars like the Sun are expected to have Earth analog planets, based on the Kepler data release of Feb 2011. This estimate of is based on extrapolation from a fiducial subsample of the Kepler planet candidates that we chose to be nominally complete (i.e., no missed detections) to the realm of the Earth-like planets, by means of simple power law models. The accuracy of the extrapolation will improve as more data from the Kepler mission is folded in. Accurate knowledge of {eta}_Earth is essential for the planning of future missions that will image and take spectra of Earthlike planets. Our result that Earths are relatively scarce means that a substantial effort will be needed to identify suitable target stars prior to these future missions.
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This paper aims to derive a map of relative planet occurrence rates that can provide constraints on the overall distribution of terrestrial planets around FGK stars. Based on the planet candidates in the Kepler DR25 data release, I first generate a continuous density map of planet distribution using a Gaussian kernel model and correct the geometric factor that the discovery space of a transit event decreases along with the increase of planetary orbital distance. Then I fit two exponential decay functions of detection efficiency along with the increase of planetary orbital distance and the decrease of planetary radius. Finally, the density map of planet distribution is compensated for the fitted exponential decay functions of detection efficiency to obtain a relative occurrence rate distribution of terrestrial planets. The result shows two regions with planet abundance: one corresponds to planets with radii between 0.5 and 1.5 R_Earth within 0.2 AU, the other corresponds to planets with radii between 1.5 and 3 R_Earth beyond 0.5 AU. It also confirms the features that may be caused by atmospheric evaporation: there is a vacancy of planets of sizes between 2.0 and 4.0 R_Earth inside of ~ 0.5 AU, and a valley with relatively low occurrence rates between 0.2 and 0.5 AU for planets with radii between 1.5 and 3.0 R_Earth.
We use the optical and near-infrared photometry from the Kepler Input Catalog to provide improved estimates of the stellar characteristics of the smallest stars in the Kepler target list. We find 3897 dwarfs with temperatures below 4000K, including 64 planet candidate host stars orbited by 95 transiting planet candidates. We refit the transit events in the Kepler light curves for these planet candidates and combine the revised planet/star radius ratios with our improved stellar radii to revise the radii of the planet candidates orbiting the cool target stars. We then compare the number of observed planet candidates to the number of stars around which such planets could have been detected in order to estimate the planet occurrence rate around cool stars. We find that the occurrence rate of 0.5-4 Earth radius planets with orbital periods shorter than 50 days is 0.90 (+0.04/-0.03) planets per star. The occurrence rate of Earth-size (0.5-1.4 Earth radius) planets is constant across the temperature range of our sample at 0.51 (+0.06/-0.05) Earth-size planets per star, but the occurrence of 1.4-4 Earth radius planets decreases significantly at cooler temperatures. Our sample includes 2 Earth-size planet candidates in the habitable zone, allowing us to estimate that the mean number of Earth-size planets in the habitable zone is 0.15 (+0.13/-0.06) planets per cool star. Our 95% confidence lower limit on the occurrence rate of Earth-size planets in the habitable zones of cool stars is 0.04 planets per star. With 95% confidence, the nearest transiting Earth-size planet in the habitable zone of a cool star is within 21 pc. Moreover, the nearest non-transiting planet in the habitable zone is within 5 pc with 95% confidence.
In the near future we will have ground- and space-based telescopes that are designed to observe and characterize Earth-like planets. While attention is focused on exoplanets orbiting main sequence stars, more than 150 exoplanets have already been detected orbiting red giants, opening the intriguing question of what rocky worlds orbiting in the habitable zone of red giants would be like and how to characterize them. We model reflection and emission spectra of Earth-like planets orbiting in the habitable zone of red giant hosts with surface temperatures between 5200 and 3900 K at the Earth-equivalent distance, as well as model planet spectra throughout the evolution of their hosts. We present a high-resolution spectral database of Earth-like planets orbiting in the red giant habitable zone from the visible to infrared, to assess the feasibility of characterizing atmospheric features including biosignatures for such planets with upcoming ground- and space-based telescopes such as the Extremely Large Telescopes and the James Webb Space Telescope.
The pileup of planets at periods of roughly one year and beyond is actually a bimodal peak with a wide, sharp gap splitting the peak of the pileup in a major population of large planets. Consisting of nearly 40% of planets with periods past 200 days, the periods of the planets of metal-rich stars like the sun in surface gravity which do not have a stellar companion show two strong peaks separated by a sparsely populated region. Monte Carlo tests show that this structure is unlikely to occur in random distributions, and a comparison with objects from all the other populations show that this feature is unlikely to be due to observational effects. The peaks have their highest density next to the gap. These two peaks are most strongly seen in single-planet systems, though the gap persists in multiple planet systems. These features are likely characteristic of planets with masses not too much lower than Jupiter, and perhaps not too much higher. The presence of well-defined features in the period distribution show that planet formation may be much more uniform than previously expected.
Jovian planet formation has been shown to be strongly correlated with host star metallicity, which is thought to be a proxy for disk solids. Observationally, previous works have indicated that jovian planets preferentially form around stars with solar and super solar metallicities. Given these findings, it is challenging to form planets within metal-poor environments, particularly for hot Jupiters that are thought to form via metallicity-dependent core accretion. Although previous studies have conducted planet searches for hot Jupiters around metal-poor stars, they have been limited due to small sample sizes, which are a result of a lack of high-quality data making hot Jupiter occurrence within the metal-poor regime difficult to constrain until now. We use a large sample of halo stars observed by TESS to constrain the upper limit of hot Jupiter occurrence within the metal-poor regime (-2.0 $leq$ [Fe/H] $leq$ -0.6). Placing the most stringent upper limit on hot Jupiter occurrence, we find the mean 1-$sigma$ upper limit to be 0.18 $%$ for radii 0.8 -2 R$_{rm{Jupiter}}$ and periods $0.5- 10$ days. This result is consistent with previous predictions indicating that there exists a certain metallicity below which no planets can form.
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