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Register a new userHow effective are face coverings in reducing transmission of COVID-19?
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In the COVID-19 pandemic, among the more controversial issues is the use of face coverings. To address this we show that the underlying physics ensures particles with diameters & 1 $mu$m are efficiently filtered out by a simple cotton or surgical mask. For particles in the submicron range the efficiency depends on the material properties of the masks, though generally the filtration efficiency in this regime varies between 30 to 60 % and multi-layered cotton masks are expected to be comparable to surgical masks. Respiratory droplets are conventionally divided into coarse droplets (> 5-10 $mu$m) responsible for droplet transmission and aerosols (< 5-10 $mu$m) responsible for airborne transmission. Masks are thus expected to be highly effective at preventing droplet transmission, with their effectiveness limited only by the mask fit, compliance and appropriate usage. By contrast, knowledge of the size distribution of bioaerosols and the likelihood that they contain virus is essential to understanding their effectiveness in preventing airborne transmission. We argue from literature data on SARS-CoV-2 viral loads that the finest aerosols (< 1 $mu$m) are unlikely to contain even a single virion in the majority of cases; we thus expect masks to be effective at reducing the risk of airborne transmission in most settings.
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We analyze risk factors correlated with the initial transmission growth rate of the recent COVID-19 pandemic in different countries. The number of cases follows in its early stages an almost exponential expansion; we chose as a starting point in each country the first day $d_i$ with 30 cases and we fitted for 12 days, capturing thus the early exponential growth. We looked then for linear correlations of the exponents $alpha$ with other variables, for a sample of 126 countries. We find a positive correlation, {it i.e. faster spread of COVID-19}, with high confidence level with the following variables, with respective $p$-value: low Temperature ($4cdot10^{-7}$), high ratio of old vs.~working-age people ($3cdot10^{-6}$), life expectancy ($8cdot10^{-6}$), number of international tourists ($1cdot10^{-5}$), earlier epidemic starting date $d_i$ ($2cdot10^{-5}$), high level of physical contact in greeting habits ($6 cdot 10^{-5}$), lung cancer prevalence ($6 cdot 10^{-5}$), obesity in males ($1 cdot 10^{-4}$), share of population in urban areas ($2cdot10^{-4}$), cancer prevalence ($3 cdot 10^{-4}$), alcohol consumption ($0.0019$), daily smoking prevalence ($0.0036$), UV index ($0.004$, 73 countries). We also find a correlation with low Vitamin D levels ($0.002-0.006$, smaller sample, $sim 50$ countries, to be confirmed on a larger sample). There is highly significant correlation also with blood types: positive correlation with types RH- ($3cdot10^{-5}$) and A+ ($3cdot10^{-3}$), negative correlation with B+ ($2cdot10^{-4}$). Several of the above variables are intercorrelated and likely to have common interpretations. We performed a Principal Component Analysis, in order to find their significant independent linear combinations. We also analyzed a possible bias: countries with low GDP-per capita might have less testing and we discuss correlation with the above variables.
In epidemiological modelling, the instantaneous reproduction number, $R_t$, is important to understand the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. Current $R_t$ estimates often suffer from problems such as lagging, averaging and uncertainties demoting the usefulness of $R_t$. To address these problems, we propose a new method in the framework of sequential Bayesian inference where a Data Assimilation approach is taken for $R_t$ estimation, resulting in the state-of-the-art DAR$_t$ system for $R_t$ estimation. With DAR$_t$, the problem of time misalignment caused by lagging observations is tackled by incorporating observation delays into the joint inference of infections and $R_t$; the drawback of averaging is improved by instantaneous updating upon new observations and a model selection mechanism capturing abrupt changes caused by interventions; the uncertainty is quantified and reduced by employing Bayesian smoothing. We validate the performance of DAR$_t$ through simulations and demonstrate its power in revealing the transmission dynamics of COVID-19.
Disease transmission is studied through disciplines like epidemiology, applied mathematics, and statistics. Mathematical simulation models for transmission have implications in solving public and personal health challenges. The SIR model uses a compartmental approach including dynamic and nonlinear behavior of transmission through three factors: susceptible, infected, and removed (recovered and deceased) individuals. Using the Lambert W Function, we propose a framework to study solutions of the SIR model. This demonstrates the applications of COVID-19 transmission data to model the spread of a real-world disease. Different models of disease including the SIR, SIRm and SEIR model are compared with respect to their ability to predict disease spread. Physical distancing impacts and personal protection equipment use will be discussed in relevance to the COVID-19 spread.
Soft bodies flowing in a channel often exhibit parachute-like shapes usually attributed to an increase of hydrodynamic constraint (viscous stress and/or confinement). We show that the presence of a fluid membrane leads to the reverse phenomenon and build a phase diagram of shapes --- which are classified as bullet, croissant and parachute --- in channels of varying aspect ratio. Unexpectedly, shapes are relatively wider in the narrowest direction of the channel. We highlight the role of flow patterns on the membrane in this response to the asymmetry of stress distribution.
We study the flow of membranal fluid through a ring of immobile particles mimicking, for example, a fence around a membrane corral. We obtain a simple closed-form expression for the permeability coefficient of the ring as a function of the particles line fraction. The analytical results agree with those of numerical calculations and are found to be robust against changes in particle number and corral shape. From the permeability results we infer the collective diffusion coefficient of lipids through the ring and discuss possible implications for collective lipid transport in a crowded membrane.
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