Subscribe to the gold package and get unlimited access to Shamra Academy
Register a new userDoubleEnsemble: A New Ensemble Method Based on Sample Reweighting and Feature Selection for Financial Data Analysis
253
0
0.0
(
0
)
Ask ChatGPT about the research
No Arabic abstract
Modern machine learning models (such as deep neural networks and boosting decision tree models) have become increasingly popular in financial market prediction, due to their superior capacity to extract complex non-linear patterns. However, since financial datasets have very low signal-to-noise ratio and are non-stationary, complex models are often very prone to overfitting and suffer from instability issues. Moreover, as various machine learning and data mining tools become more widely used in quantitative trading, many trading firms have been producing an increasing number of features (aka factors). Therefore, how to automatically select effective features becomes an imminent problem. To address these issues, we propose DoubleEnsemble, an ensemble framework leveraging learning trajectory based sample reweighting and shuffling based feature selection. Specifically, we identify the key samples based on the training dynamics on each sample and elicit key features based on the ablation impact of each feature via shuffling. Our model is applicable to a wide range of base models, capable of extracting complex patterns, while mitigating the overfitting and instability issues for financial market prediction. We conduct extensive experiments, including price prediction for cryptocurrencies and stock trading, using both DNN and gradient boosting decision tree as base models. Our experiment results demonstrate that DoubleEnsemble achieves a superior performance compared with several baseline methods.
rate research
Read More
Much work has been done on feature selection. Existing methods are based on document frequency, such as Chi-Square Statistic, Information Gain etc. However, these methods have two shortcomings: one is that they are not reliable for low-frequency terms, and the other is that they only count whether one term occurs in a document and ignore the term frequency. Actually, high-frequency terms within a specific category are often regards as discriminators. This paper focuses on how to construct the feature selection function based on term frequency, and proposes a new approach based on $t$-test, which is used to measure the diversity of the distributions of a term between the specific category and the entire corpus. Extensive comparative experiments on two text corpora using three classifiers show that our new approach is comparable to or or slightly better than the state-of-the-art feature selection methods (i.e., $chi^2$, and IG) in terms of macro-$F_1$ and micro-$F_1$.
Relevant and high-quality data are critical to successful development of machine learning applications. For machine learning applications on dynamic systems equipped with a large number of sensors, such as connected vehicles and robots, how to find relevant and high-quality data features in an efficient way is a challenging problem. In this work, we address the problem of feature selection in constrained continuous data acquisition. We propose a feedback-based dynamic feature selection algorithm that efficiently decides on the feature set for data collection from a dynamic system in a step-wise manner. We formulate the sequential feature selection procedure as a Markov Decision Process. The machine learning model performance feedback with an exploration component is used as the reward function in an $epsilon$-greedy action selection. Our evaluation shows that the proposed feedback-based feature selection algorithm has superior performance over constrained baseline methods and matching performance with unconstrained baseline methods.
This paper provides a statistical analysis of high-dimensional batch Reinforcement Learning (RL) using sparse linear function approximation. When there is a large number of candidate features, our result sheds light on the fact that sparsity-aware methods can make batch RL more sample efficient. We first consider the off-policy policy evaluation problem. To evaluate a new target policy, we analyze a Lasso fitted Q-evaluation method and establish a finite-sample error bound that has no polynomial dependence on the ambient dimension. To reduce the Lasso bias, we further propose a post model-selection estimator that applies fitted Q-evaluation to the features selected via group Lasso. Under an additional signal strength assumption, we derive a sharper instance-dependent error bound that depends on a divergence function measuring the distribution mismatch between the data distribution and occupancy measure of the target policy. Further, we study the Lasso fitted Q-iteration for batch policy optimization and establish a finite-sample error bound depending on the ratio between the number of relevant features and restricted minimal eigenvalue of the datas covariance. In the end, we complement the results with minimax lower bounds for batch-data policy evaluation/optimization that nearly match our upper bounds. The results suggest that having well-conditioned data is crucial for sparse batch policy learning.
Supervised learning requires a large amount of training data, limiting its application where labeled data is scarce. To compensate for data scarcity, one possible method is to utilize auxiliary tasks to provide additional supervision for the main task. Assigning and optimizing the importance weights for different auxiliary tasks remains an crucial and largely understudied research question. In this work, we propose a method to automatically reweight auxiliary tasks in order to reduce the data requirement on the main task. Specifically, we formulate the weighted likelihood function of auxiliary tasks as a surrogate prior for the main task. By adjusting the auxiliary task weights to minimize the divergence between the surrogate prior and the true prior of the main task, we obtain a more accurate prior estimation, achieving the goal of minimizing the required amount of training data for the main task and avoiding a costly grid search. In multiple experimental settings (e.g. semi-supervised learning, multi-label classification), we demonstrate that our algorithm can effectively utilize limited labeled data of the main task with the benefit of auxiliary tasks compared with previous task reweighting methods. We also show that under extreme cases with only a few extra examples (e.g. few-shot domain adaptation), our algorithm results in significant improvement over the baseline.
Despite success on a wide range of problems related to vision, generative adversarial networks (GANs) often suffer from inferior performance due to unstable training, especially for text generation. To solve this issue, we propose a new variational GAN training framework which enjoys superior training stability. Our approach is inspired by a connection of GANs and reinforcement learning under a variational perspective. The connection leads to (1) probability ratio clipping that regularizes generator training to prevent excessively large updates, and (2) a sample re-weighting mechanism that improves discriminator training by downplaying bad-quality fake samples. Moreover, our variational GAN framework can provably overcome the training issue in many GANs that an optimal discriminator cannot provide any informative gradient to training generator. By plugging the training approach in diverse state-of-the-art GAN architectures, we obtain significantly improved performance over a range of tasks, including text generation, text style transfer, and image generation.
suggested questions
Log in to be able to interact and post comments
comments
Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
