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Register a new userIdentifying Grey-box Thermal Models with Bayesian Neural Networks
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Smart thermostats are one of the most prevalent home automation products. They learn occupant preferences and schedules, and utilize an accurate thermal model to reduce the energy use of heating and cooling equipment while maintaining the temperature for maximum comfort. Despite the importance of having an accurate thermal model for the operation of smart thermostats, fast and reliable identification of this model is still an open problem. In this paper, we explore various techniques for establishing a suitable thermal model using time series data generated by smart thermostats. We show that Bayesian neural networks can be used to estimate parameters of a grey-box thermal model if sufficient training data is available, and this model outperforms several black-box models in terms of the temperature prediction accuracy. Leveraging real data from 8,884 homes equipped with smart thermostats, we discuss how the prior knowledge about the model parameters can be utilized to quickly build an accurate thermal model for another home with similar floor area and age in the same climate zone. Moreover, we investigate how to adapt the model originally built for the same home in another season using a small amount of data collected in this season. Our results confirm that maintaining only a small number of pre-trained thermal models will suffice to quickly build accurate thermal models for many other homes, and that 1~day smart thermostat data could significantly improve the accuracy of transferred models in another season.
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This paper develops a grey-box approach to small-signal stability analysis of complex power systems that facilitates root-cause tracing without requiring disclosure of the full details of the internal control structure of apparatus connected to the system. The grey-box enables participation analysis in impedance models, which is popular in power electronics and increasingly accepted in power systems for stability analysis. The Impedance participation factor is proposed and defined in terms of the residue of the whole-system admittance matrix. It is proved that, the so defined impedance participation factor equals the sensitivity of the whole-system eigenvalue with respect to apparatus impedance. The classic state participation factor is related to the impedance participation factor via a chain-rule. Based on the chain-rule, a three-layer grey-box approach, with three degrees of transparency, is proposed for root-cause tracing to different depths, i.e. apparatus, states, and parameters, according to the available information. The association of impedance participation factor with eigenvalue sensitivity points to the re-tuning that would stabilize the system. The impedance participation factor can be measured in the field or calculated from the black-box impedance spectra with little prior knowledge required.
Ensembles of geophysical models improve projection accuracy and express uncertainties. We develop a novel data-driven ensembling strategy for combining geophysical models using Bayesian Neural Networks, which infers spatiotemporally varying model weights and bias while accounting for heteroscedastic uncertainties in the observations. This produces more accurate and uncertainty-aware projections without sacrificing interpretability. Applied to the prediction of total column ozone from an ensemble of 15 chemistry-climate models, we find that the Bayesian neural network ensemble (BayNNE) outperforms existing ensembling methods, achieving a 49.4% reduction in RMSE for temporal extrapolation, and a 67.4% reduction in RMSE for polar data voids, compared to a weighted mean. Uncertainty is also well-characterized, with 90.6% of the data points in our extrapolation validation dataset lying within 2 standard deviations and 98.5% within 3 standard deviations.
We design and implement from scratch a new fuzzer called SIVO that refines multiple stages of grey-box fuzzing. First, SIVO refines data-flow fuzzing in two ways: (a) it provides a new taint inference engine that requires only logarithmic in the input size number of tests to infer the dependency of all program branches on the input bytes, and (b) it deploys a novel method for inverting branches by solving directly and efficiently systems of inequalities. Second, our fuzzer refines accurate tracking and detection of code coverage with simple and easily implementable methods. Finally, SIVO refines selection of parameters and strategies by parameterizing all stages of fuzzing and then dynamically selecting optimal values during fuzzing. Thus the fuzzer can easily adapt to a target program and rapidly increase coverage. We compare our fuzzer to 11 other state-of-the-art grey-box fuzzers on 27 popular benchmarks. Our evaluation shows that SIVO scores the highest both in terms of code coverage and in terms of number of found vulnerabilities.
Data-driven fault diagnosis is complicated by unknown fault classes and limited training data from different fault realizations. In these situations, conventional multi-class classification approaches are not suitable for fault diagnosis. One solution is the use of anomaly classifiers that are trained using only nominal data. Anomaly classifiers can be used to detect when a fault occurs but give little information about its root cause. Hybrid fault diagnosis methods combining physically-based models and available training data have shown promising results to improve fault classification performance and identify unknown fault classes. Residual generation using grey-box recurrent neural networks can be used for anomaly classification where physical insights about the monitored system are incorporated into the design of the machine learning algorithm. In this work, an automated residual design is developed using a bipartite graph representation of the system model to design grey-box recurrent neural networks and evaluated using a real industrial case study. Data from an internal combustion engine test bench is used to illustrate the potentials of combining machine learning and model-based fault diagnosis techniques.
Many state estimation algorithms must be tuned given the state space process and observation models, the process and observation noise parameters must be chosen. Conventional tuning approaches rely on heuristic hand-tuning or gradient-based optimization techniques to minimize a performance cost function. However, the relationship between tuned noise values and estimator performance is highly nonlinear and stochastic. Therefore, the tuning solutions can easily get trapped in local minima, which can lead to poor choices of noise parameters and suboptimal estimator performance. This paper describes how Bayesian Optimization (BO) can overcome these issues. BO poses optimization as a Bayesian search problem for a stochastic ``black box cost function, where the goal is to search the solution space to maximize the probability of improving the current best solution. As such, BO offers a principled approach to optimization-based estimator tuning in the presence of local minima and performance stochasticity. While extended Kalman filters (EKFs) are the main focus of this work, BO can be similarly used to tune other related state space filters. The method presented here uses performance metrics derived from normalized innovation squared (NIS) filter residuals obtained via sensor data, which renders knowledge of ground-truth states unnecessary. The robustness, accuracy, and reliability of BO-based tuning is illustrated on practical nonlinear state estimation problems,losed-loop aero-robotic control.
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