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Register a new userBrownian snails with removal: pandemics in a diffusing population
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A stochastic model of susceptible/infected/removed (SIR) type, inspired by COVID-19, is introduced for the spread of infection through a spatially-distributed population. Individuals are initially distributed at random in space, and they move continuously according to independent random processes. The disease may pass from an infected individual to an uninfected individual when they are sufficiently close. Infected individuals are permanently removed at some given rate $alpha$. Two models are studied here, termed the delayed diffusion and the diffusion models. In the first, individuals are stationary until they are infected, at which time they begin to move; in the second, all individuals start to move at the initial time $0$. Using a perturbative argument, conditions are established under which the disease infects a.s. only finitely many individuals. It is proved for the delayed diffusion model that there exists a critical value $alpha_cin(0,infty)$ for the existence of a pandemic.
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Local perturbations of a Brownian motion are considered. As a limit we obtain a non-Markov process that behaves as a reflected Brownian motion on the positive half line until its local time at zero reaches some exponential level, then changes a sign and behaves as a reflected Brownian motion on the negative half line until some stopping time, etc.
Motivated by its relevance for the study of perturbations of one-dimensional voter models, including stochastic Potts models at low temperature, we consider diffusively rescaled coalescing random walks with branching and killing. Our main result is convergence to a new continuum process, in which the random space-time paths of the Sun-Swart Brownian net are terminated at a Poisson cloud of killing points. We also prove existence of a percolation transition as the killing rate varies. Key issues for convergence are the relations of the discrete model killing points and their Poisson intensity measure to the continuum counterparts.
Consider a storage system where the content is driven by a Brownian motion absent control. At any time, one may increase or decrease the content at a cost proportional to the amount of adjustment. A decrease of the content takes effect immediately, while an increase is realized after a fixed lead time $lt$. Holding costs are incurred continuously over time and are a convex function of the content. The objective is to find a control policy that minimizes the expected present value of the total costs. Due to the positive lead time for upward adjustments, one needs to keep track of all the outstanding upward adjustments as well as the actual content at time $t$ as there may also be downward adjustments during $[t,t+lt)$, i.e., the state of the system is a function on $[0,ell]$. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to study instantaneous control of stochastic systems in such a functional setting. We first extend the concept of $L^ atural$-convexity to function spaces and establish the $L^ atural$-convexity of the optimal cost function. We then derive various properties of the cost function and identify the structure of the optimal policy as a state-dependent two-sided reflection mapping making the minimum amount of adjustment necessary to keep the system states within a certain region.
We consider a model of a population of fixed size $N$ undergoing selection. Each individual acquires beneficial mutations at rate $mu_N$, and each beneficial mutation increases the individuals fitness by $s_N$. Each individual dies at rate one, and when a death occurs, an individual is chosen with probability proportional to the individuals fitness to give birth. Under certain conditions on the parameters $mu_N$ and $s_N$, we show that the genealogy of the population can be described by the Bolthausen-Sznitman coalescent. This result confirms predictions of Desai, Walczak, and Fisher (2013), and Neher and Hallatschek (2013).
We introduce $n$-parameter $Rd$-valued Brownian-time Brownian sheet (BTBS): a Brownian sheet where each time parameter is replaced with the modulus of an independent Brownian motion. We then connect BTBS to a new system of $n$ linear, fourth order, and interacting PDEs and to a corresponding fourth order interacting nonlinear PDE. The coupling phenomenon is a result of the interaction between the Brownian sheet, through its variance, and the Brownian motions in the BTBS; and it leads to an intricate, intriguing, and random field generalization of our earlier Brownian-time-processes (BTPs) connection to fourth order linear PDEs. Our BTBS does not belong to the classical theory of random fields; and to prove our new PDEs connections, we generalize our BTP approach in cite{Abtp1,Abtp2} and we mix it with the Brownian sheet connection to a linear PDE system, which we also give along with its corresponding nonlinear second order PDE and $2n$-th order linear PDE. In addition, we introduce the $n$-parameter $d$-dimensional linear Kuramoto-Sivashinsky (KS) sheet kernel (or transition density); and we link it to an intimately connected system of new linear Kuramoto-Sivashinsky-variant interacting PDEs, generalizing our earlier one parameter imaginary-Brownian-time-Brownian-angle kernel and its connection to the KS PDE. The interactions here mean that our PDEs systems are to be solved for a family of functions, a feature shared with well known fluids dynamics models. The interacting PDEs connections established here open up another new fundamental front in the rapidly growing field of iterated-type processes and their connections to both new and important higher order PDEs and to some equivalent fractional Cauchy problems. We connect the BTBS fourth order interacting PDEs system given here with an interacting fractional PDE system and further study it in another article.
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