Subscribe to the gold package and get unlimited access to Shamra Academy
Register a new userDeforestation and world population sustainability: a quantitative analysis
44
0
0.0
(
0
)
Ask ChatGPT about the research
No Arabic abstract
In this paper we afford a quantitative analysis of the sustainability of current world population growth in relation to the parallel deforestation process adopting a statistical point of view. We consider a simplified model based on a stochastic growth process driven by a continuous time random walk, which depicts the technological evolution of human kind, in conjunction with a deterministic generalised logistic model for humans-forest interaction and we evaluate the probability of avoiding the self-destruction of our civilisation. Based on the current resource consumption rates and best estimate of technological rate growth our study shows that we have very low probability, less than 10% in most optimistic estimate, to survive without facing a catastrophic collapse.
rate research
Read More
Macroscopic growth laws, solutions of mean field equations, describe in an effective way an underlying complex dynamics. They are applied to study the spreading of infections, as in the case of CoviD-19, where the counting of the cumulated number $N(t)$ of detected infected individuals is a generally accepted, coarse-grain, variable to understand the epidemic phase. However $N(t)$ does not take into account the unknown number of asymptomatic, not detected, cases $A(t)$. Therefore, the question arises if the observed time series of data of $N(t)$ is a reliable tool for monitoring the evolution of the infectious disease. We study a system of coupled differential equations which includes the dynamics of the spreading among symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals and the strong containment effects due to the social isolation. The solution is therefore compared with a macroscopic law for the population $N(t)$ coming from a single, non-linear, differential equation with no explicit reference to $A(t)$, showing the equivalence of the two methods. Indeed, $N(t)$ takes into account a more complex and detailed population dynamics which permits the evaluation of the number of asymptomatic individuals also. The model is then applied to Covid-19 spreading in Italy where a transition from an exponential behavior to a Gompertz growth for $N(t)$ has been observed in more recent data. Then the information contained in the data analysis of $N(t)$ is reliable to understand the epidemic phase, although it does not describe the total infected population. The asymptomatic population is larger than the symptomatic one in the fast growth phase of the spreading.
We propose a mathematical model to analyze the time evolution of the total number of infected population with Covid-19 disease at a region in the ongoing pandemic. Using the available data of Covid-19 infected population on various countries we formulate a model which can successfully track the time evolution from early days to the saturation period in a given wave of this infectious disease. It involves a set of effective parameters which can be extracted from the available data. Using those parameters the future trajectories of the disease spread can also be projected. A set of differential equations is also proposed whose solutions are these time evolution trajectories. Using such a formalism we project the future time evolution trajectories of infection spread for a number of countries where the Covid-19 infection is still rapidly rising.
In this paper, we investigate a novel 3-compartment model of HIV infection of CD4$^+$ T-cells with a mass action term by including t
A second wave of SARS-CoV-2 is unfolding in dozens of countries. However, this second wave manifests itself strongly in new reported cases, but less in death counts compared to the first wave. Over the past three months in Germany, the reported cases increased by a factor five or more, whereas the death counts hardly grew. This discrepancy fueled speculations that the rise of reported cases would not reflect a second wave but only wider testing. We find that this apparent discrepancy can be explained to a large extent by the age structure of the infected, and predict a pronounced increase of death counts in the near future, as the spread once again expands into older age groups. To re-establish control, and to avoid the tipping point when TTI capacity is exceeded, case numbers have to be lowered. Otherwise the control of the spread and the protection of vulnerable people will require more restrictive measures latest when the hospital capacity is reached.
In order to analyze the effectiveness of three successive nationwide lockdown enforced in India, we present a data-driven analysis of four key parameters, reducing the transmission rate, restraining the growth rate, flattening the epidemic curve and improving the health care system. These were quantified by the consideration of four different metrics, namely, reproduction rate, growth rate, doubling time and death to recovery ratio. The incidence data of the COVID-19 (during the period of 2nd March 2020 to 31st May 2020) outbreak in India was analyzed for the best fit to the epidemic curve, making use of the exponential growth, the maximum likelihood estimation, sequential Bayesian method and estimation of time-dependent reproduction. The best fit (based on the data considered) was for the time-dependent approach. Accordingly, this approach was used to assess the impact on the effective reproduction rate. The period of pre-lockdown to the end of lockdown 3, saw a $45%$ reduction in the rate of effective reproduction rate. During the same period the growth rate reduced from $393%$ during the pre-lockdown to $33%$ after lockdown 3, accompanied by the average doubling time increasing form $4$-$6$ days to $12$-$14$ days. Finally, the death-to-recovery ratio dropped from $0.28$ (pre-lockdown) to $0.08$ after lockdown 3. In conclusion, all the four metrics considered to assess the effectiveness of the lockdown, exhibited significant favourable changes, from the pre-lockdown period to the end of lockdown 3. Analysis of the data in the post-lockdown period with these metrics will provide greater clarity with regards to the extent of the success of the lockdown.
Log in to be able to interact and post comments
comments
Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
