Subscribe to the gold package and get unlimited access to Shamra Academy
Register a new userComputational model on COVID-19 Pandemic using Probabilistic Cellular Automata
175
0
0.0
(
0
)
Ask ChatGPT about the research
No Arabic abstract
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) which is caused by SARS-COV2 has become a pandemic. This disease is highly infectious and potentially fatal, causing a global public health concern. To contain the spread of COVID-19, governments are adopting nationwide interventions, like lockdown, containment and quarantine, restrictions on travel, cancelling social events and extensive testing. To understand the effects of these measures on the control of the epidemic in a data-driven manner, we propose a probabilistic cellular automata (PCA) based modified SEIQR model. The transitions associated with the model is driven by data available on chronology, symptoms, pathogenesis and transmissivity of the virus. By arguing that the lattice-based model captures the features of the dynamics along with the existing fluctuations, we perform rigorous computational analyses of the model to take into account of the spatial dynamics of social distancing measures imposed on the people. Considering the probabilistic behavioural aspects associated with mitigation strategies, we study the model considering factors like population density and testing efficiency. Using the model, we focus on the variability of epidemic dynamics data for different countries and point out the reasons behind these contrasting observations. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to model COVID-19 spread using PCA that gives us both spatial and temporal variations of the infection spread with the insight about the contributions of different infection parameters.
rate research
Read More
The complexity of cellular automata is traditionally measured by their computational capacity. However, it is difficult to choose a challenging set of computational tasks suitable for the parallel nature of such systems. We study the ability of automata to emulate one another, and we use this notion to define such a set of naturally emerging tasks. We present the results for elementary cellular automata, although the core ideas can be extended to other computational systems. We compute a graph showing which elementary cellular automata can be emulated by which and show that certain chaotic automata are the only ones that cannot emulate any automata non-trivially. Finally, we use the emulation notion to suggest a novel definition of chaos that we believe is suitable for discrete computational systems. We believe our work can help design parallel computational systems that are Turing-complete and also computationally efficient.
As the recent COVID-19 outbreak rapidly expands all over the world, various containment measures have been carried out to fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. In Mainland China, the containment measures consist of three types, i.e., Wuhan travel ban, intra-city quarantine and isolation, and inter-city travel restriction. In order to carry out the measures, local economy and information acquisition play an important role. In this paper, we investigate the correlation of local economy and the information acquisition on the execution of containment measures to fight against the COVID-19 pandemic in Mainland China. First, we use a parsimonious model, i.e., SIR-X model, to estimate the parameters, which represent the execution of intra-city quarantine and isolation in major cities of Mainland China. In order to understand the execution of intra-city quarantine and isolation, we analyze the correlation between the representative parameters including local economy, mobility, and information acquisition. To this end, we collect the data of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the inflows from Wuhan and outflows, and the COVID-19 related search frequency from a widely-used Web mapping service, i.e., Baidu Maps, and Web search engine, i.e., Baidu Search Engine, in Mainland China. Based on the analysis, we confirm the strong correlation between the local economy and the execution of information acquisition in major cities of Mainland China. We further evidence that, although the cities with high GDP per capita attracts bigger inflows from Wuhan, people are more likely to conduct the quarantine measure and to reduce going out to other cities. Finally, the correlation analysis using search data shows that well-informed individuals are likely to carry out containment measures.
COVID-19 pandemic is severely impacting the lives of billions across the globe. Even after taking massive protective measures like nation-wide lockdowns, discontinuation of international flight services, rigorous testing etc., the infection spreading is still growing steadily, causing thousands of deaths and serious socio-economic crisis. Thus, the identification of the major factors of this infection spreading dynamics is becoming crucial to minimize impact and lifetime of COVID-19 and any future pandemic. In this work, a probabilistic cellular automata based method has been employed to model the infection dynamics for a significant number of different countries. This study proposes that for an accurate data-driven modeling of this infection spread, cellular automata provides an excellent platform, with a sequential genetic algorithm for efficiently estimating the parameters of the dynamics. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to understand and interpret COVID-19 data using optimized cellular automata, through genetic algorithm. It has been demonstrated that the proposed methodology can be flexible and robust at the same time, and can be used to model the daily active cases, total number of infected people and total death cases through systematic parameter estimation. Elaborate analyses for COVID-19 statistics of forty countries from different continents have been performed, with markedly divergent time evolution of the infection spreading because of demographic and socioeconomic factors. The substantial predictive power of this model has been established with conclusions on the key players in this pandemic dynamics.
The declaration of COVID-19 as a pandemic has largely amplified the spread of related information on social media, such as Twitter, Facebook, and WeChat.Unlike the previous studies which focused on how to detect the misinformation or fake news related toCOVID-19, we investigate how the disease and information co-evolve in the population. We focus onCOVID-19and its information during the period when the disease was widely spread in China, i.e., from January 25th to March 24th, 2020. We first explore how the disease and information co-evolve via the spatial analysis of the two spreading processes. We visualize the geo-location of both disease and information at the province level and find that disease is more geo-localized compared to information. We find a high correlation between the disease and information data, and also people care about the spread only when it comes to their neighborhood. Regard to the content of the information, we find that positive messages are more negatively correlated with the disease compared to negative and neutral messages. Additionally, we introduce machine learning algorithms, i.e., linear regression and random forest, to further predict the number of infected using different disease spatial related and information-related characteristics. We obtain that the disease spatial related characteristics of nearby cities can help to improve the prediction accuracy. Meanwhile, information-related characteristics can also help to improve the prediction performance, but with a delay, i.e., the improvement comes from using, for instance, the number of messages 10 days ago, for disease prediction. The methodology proposed in this paper may shed light on new clues of emerging infections
Using a random 10% sample of tweets authored from 2019-09-01 through 2020-04-30, we analyze the dynamic behavior of words (1-grams) used on Twitter to describe the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Across 24 languages, we find two distinct dynamic regimes: One characterizing the rise and subsequent collapse in collective attention to the initial Coronavirus outbreak in late January, and a second that represents March COVID-19-related discourse. Aggregating countries by dominant language use, we find that volatility in the first dynamic regime is associated with future volatility in new cases of COVID-19 roughly three weeks (average 22.49 $pm$ 3.26 days) later. Our results suggest that surveillance of change in usage of epidemiology-related words on social media may be useful in forecasting later change in disease case numbers, but we emphasize that our current findings are not causal or necessarily predictive.
Log in to be able to interact and post comments
comments
Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
