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Register a new userDeep learning of contagion dynamics on complex networks
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Forecasting the evolution of contagion dynamics is still an open problem to which mechanistic models only offer a partial answer. To remain mathematically or computationally tractable, these models must rely on simplifying assumptions, thereby limiting the quantitative accuracy of their predictions and the complexity of the dynamics they can model. Here, we propose a complementary approach based on deep learning where the effective local mechanisms governing a dynamic on a network are learned from time series data. Our graph neural network architecture makes very few assumptions about the dynamics, and we demonstrate its accuracy using different contagion dynamics of increasing complexity. By allowing simulations on arbitrary network structures, our approach makes it possible to explore the properties of the learned dynamics beyond the training data. Finally, we illustrate the applicability of our approach using real data of the COVID-19 outbreak in Spain. Our results demonstrate how deep learning offers a new and complementary perspective to build effective models of contagion dynamics on networks.
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The threshold model has been widely adopted as a classic model for studying contagion processes on social networks. We consider asymmetric individual interactions in social networks and introduce a persuasion mechanism into the threshold model. Specifically, we study a combination of adoption and persuasion in cascading processes on complex networks. It is found that with the introduction of the persuasion mechanism, the system may become more vulnerable to global cascades, and the effects of persuasion tend to be more significant in heterogeneous networks than those in homogeneous networks: a comparison between heterogeneous and homogeneous networks shows that under weak persuasion, heterogeneous networks tend to be more robust against random shocks than homogeneous networks; whereas under strong persuasion, homogeneous networks are more stable. Finally, we study the effects of adoption and persuasion threshold heterogeneity on systemic stability. Though both heterogeneities give rise to global cascades, the adoption heterogeneity has an overwhelmingly stronger impact than the persuasion heterogeneity when the network connectivity is sufficiently dense.
We consider networks of dynamical units that evolve in time according to different laws, and are coupled to each other in highly irregular ways. Studying how to steer the dynamics of such systems towards a desired evolution is of great practical interest in many areas of science, as well as providing insight into the interplay between network structure and dynamical behavior. We propose a pinning protocol for imposing specific dynamic evolutions compatible with the equations of motion on a networked system. The method does not impose any restrictions on the local dynamics, which may vary from node to node, nor on the interactions between nodes, which may adopt in principle any nonlinear mathematical form and be represented by weighted, directed or undirected, links. We first explore our method on small synthetic networks of chaotic oscillators, which allows us to unveil a correlation between the ordered sequence of pinned nodes and their topological influence in the network. We then consider a 12-species trophic web network, which is a model of a mammalian food web. By pinning a relatively small number of species, one can make the system abandon its spontaneous evolution from its (typically uncontrolled) initial state towards a target dynamics, or periodically control it so as to make the populations evolve within stipulated bounds. The relevance of these findings for environment management and conservation is discussed.
We develop a theoretical framework for the study of epidemic-like social contagion in large scale social systems. We consider the most general setting in which different communication platforms or categories form multiplex networks. Specifically, we propose a contact-based information spreading model, and show that the critical point of the multiplex system associated to the active phase is determined by the layer whose contact probability matrix has the largest eigenvalue. The framework is applied to a number of different situations, including a real multiplex system. Finally, we also show that when the system through which information is disseminating is inherently multiplex, working with the graph that results from the aggregation of the different layers is flawed.
Power grids, road maps, and river streams are examples of infrastructural networks which are highly vulnerable to external perturbations. An abrupt local change of load (voltage, traffic density, or water level) might propagate in a cascading way and affect a significant fraction of the network. Almost discontinuous perturbations can be modeled by shock waves which can eventually interfere constructively and endanger the normal functionality of the infrastructure. We study their dynamics by solving the Burgers equation under random perturbations on several real and artificial directed graphs. Even for graphs with a narrow distribution of node properties (e.g., degree or betweenness), a steady state is reached exhibiting a heterogeneous load distribution, having a difference of one order of magnitude between the highest and average loads. Unexpectedly we find for the European power grid and for finite Watts-Strogatz networks a broad pronounced bimodal distribution for the loads. To identify the most vulnerable nodes, we introduce the concept of node-basin size, a purely topological property which we show to be strongly correlated to the average load of a node.
Our understanding of the dynamics of complex networked systems has increased significantly in the last two decades. However, most of our knowledge is built upon assuming pairwise relations among the systems components. This is often an oversimplification, for instance, in social interactions that occur frequently within groups. To overcome this limitation, here we study the dynamics of social contagion on hypergraphs. We develop an analytical framework and provide numerical results for arbitrary hypergraphs, which we also support with Monte Carlo simulations. Our analyses show that the model has a vast parameter space, with first and second-order transitions, bi-stability, and hysteresis. Phenomenologically, we also extend the concept of latent heat to social contexts, which might help understanding oscillatory social behaviors. Our work unfolds the research line of higher-order models and the analytical treatment of hypergraphs, posing new questions and paving the way for modeling dynamical processes on these networks.
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